Elections + Militias x Weapons = Problems

Lebanese elections have been rescheduled for November 21, in Lebanon's recent history, the stakes have never been higher. Many in the media have been postulating there may be another civil war. Lebanese friends both here in the States and who are working the political scene in Beirut have also felt the same. Rumors are flying, a few days ago some thought there were running street battles between Hezbollah controlled Dahiya and Christian Ayn Rummaneh, then that Hezbollah kidnapped a number of Christians in Ayn Rummaneh.
The true story turned out like this:
A number of Hezbollah workers were building Samir Geagea's new house, Geagea is the head of the primarily Christian and anti-Syrian/Hezbollah Lebanese Forces. These workers were taking pictures of the construction site, just what Syria's intelligence apparatus in Lebanon needed! The Hezbollah members were subsequently caught. The men's families believed the Lebanese Forces had kidnapped them, and in return wanted to stir up problems in Ayn Rummaneh.

Some in Lebanon want to write off a genuine rearmament and recreation of many militias in the country. According to Ya Libnan, rifles are now selling for $900, those are American prices if I've ever seen them! In addition they noted the recreation of one militia, "The Mourabitoun, a leading Sunni militia in the early stages of the civil war, has reappeared as a political entity allied to the March 14 block. Mourabitoun gunmen helped reinforce Lebanese troops in May during the opening stage of a three-month battle against Al-Qaeda-inspired militants holed up in a Palestinian refugee camp in north Lebanon."

Hezbollah is now recruiting a reserve force of men in case a civil war breaks out. In addition Hezbollah has been arming, training and recruiting many from inside Michel Aoun's Free-Patriotic Movement (FPM) in the Bekka and the hills of Metn. Already, intra-sectarian violence peaked its head when a number of FPM gunmen shot and killed a Kataeb party supporter.

Here is what the picture is looking like:
Pro-Syrian militias:

• The largest and most powerful: Hezbollah, armed with rockets (as we saw in 2006 hitting northern and central Israel). A new reserve force to fight in a civil war, and already has a full time militia of 3000 men.

• Small but effective Christian helper: FPM, its now being armed with brand new "Iranian rifles" according the an-Nahar.

• Always a pro-Syrian stalwart: The Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), many of their politicians have personal militias.

• Palestinian help: PFLP-GC, recently a family conflict took on a more political sound, the fight then turned into one of Fatah vs. the PFLP-GC. Even during the Nahr al Bared conflict the PFLP-GC threw its weight behind Fatah al Islam when fighting the Lebanese Army. Also, the group was implicated in the murder of Kataeb Party member, and Minister of Parliament Pierre Amine Gemayel.

Pro-Western/March 14th militias:

• A small group of Lebanese Forces and Kataeb members (mostly ex-Sadem* members at the top) are re-arming and training in the hills. From my own research and knowledge the groups are very small, armed with (at least) 10 year old Kalashnikovs and pump action shotguns. The LF vehemently denies its forming a militia, but Lebanese private security firms can be easily compared to selling some chemicals to Saddam Hussein: They are dual use.
  

• As for the Sunnis, Mourabitoun, or at least some new form of it has been reconstituted in Tripoli and possibly in Beirut. It looks as though the private Hariri security form may also be part of some new Mustaqbal militia.

• One of the best militias of the Lebanese War, the Druze PSP, while officially (according to Walid Jumblatt) hasn't been rearming, is thought to be both rearming and training members in the Chouf Mountains. Additionally, I heard from a friend in Beirut that a Hezbollah member was killed by a PSP militiaman near Aley a day ago. So far there haven't been any news stories in regard to it, so it may either be another rumor or it could be just another killing that may lead to an explosion many expect.

University students in the FPM militia. Aoun denied these people were forming his own armed group, and then claimed they were part of his security.

Samir Geagea's security up in Bcharre. (my photo)

* During the Lebanese War, Sadem (meaning: Shock) were the most elite of the Lebanese Forces troops.

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