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Friday, December 28, 2007

The Sexuality of Jihad

"You see, you are an American, you can go home anytime and have sex with your girlfriend, this my friend is Lebanon, not Boston," said a member of Hezbollah who I was discussing Lebanon with. I tried to offer a retort saying that many religious Christians take a vow of chastity in the United States and most of them don't blow things up. "Our cultures are different, you can have what you want, we wait," he answered. I pushed the conversation to the back of my mind for months since I've come back from Lebanon, but does sex offer a valid excuse for why many Muslim males go off and feel the need to fight?
At a 2002 Harvard "Conference on Religion and Terrorism" Professor of Sociology and Religious Studies
Mark Juergensmeyer and Terrorism lecturer Jessica Stern noted by Bruce Fudge in the Boston Globe:

The overwhelming majority of terrorists, they noted, are young, single males. A recurrent theme in interviews with these men is one of personal humiliation and feelings of victimization. According to Stern, Ayman al-Zawahiri, deputy to Osama bin Laden, has himself stated that "violence is a way out of humiliation." This humiliation may be fueled by sexual or marital frustration, commented Stern. She cited the example of Mir Aimal Kasi, the Pakistani national who was recently executed in Virginia for the murder of two CIA employees, and who told Stern that if his mother had been alive, he might not have killed anyone - because, she explained, "she would have made sure he was married." Another extremist interviewed by Stern referred to himself as "vaginally defeated." Juergensmeyer bluntly summed up: "Can't get married, can't have sex, so they blow things up."

Not every speaker found this line of argument persuasive. If the United States bombs Iraq, asked Ivan Eland, director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute, "will bin Laden and al-Zawahiri be sitting in a cave somewhere, wondering if Cheney and Wolfowitz are getting enough sex?"

So, is sex the answer? It must play some part to the logic of a young man plotting to blow himself up among a group of whom he considers an "infidel." Remember, when this young person goes off to paradise, he is to get some 72 virgins; not a bad deal for a sex deprived teenager or twenty something. Still, for those who claim that it is ALL about sexuality is the reason why so many decide to kill, there is much proof to refute that. In Israel a number of Palestinian women have been recruited to carry out suicide bombings, including some who have had children. Others like the Chechnyan "Black Widows" threatened to blow themselves up as well, their reasoning was because their husbands were killed by Russians. That reason has less to do with sex, and more to do with revenge.

The religious character of many of these bombers is also ignored. The Quran itself has 111 violent passages and glorifies martyrdom and jihad. Couldn't that be used to explain the violence generated by young suicide bombers? When the Iran-Iraq War is mentioned in most academic circles the notion of a "Shi'ite's yearning for martyrdom" is often brought up. In Iran today there are numerous martyr monuments and even a cemetery with a "blood" (red water) fountain. One of the main stories that essentially led to the real establishment of Shi'ism was the martyrdom of Ali, and subsequent murders of early Shi'ites by the Sunnis. Martyrdom is at the HEART of Shi'ism, so, how can it be about sex? Iran may be one of the most repressive theocratic states this side of the Ganges, but rrecently there was 60 Minutes program showing how many young Iranians are having wild parties (wild by Iranian standards, its not like I'm referring to some insane fiesta down in Alston [a popular area for Boston University parties]) complete with sexual interaction and liquor. I'm betting the mullahs don't like that, but still, if these parties are going on, albeit in secret, many Iranians still have that jihadist drive.

In Sri Lanka the Liberation Tigers of the Tamil Elan (LTTE) have perfected the "art" of suicide bombing in much the way Hamas has done so in Ramallah. TIME's Alex Perry spent time with the Tigers,

Apart from a burning desire to die before she got old, Eraj Samandi was about as far removed from traditional teenage preoccupations as an 18-year-old could get. She didn't care about clothes, music or parties. She couldn't remember the last time she had to study for a test. And as for boys, she dismissed all the men in Sri Lanka with a fierce frown and sharp shake of the head.

But asked when she hoped to achieve her dream of being a suicide bomber, she grinned, squirmed and buried her face in her arms. "She's already written her application," said her commander, Lt. Col. Dewarsara Banu, smiling at her charge's shyness. "But there's still no reply." "Why hasn't there been a reply?" whined Samandi, looking up with the one eye, her left, that survived a shot to the head and fiddling with the capsule of cyanide powder around her neck. "I want this. I want to be a Black Tiger. I want to blast myself for freedom."

...Almost nothing in Samandi's life was left to personal choice. The only jewelry the Tiger women can wear are three dog tags, around the wrist, neck and waist that ensure identification of even the most dismembered of bodies. The Tigers enforce a hairstyle of two plaits tied in loops across the back of the head to avoid, so they say, hair snagging on bushes during an attack. Music is limited to revolutionary songs. The photos that plastered Samandi's bedroom walls were of dead suicide bombers, not pop stars. And movies in Tiger territory were a strict diet of action flicks, both homemade efforts using real war footage and Hollywood shoot-�em-ups. For unmarried Samandi, sex or even holding hands, like cigarettes and alcohol, was banned. The Tiger leadership also reserved the right to prevent any marriage it deemed unsuitable — that is, outside L.T.T.E ranks — and sometimes arranged unions between guerrillas.

But for dedicated soldiers like Samandi, earthly freedoms did not matter. She had made up her mind to kill and to die, and her disappointment at taking part in just one battle before the cease-fire, and surviving, was palpable. "Five of my friends died in that attack," says Samandi, "I was very sad for them.

As stated, the girl had little interest in boys, she instead said a rhetorical sounding, "I want to blast myself for freedom." Of course the sexual aspect reared its head when it was noted how women were forbidden to have sex or marry outside of who their commanders wanted, but the girl does not cite that as a reason for her yearning to blow herself up. Additionally, many sociologists who claim sex as the leading reason for persuading many into the "suicide bomber line of work" don't seem to acknowledge that many Muslim terrorists, like their Hindu counterparts in the LTTE are also not allowed liquor (wine/liquor is expressly banned in the Quran). Couldn't one technically say that the banning of liquor ALSO drove many to kill themselves? When many are entering puberty (around age 13) both liquor and sex is banned, so far I haven't seen many 13 year olds "die for the sake of Allah."

I am not saying sexuality doesn't play a part in the brain of a would be "shahid," but for one to assert that it is the MAIN reason many run off to die, it really leaves out innumerable other reason.


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To Everyone out in Computerland Happy New Year; I hope 2008 is great for everyone!

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Thursday, November 22, 2007

Addendum To My Last Post

Saw this in the Times:

From
November 23, 2007

Rival factions return to arms as Lebanon stares into the abyss

The centre of Beirut will be a sealed-off military zone today as MPs gather to elect a new president in a last-ditch attempt to prevent Lebanon from plunging into chaos and violence.

Émile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian head of state, leaves office at midnight today, but despite intense international mediation, no agreement appears to have been reached on a new president acceptable to the bitterly divided political camps.

The US-backed March 14 block, which holds a slim majority, has said that it will attend today’s session of parliament and threatened to elect a president from their own ranks if a consensus candidate is not found.

But the pro-Syrian Opposition, led by the powerful Shia Hezbollah party, says that it will boycott the election and has hinted it will respond by forming a rival government, a move that many Lebanese fear will lead to violence between heavily armed rival factions and tear the country apart.

That grim outlook appeared to draw closer last night with political sources saying that the continued lack of agreement could lead to the election being postponed, plunging Lebanon into constitutional limbo.

“Last day before zero hour: either a miracle or vacuum,” the An-Nahar daily headline said yesterday.

The foreign ministers of France, Spain and Italy are in Beirut shuttling between political leaders to push for agreement over the choice of president. In a further sign of international concern, President Sarkozy of France spoke by phone on Wednesday to Saad Hariri, head of the antiSyrian block, and Michel Aoun, the opposition candidate for president.

All three European countries contribute to a 13,300-strong United Nations peacekeeping force in south Lebanon and are aware that their soldiers would be at even greater risk if Lebanon fell apart.

Also at risk are MPs belonging to the March 14 block, more than 40 of whom have spent the past two months holed up in an annex of the five-star Phoenicia hotel in central Beirut. Four of their colleagues have been murdered since the June 2005 general election. Visitors pass through metal detectors and are escorted by bodyguards to meeting rooms.

The curtains are kept closed to avoid sniper fire. On the rare occasions MPs travel, they go in small unmarked cars and remove the chips from their mobile phones so that they cannot be tracked.

“The guys are all depressed staying here. It’s like a prison,” said Mosbah Ahdab, an MP from Tripoli, who moved into the hotel on Monday.

In an attempt to break the impasse last week, France persuaded Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir, the patriarch of the Maronite church, to submit a list of candidates from which the rival factions could select a president. Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system decrees that the president must be a Maronite. But neither camp is showing any sign of flexibility.

With Lebanon’s political woes inextricably linked to broader tensions in the Middle East, few expect an imminent solution, further complicating international efforts to secure a peace agreement at a summit in Annapolis next week.

The Lebanese Government is supported by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia, which seek to disarm Hezbollah and keep Lebanon within a pro-Western orbit – free from Syrian influence and an obstacle to Iran’s regional ambitions.

The Lebanese Opposition prefers to keep Lebanon aligned with Iran and Syria, distrusting Washington’s interest in Lebanon, which it believes seeks only to weaken Hezbollah and protect Israel.

“Everyone in Lebanon is waiting for the balance of power in the region to clarify itself,” Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Centre in Beirut, said.

The worsening crisis has resulted in a surge in black market arms sales as worried Lebanese protect themselves from an uncertain future. The weapon of choice is the AK47 assault rifle. A year ago the most popular version of this classic weapon, the 1977-vintage “circle 11” (named after the markings stamped into the rifle’s metal work), cost £250. Today it is worth about £450. “People are buying guns more than ever. They are expecting a war,” said Abu Jamil, an arms dealer.

The rise in arms sales has led to an increase in shooting practice in the Lebanese mountains, where the distant crackle of rifle fire is becoming common at weekends. The unrelenting political crisis and speculation that militias are being formed has left many Lebanese aghast at the thought that the country could be sliding into civil war once more.

“How can we even be thinking of war again? Have we learnt nothing?” Hadi Sfeir, 42, a shopkeeper, asked.

A civil rights group called Khalass – Arabic for Enough! - began a series of actions this week to highlight the disgust it feels toward the political class. “We are extremely frustrated. I don’t think the politicians care about what ordinary Lebanese care about like the economy and being able to live in peace with each other,” Carmen Jeha, an activist with Khalass, said.

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History of conflict

1975 Bus attack by Christian gunmen kills 27 and precipitates a civil war among Sunni, Shia and Christian communities

1976-78 Syrian troops enter to restore order; Israel controls south

1982 US, French and Italian peacekeepers arrive, but withdraw after a suicide attack kills 296 of their troops

1988 Beirut splits between Muslim control in west and Christian in east; the latter declares war against Syrian troops

1990 Syrian air strike against Christian government leader, who flees to the French Embassy effectively ending the civil war

2000 Israeli forces withdraw from Southern Lebanon

2005 Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s murder blamed on Syria. Street protests force Syrian withdrawal

2006 Israel attacks Beirut and south Lebanon after Hezbollah forces in Lebanon seize Israeli troops.

January 2007 Hezbollah calls general strike to force Government to resign

Source: Times archive

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My Bit:

Rival governments? Will Lebanon look like it did when President Amine Gemayel left in the late 1980s? Oddly enough it may, especially considering the man Amine left in charge (in the 80s-1990), General Aoun, is a key player in this mess. Only now, Aoun isn't fighting the Syrians, he's in league with them and their Hezbollah proxies.

With rival governments, internal conflict will come. Interestingly, if the pro-US parties of March 14th are put up against the wall, this could look like 1982 all over again. In the Middle East, the enemy (Israel) of my enemy (Hezbollah/Syria) is my friend. This is especially true when your super/large power backers (US and France) aren't offering you even an ounce as much support (militarily, economically, and diplomatically) as Iran and Syria offer to their proxies.




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Friday, November 16, 2007

Elections + Militias x Weapons = Problems

Lebanese elections have been rescheduled for November 21, in Lebanon's recent history, the stakes have never been higher. Many in the media have been postulating there may be another civil war. Lebanese friends both here in the States and who are working the political scene in Beirut have also felt the same. Rumors are flying, a few days ago some thought there were running street battles between Hezbollah controlled Dahiya and Christian Ayn Rummaneh, then that Hezbollah kidnapped a number of Christians in Ayn Rummaneh.
The true story turned out like this:
A number of Hezbollah workers were building Samir Geagea's new house, Geagea is the head of the primarily Christian and anti-Syrian/Hezbollah Lebanese Forces. These workers were taking pictures of the construction site, just what Syria's intelligence apparatus in Lebanon needed! The Hezbollah members were subsequently caught. The men's families believed the Lebanese Forces had kidnapped them, and in return wanted to stir up problems in Ayn Rummaneh.

Some in Lebanon want to write off a genuine rearmament and recreation of many militias in the country. According to Ya Libnan, rifles are now selling for $900, those are American prices if I've ever seen them! In addition they noted the recreation of one militia, "
The Mourabitoun, a leading Sunni militia in the early stages of the civil war, has reappeared as a political entity allied to the March 14 block. Mourabitoun gunmen helped reinforce Lebanese troops in May during the opening stage of a three-month battle against Al-Qaeda-inspired militants holed up in a Palestinian refugee camp in north Lebanon."

Hezbollah is now recruiting a reserve force of men in case a civil war breaks out. In addition Hezbollah has been arming, training and recruiting many from inside Michel Aoun's Free-Patriotic Movement (FPM) in the Bekka and the hills of Metn. Already, intra-sectarian violence peaked its head when a number of
FPM gunmen shot and killed a Kataeb party supporter.

Here is what the picture is looking like:
Pro-Syrian militias:
  • The largest and most powerful: Hezbollah, armed with rockets (as we saw in 2006 hitting northern and central Israel). A new reserve force to fight in a civil war, and already has a full time militia of 3000 men.
  • Small but effective Christian helper: FPM, its now being armed with brand new "Iranian rifles" according the an-Nahar.
  • Always a pro-Syrian stalwart: The Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), many of their politicians have personal militias.
  • Palestinian help: PFLP-GC, recently a family conflict took on a more political sound, the fight then turned into one of Fatah vs. the PFLP-GC. Even during the Nahr al Bared conflict the PFLP-GC threw its weight behind Fatah al Islam when fighting the Lebanese Army. Also, the group was implicated in the murder of Kataeb Party member, and Minister of Parliament Pierre Amine Gemayel.

Pro-Western/March 14th militias:
  • A small group of Lebanese Forces and Kataeb members (mostly ex-Sadem* members at the top) are re-arming and training in the hills. From my own research and knowledge the groups are very small, armed with (at least) 10 year old Kalashnikovs and pump action shotguns. The LF vehemently denies its forming a militia, but Lebanese private security firms can be easily compared to selling some chemicals to Saddam Hussein: They are dual use.
  • As for the Sunnis, Mourabitoun, or at least some new form of it has been reconstituted in Tripoli and possibly in Beirut. It looks as though the private Hariri security form may also be part of some new Mustaqbal militia.
  • One of the best militias of the Lebanese War, the Druze PSP, while officially (according to Walid Jumblatt) hasn't been rearming, is thought to be both rearming and training members in the Chouf Mountains. Additionally, I heard from a friend in Beirut that a Hezbollah member was killed by a PSP militiaman near Aley a day ago. So far there haven't been any news stories in regard to it, so it may either be another rumor or it could be just another killing that may lead to an explosion many expect.
University students in the FPM militia. Aoun denied these people were forming his own armed group, and then claimed they were part of his security.

Samir Geagea's security up in Bcharre. (my photo)

* During the Lebanese War, Sadem (meaning: Shock) were the most elite of the Lebanese Forces troops.

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Saturday, October 27, 2007

Currently Working On:

My posts have become much more erratic now that I am back in school and not in Lebanon. Nevertheless, I am writing a 9-10 page piece on the Lebanese Forces and how its grown and changed over the past 30 years. I am planning on getting this one published, when that is accomplished I will put it up here for all to enjoy (or ridicule)!

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Sunday, October 21, 2007

My Article Published About Hezbollah

The headquarters of the International Lebanese Committee for 1559 had their walls decorated with posters reading, “Syria, Shove Your Civil War” and “Life Liberty and Lebanon.” The group works for the disarmament of Lebanese militias in accordance with UN resolution 1559, Hezbollah is of primary concern. I talked with the leader of the Committee, Toni Nissi. Nissi believes Hezbollah is still an armed force because of the weakness of the Lebanese government, military, and its strong support from Syria and Iran, telling me, “the Bush administration tried last year to send 40,000 NATO troops in Lebanon to clean out Hezbollah and the militias. The problem is we never help anyone who tried to help us, all the time the leaders of the Lebanese were loyal to themselves, to Saudi Arabia, or some other country. We need leadership that thinks about the people, less about themselves.” Nissi is a strong supporter of enforcing chapter 7 of 1559, an article calling for foreign troops to dislodge the militias. He believes that only outside intervention could really topple Hezbollah’s military power. Because of his anti-Hezbollah stance Nissi has been characterized by Hasan Nasrallah himself as “the Beirut branch of the Mossad.” Lebanese media that wants to air his views are often violently threatened by Hezbollah. Even his fellow employees have admitted that he was a prime target for Syrian or Hezbollah retaliation, as a result, he and his family live in hiding.

While mostly catering to the Shi’ite population, Hezbollah has permeated every inch of Lebanese society. On television there is al Manar, Hezbollah’s propaganda/news outlet, also including music videos by famous pop-stars such as Julia Boutros glorifying Hezbollah and Nasrallah. Hezbollah has even launched a video game, which is currently on display in their 2006 war museum. During the summer, in Shi’ite southern Beirut, I heard the daily Hezbollah sponsored celebrations for their “divine victory” in 2006. Usually there was just sporadic gunfire in the air, but, in one instance, they reenacted a missile strike they carried out against an Israeli warship, attacked during last summer’s the war. The subsequent shock from the blast shook the windows of my university all the way in central Beirut.

Hezbollah controlled areas extend from southern Beirut, through southern Lebanon bordering, Israel and in the northern portion of the Bekka Valley bordering Syria. Even in the posh downtown of Beirut, Hezbollah protesters, and their pro-Syrian allies have encamped themselves to protest the anti-Syrian majority government. As I drove down the streets of southern Beirut, in the area called Dahiya, the streets were quiet, but Hezbollah was out in full force. Hezbollah is based in the area, posters of Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah covered buildings, rubble from Israeli air strikes was piled where apartment blocks once stood, locals and Hezbollah militiamen watched as my car drove through the area. With thousands of armed militiamen, long and short range rockets, direct control over wide swaths of Lebanon, the largest parliamentary bloc in Lebanese parliament, an alliance with Michel Aoun’s Tayyar (a mostly Christian party), and the support of most Shi’ite Muslims in Lebanon, Hezbollah is a force to reckoned with. After last summer’s war, Hezbollah’s power was more than evident.

Weapons still pour across the Lebanese-Syrian border, most of the arms go to and are smuggled by pro-Syrian Palestinian terror groups, such as the PFLP-GC, Fatah al Islam, in addition to getting delivered by and to Hezbollah. When I was waiting at the Lebanese border to cross into Syria it was a common site to see Syrian army personnel inside Lebanese territory. In my talks with Toni Nissi, he told me about a fact finding mission he led to the Bekaa Valley, where the Syrian Army still physically occupies much of eastern Lebanon. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Syria occupies at least 177 square miles of Lebanese soil.” The maps and charts show the Syrian objective. Damascus is systematically occupying the high ground of the Bekaa and Akkar districts. Nissi showed me photographs along with GPS points showing Syrian Army positions, Syrian T-62/T-72 tanks, and even a Syrian surface to air missile site, all within Lebanese territory. On the fact finding mission Nissi was fired upon by the Syrian army. Later he showed me a shell casing, he explained that he, “ran to the Syrian positions to pick up the bullets.” When he attempted to lead other fact finding missions the Lebanese government often wouldn’t allow him to pursue the issue. With a porous border and lack of strong government support, Hezbollah and other terror organizations find the smuggling of arms into Lebanon to be an easy task.

Baalbek, famous for its Roman ruins, lies in the heart of the Hezbollah controlled Bekka Valley. On the road to Baalbek, posters of the assassinated anti-Syrian politician Walid Eido, pictured together with his slain son, were coated with excrement, most likely thrown by pro-Syria Hezbollah supporters. Trash cans in the area have American flags or USA painted on them and the Ayatollah Khomeni’s smiling face graces many billboards. Everywhere one turned, there was another Nasrallah poster. Near the Roman ruins, there were gift stores. These weren’t the normal gift stores one might find near a major tourist site, there were no trinkets made of cedar wood, or T-shirts with pictures of the Temple to Baccus on them. Instead, these stores sold Hezbollah’s yellow flags, T-shirts featuring Nasrallah, DVDs showing Hezbollah operations, all the while playing Hezbollah songs on loud speakers.

At my Arabic program for foreigners in Beirut, the chief assistant to the director of the program was the former head of the Hezbollah student union at a university in Jbeil. I speculated, Hezbollah could know the location and most of the movements of a large body of Western students inside Lebanon. If hostilities broke out between the United States and Iran, Hezbollah, or Syria, the group, through its intelligence apparatus, could, in respect to programs catering to Westerners, easily carry out operations against Western students.

Even though the “Party of God” exerts enormous influence, there is a strong opposition to the group in Lebanon. First, there is the March 14th coalition, the leading anti-Syrian grouping that consists of Sunni (Mustaqbal), Christian (Kataeb, Lebanese Forces), and Druze parties (notably Walid Jumblatt’s PSP). One of my friends at a Lebanese university said hostility was so high between Hezbollah and the majority Christian students, that Hezbollah supporters were not allowed in the cafeteria of his school. Recently, violent riots (involving stones and fists) broke out between the two sides (primarily Mustaqbal and Hezbollah), following a Nasrallah speech.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah continues to ship in more arms, receive more money, exert more control over of the Shi’ite and portions of Lebanon. Calling Hezbollah’s control of certain areas as a “state within a state” is now cliche, especially considering how feudal and sectarian Lebanon is. The problem exists with Hezbollah’s possession of heavy weapons, its tendency to execute operations against sovereign states, often against the interests of the Lebanese state, and also its allegiance, and its support of the interests of outside states such as Iran and Syria. In Lebanon many Christians and Sunni Muslims fear that broader Shi’ite influence (under the auspices of

Hezbollah) will result in Lebanon being under a Khomenist-Islamist governance. In the words of one Lebanese Christian friend, “they want to turn us into Iran,” to a Sunni friend, “Hezbollah is crazy, they live in the 1100s.” With much of Hezbollah’s allegiance going to the ideals of Ayatollah Khomeni, it is easy to see why many would feel that way The Shi’ite students I shared the university with, while thoroughly anti-Western, enjoy the benefits of Western life, and may not support the effort at extreme Islamisation. Regardless of that, the hardliners of Hezbollah have foreign backing and are armed to the teeth. In poorer rural areas Hezbollah pays women to wear the chador and for men to grow a beard. With the increased radicalization and feeling of power generated by the 2006 war, Shi’ite relations with other sectarian groups is extremely strained, according to one professor at Lebanese American University, “the Lebanese [sectarian] groups don’t know how to share power, and now Hezbollah wants all the power.” Only time can tell what’s in store for Lebanon.

http://www.cedarsrevolution.net/jtphp/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=632&Itemid=2


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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Goodbye Mr. Ghanem

Today a huge car bomb ripped through Sin-el-Fil (meaning tooth of the elephant in Arabic). The bomb killed anti-Syrian and Kataeb party member Antoine Ghanem. The news has shaken me up quite a bit, I used to shop for T-shirts in that area of Sin-el-Fil. Syria is one by one, knocking off parliamentary opposition.

There are only 4 more members of parliament to be murdered before the anti-Syrian majority becomes a minority...


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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Metn Elections: The History & Results

August 5th was a big day for Lebanon, especially for Metn. Metn's original representative was Pierre Amine Gemayel. Gemayel belonged to the political dynasty of the same name. A strong anti-Syrian and prominent member of the March 14th alliance, he was appointed as Minister of Industry, Pierre Amine was in a position of power. All of this was cut short on November 21, 2006 as bullets were fired into Gemayel's driver's side window where he was sitting. Both he and his body guard were killed. The murder was condemned by the likes of the pope and the UN. America and Canada pointed fingers of responsibility at Syria.

The murder came at a time when Hizbollah, Tayyar (FPM), Amal, and a number of other pro-Syrian parties were to protest the March 14 Alliance led government. Both Hizbollah and Syria condemned the murder, but on the street, and in the government, most people blamed Syria. Circumstantial and later actual evidence; such as the fact that the car used in the assassination was stolen by a Syrian proxy group, the PFLP-GC. Gemayel was the one of many anti-Syrian politicians murdered since 2004. Gemayel's funeral drew about 800,000 mourners. The tension following Pierre Amine's assassination spilled over in December when Hizbollah and its allies held an anti-government rally. As a result the protests grew more violent, pro-government gunmen fired at the crowd. One supporter of Amal was killed, tension in Lebanon was so high that even General Michel Suleiman, commander of Lebanon's army, said the army couldn't contain the spread of violence.

According to some politicos I know within Tayyar (FPM), Kataeb, and the LF, there were many who believed that only violence would result from the election. I, too, was one of those people, I saw the fist fights, heightened aggression, and posturing done by both sides in the run up to the election. I felt as though sporadic shooting would break out between supporters of Michel Aoun and March 14th supporters. Thankfully none of this came to fruition.

Nevertheless we do have the results: Michel Aoun's candidate won. On the pro-March 14th side (that means anti-Syrians) many are seeing the loss of the seat as a technical victory. Now common knowledge would dictate that if one loses a seat then it is a loss, but when one looks at the numbers it is easy to see that a huge, united portion of the population supported Amine Gemayel. The breakdown looks like this:

51% of voters supported the Aounist candidate
49% of voters supported Amine Gemayel

Now, obviously the elections were close, but the main reason Aoun pulled ahead was due to his carefully negotiated alliances. For starters only about 15% of all voters for the Aounist candidate were actual direct Tayyar supporters. The main support for Tayyar actually came from Tachnag, a party that represents Armenian interests and from the blessing of Michel Murr.

What Is Tachnag & Who Is Murr?

Murr was originally a Lebanese Forces supporter in the 1970s to the mid 1980s, but became very pro-Syrian along with his pro-Syrian Lebanese Forces ally Elie Hobeika. Of course Murr hates the current Lebanese Forces leader, Samir Geagea (who supported Amine Gemayel), after Murr and Hobeika were ousted from power by Geagea. When Syria finally conquered Lebanon in 1990, Murr was appointed as the Minister of Interior. Because of his new found power Murr pulled the classic Lebanese move of using his power to create a strong patronage system in his home region (I like to use the term fiefdom). Where was Murr's fiefdom? The Metn area. Top that off with the fact that Murr's son is married into the Lahoud family, the same Lahoud that is currently the pro-Syrian president of Lebanon.

As for Tashnag, it was founded in 1890 to defend Armenian rights and to promulgate Armenian causes. As such, for many Armenians, their loyalty lies with Tashnag. Tashnag (and I'll say this again: typical Lebanese party) ran a very successful mixture of patronage system while also using mafia tactics to retain the loyalty of the Armenians. For more on them I would suggest reading an interesting post by the Ouwet Front Blog. For disclosure purposes this is a direct Lebanese Forces supporting blog (ie pro-Amine Gemayel). Nonetheless, the article written by contributor N10452 was quite interesting. Tashnag is not what I would consider a pro-Syrian party, but one that acts within its own self interests and what it feels (and is often incorrect) is within the Armenians self interest.

Polling & Numbers

From these two groups Aoun got around 70% of the vote. Aoun essentially needs to rely on shaky alliances with outwardly pro-Syrian groups (remember, another 15% of his vote came from the SSNP, quite possibly the most pro-Syrian party in Lebanon). This erodes Aoun's stance that he is essentially the leader of Lebanon's Christians (yes, he has tried this angle a number of times), and that he is completely in favor of Lebanese independence from Syria. He may have fought a war against Damascus, but now most of his support is coming from those who love Asad, a complete 180. Amine Gemayel's 49% of the vote came from a united grouping of Kataeb supporters and Lebanese Forces members. In addition Gemayel grabbed many Christian independent voters. Gemayel recieved about 42% of the Orthodox Christian vote, many Orthodox Christians usually vote for "Arabist" parties (such as the SSNP), as for Maronites Gemayel received about 56-57% of their votes. In general Christian support was very much behind Gemayel.

In the end though, Khoury, Aoun's candidate still has the seat, thus reducing the anti-Syrian majority by one. As for Aoun's attempt to become Lebanon's next president, his recent victory may not be the blessing he hoped for.

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