Goodbye Mr. Ghanem

Today a huge car bomb ripped through Sin-el-Fil (meaning tooth of the elephant in Arabic). The bomb killed anti-Syrian and Kataeb party member Antoine Ghanem. The news has shaken me up quite a bit, I used to shop for T-shirts in that area of Sin-el-Fil. Syria is one by one, knocking off parliamentary opposition.

There are only 4 more members of parliament to be murdered before the anti-Syrian majority becomes a minority...


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Breaking News, Ironically, Hours Before I Depart!

I was sitting outside with my friend Reem, a student here at LAU, when we both heard 2 consecutive explosions, she and I immediately jumped up and ran to the computer room and surfed the web for news and watched the TV for anything. So far we haven't heard a thing...I hope nothing has happened.

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PFLP-GC Stands For Syrian Mercenaries

The PFLP-GC (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command) was founded in 1968 as a splinter of the PFLP; the group believed in militancy, not political agreements. Its founder, Ahmed Jibril, was a Palestinian refugee who adopted Syrian nationality and had become, essentially a Syrian puppet. Jibril was also the leader of al-Saiqa (a pro-Syrian Palestinian group), in the 1970s and 1980s, the second largest group within the PLO. Until the War of the Camps, in which the PFLP-GC fought alongside Syria and helped kill hundreds of Palestinians, Jibril had a strong following amongst many Palestinians. In the 80s Jibril even sold his services to the likes of Mumar Kadafi during the attack on Pan Am 103.

In the 1970s and 1980s Jibril's staged a number of remarkable attacks against Israel. In 1978 one of Jibril's attacks, actually the first Palestinian suicide bombing, 18 people (including 9 children) were killed. This attack pushed the Israelis to invade Lebanon up to the Litani River. In 1987 the PFLP-GC launched an attack on the Israeli Army using hang gliders, 6 Israeli soldiers were killed. That attack was a great psychological boost to Palestinians who later rioted against Israeli authority during the Intifadah.

Currently the PFLP-GC maintains training camps and a strong presence in the Palestinian refugee camps and in the Bekka Valley. Even though Marxism has long passed its vogue, the General Command still continues its violence today, only its for Damascus.

Track Record of the PFLP-GCs Attacks For Syria:

• the General Command is a key source of arms and training for other Syrian backed terrorist outfits in Israel, namely Hamas and the PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad). In 2001 it was suspected that the PFLP-GC sent a ship loaded with explosives, ammunition, and arms to the Gaza strip. The ship was intercepted by the Israeli Navy before it arrived.


• In 2002 the PFLP-GC launched katusyia rockets into Israel after former secretary of state Colin Powell's Middle East visit, snubbed Syria.


• October 2005, the Lebanese Army surrounds PFLP-GC encampments in the Bekkaa following acusations that the group was smuggling weapons in from Syria.


• In November of 2006 Jibril's organization stole a car used in the assassination of Lebanese politician, Pierre Gemayel.


• Currently in Nahr al Bared refugee camp the PFLP-GC fights alongside Fatah al Islam against the Lebanese Army. To quote TIME, "Lebanese security officials also maintain that pro-Syrian Palestinians of the PFLP-GC have taken sides with Fatah al-Islam in Nahr al-Bared." Only recently did the PFLP-GCs fighters start surrendering to the Lebanese Army.

One this is for certain, as long as the PLFP-GC is around, it will continue to be a Syrian proxy group.

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Syrian Workers, Mexican Illegals

As I mentioned before, July 15th is right down the road. To expand upon my blurb before, Syria is planning on pulling out its workers in Lebanon on the 15th. This has been a huge cause of concern by analysts and by common Lebanese who feel the pullout of Syrian workers is just the prelude to a new terror-offensive led by Damascus. This May, Syria, acting in consort with the Islamist terror group, Fatah al Islam (an Islamist off-shoot to Fatah Intifadah, A Syrian created and financed Palestinian group), launched assassinations, bombings, and other attacks against anti-Syrian politicians (namely Walid Eido), locals that are heavily anti-Syrian (namely Achrafieh, Aley, and Korietem), and the Lebanese Army. Recently the head of the UN probe into Rafik Hariri's murder has stated that the recent combat operations involving Fatah al Islam and the Lebanese Army, are hindering their investigations; how convenient for Damascus.

With Syrian workers being pulled out, the Lebanese economy may suffer. The Syrians have firmly implanted themselves into the economy of Lebanon. Its interesting to note that Syrian workers are in many ways like illegal Mexican immigrants in the United States, but there are also many differences.

1. They are coming to seek higher wages, an American's average wage (this includes middle and upper class workers) is around $42,000; a Mexican's average wage (also includes their middle and upper classes) is around $3,300. Syria's average wage is around $1,200 a year, compared to Lebanon's 9,600 a year.


2. During Lebanon's occupation by Syria, Syrian workers were given free range to work in Lebanon, meanwhile, if a Lebanese wanted to work in Syria it was not allowed. On the other hand illegal immigrants to Mexico can face stiff jail sentences.


3. Syria considers Lebanon to be an integral part of Syria, just as many Mexicans consider the southwestern United States to be part of Mexico. Former Mexican President Zedillo said,“I have proudly affirmed that the Mexican nation extends beyond the territory enclosed by its borders.” Syrian president Bashar Asad said, "We, the Syrians would continue to give to Lebanon because you are the grandchildren of the Syrian Arabs."


4. Experts such as Habib C. Malik have called Syria's workers in Lebanon, "nothing short of a movement toward Syrian colonization of Lebanon." In the City Journal, Manhattan Institute contributor, Heather Mac Donald wrote,“Mexico’s five-year development plan in 1995 announced that the ‘Mexican nation extends its border into the United States. The government would strengthen solidarity programs with the Mexican communities abroad by emphasizing their Mexican roots, and supporting literacy programs in Spanish and teaching of the history, values and traditions of Mexico to those Mexicans living in the United States. We are betting the Mexican population in the U.S. will think Mexico first.’”


5. About 200,000 Syrian workers are in Lebanon out of a population of 3.9 million; there are anywhere from 7-12 million illegal Mexican migrants out of a population of 200 million.


6. Syria uses car bombs and political coercion to control Lebanon. Fortunately for Washington, Mexico hasn't started using terrorism.

I wanted to see what supporters of Syria's staunch ally, Hizbollah felt about the Syrians leaving. I asked one university student, and Hizbollah supporter from south Lebanon, "what will happen on the 15th?" Her answer, "problems." It seems that even erstwhile supporters of a Syrian proxy know that Syria will cook up problems for Lebanon.

"You see Phillip," she said, "I am with Syria because they help Hizbollah to free my village, I wouldn't be able to see my parents, but these Syrian workers take people's jobs, they make it so we make less money." Of course, in typical Lebanese fashion, self-interest comes first, but it also shows that in Lebanon many things are "grey."

The Lebanese Army is planning on crushing the Fatah al Islam stronghold of Nahr al Bared. Fatah al Islam, most recently, launched a rocket attack against Tripoli. Syria, after inspiring a set of numerous explosions and disturbances throughout Lebanon, is pulling out its nationals. Also the Hariri Tribunal is supposed to name a number of suspects in the investigation, this could include Syrian officials. Last, but not least, Iran has agreed inspections of their heavy water plants and atomic reactors. Things in Lebanon will only heat up.
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*Picture above is of the ABC Achrafieh bomb site, interesting to note that the people cleaning up the site were Syrian construction workers.
*All Pictures on here are taken by me, and my property, all rights reserved.

No Fireworks For The Fourth; Fireworks For the 15th?

During Syria's occupation of Lebanon they exploited both Lebanon's politicial system and its economy. Thousands of Syrian workers, even following Syria's pullout of Lebanon in 2005, make their living off of higher wages in Lebanon. However, it has been announced by Syria that it is pulling all of its workers out on July 15th. Many are speculating the country might have a new round of Syrian inspired terrorist attacks.

Only time can tell

Downtown Silence & The Hariri Effect

A skinny black and white cat ran by, the only souls within a 100 yard radius were a security guard, a Lebanese Army soldier, and a group of about three gussied up girls waiting to enter White, a club on top of the An Nahar building. Beirut is officially dead. Its only Thursday, but there should have been hundreds of people lining the walkways of downtown.

I had originally gone to downtown to see a friend and look around the Virgin Mega Store. After my friend left I was about to take yet another poorly maintained 1980s Mercedes taxi back to LAU. It was getting dark, and I was tired. Nonetheless, my more adventurous side got the best of me, so I decided to wonder around the downtown, talk to people where I could, and just see the city at night.

I headed towards the famous statue to the Martyrs in Martyr's Square, no one was there, earlier I spotted a French tourist snapping pictures of the bullet holes in the statue, but that was it. I was the only one to go into the Rafik Hariri memorial, I was told by another friend that the memorial got a shipment of new flowers every single day. I had originally ruled this out as impossible, to replace sets of flowers like the ones in the Hariri memorial, it would take hours of labor and thousands of dollars a day. That was until I saw 7 flower arrangers putting together wreaths and other decorations made completely of red and/or white flowers.

The memorial was made to commemorate the assassinated former Prime Minister of Lebanon, but I noticed something a bit more interesting in the photos that lined the tombs and walls inside. The memorial really highlighted what a zaim is. Zaim (or plural Zuama) is Lebanese for a leader, but it has a broader and more political meaning, referring to feudalistic sectarian leaders. Hariri could easily be characterized as one of those leaders. His sectarian group were Sunni Muslims. The mountains of cash he made from lucrative construction deals and his party, The Future Movement were all his brainchildren. In some respects he was the modern equivalent of a Japanese Shogun.

The pictures looked a bit like something out of Socialist Realism. One picture or painting would show Hariri praying or meeting with a dignitary, another would show him as the builder of the great mosque that is downtown. One must also remember the memorial isn't supposed to just be about Hariri, it also had an area where his guards are entombed. In the US many leaders (if they were killed in such a horrific manner) who characterize themselves as populists would be buried right next to their slain guards, not in Lebanon, egalitarianism is not a concern. Hariri, in true zuama fashion is buried out in front with a huge tomb, his guards are entombed behind him. All of the guards have their pictures next to their graves, but in each of those photos there is a superimposed Hariri in a semi-heroic stance behind them.

Construction in the downtown is booming, all thanks to Hariri. As part of the rebuilding effort Hariri launched his Solidere company, a plan to largely reshape downtown Beirut, bring in high end shops, and clear away many of the shell ravaged buildings. I always imagined Beirut as an interesting dichotomy of Orthodox/Byzantine style Christian buildings and a number of Ottoman style mosques. The real Beirut is a mix of cranes, in some cases poorly built high rises, an odd war scared building or two, all obscuring historical Beirut. Roman ruins are dug up and left out, during the March 14th protests my friend told me that some people urinated into a Roman ruin opposite the Martyrs' Statue because there weren't enough (correction: any) bathrooms.

I walked to the famous clock tower, I counted about 25 people (not including the countless private security and Lebanese Army soldiers) and 6 cats in the whole area. Cafes were empty, many stores were closed. The smell of shisha (Arab water pipe) was in the air, and ice cream was slowly melting in the Haagan Das near the clock tower. Soldiers would gawk at me, I was probably the only American within 5 miles. I continued to walk through downtown towards the Phonecia Hotel, location of Hariri's assassination. I walked more, passing an Ottoman era mosque, 3 people were inside praying.

I could see the shell ravaged Holiday Inn Hotel. The hotel used to be one of the highest and most strategicly placed buildings in Beirut. It achieved a legendary status amoungst many Christians after a Phalangist militia man threw himself off the top floor of the building, so he wouldn't be captured by Palestinian gunmen. After passing the hotel and buying myself a diet coke I flagged down a cab, and was back at LAU.

My movie of Beirut as seen from Martyrs' Square:



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* I will try to post, but will be out in Northern Lebanon in Batroun, Bcharre, and Duma until Sunday, the 8th of July

Is War On The Horizon of The Eastern Mediterranean?

I was browsing Michael Totten's website and came upon the article, Feels Like 1967, Redux. To paraphrase, Totten explained how Israel is assuming that at some time this summer an attack will come from Iran, Syria, Lebanon (through Hizbollah), or even al Qaida.

According to WorldTribune.com, "Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin told the Cabinet that the Jewish state faces five adversaries in what could result in an imminent confrontation. Yadlin cited Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and Al Qaida.'Each of these adversaries is capable of sparking a war in the summer,' Yadlin was quoted as saying."

I have serious doubts that al Qaeda could really take Israel on via Lebanon, Gaza, or the W. Bank. They usually operate in Arab/Muslim countries and strike targets within them. One of their few anti-Israel strikes was in Mombassa, Kenya, while this caused great alarm it didn't spark a war.

Hamas is a different ball of wax from al Qaeda. First, Hamas is busy solidifying its control of Gaza and that probably won't be complete, atleast, for a few more weeks. This doesn't mean that they won't try to launch rockets or hit and run attacks against Israel, but I think Olmert is quite wary of sending the army into Gaza so soon after the debacle he managed in Lebanon. One must also consider that Hamas does get some of its orders from Damascus, so if Asad decides he would much rather have a low-intensity war on Israel's southern border he may choose to do that.

As a casual observer who is currently residing in Lebanon, A.K.A the country that is home to Hizbollah and location of the war last July; it is my fundimental belief that if there is a new war against the Jewish state it will be along the same lines as the war last year.

Why Will A War Come?

• Lebanese presidential elections are on September 25th, Syria has been at work this spring and summer knocking off anti-Syrian MPs (namely Walid Eido). Emile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president of Lebanon is going to have to step down. The last thing Damascus wants is an anti-Syrian Maronite (namely Amine Gemayel or another Maronite from the anti-Syrian Rafik Hariri Martyr List). If a crisis can be made by Damascus, Beirut may have to delay elections, or if Damascus is feeling adventurous it may just contiune knocking off more politicians.

• The current Lebanese Army vs. Fatah al Islam war started around the same time the UN was going to start its tribunal for Rafik Hariri. Syria has a vested interest in keeping Lebanon destabilized at this time. If there is war, how can the UN carry out any investigation?

• Iran is facing internal strife and external pressure. Internally there were numerous riots due to gas rationing. According to the New York Times,
" Unrest spread in Tehran on Thursday, the second day of gasoline rationing in oil-rich Iran, with drivers lining up for miles, gas stations being set on fire and state-run banks and business centers coming under attack.

Dozens were arrested, and the Tehran police chief, Ismail Ahmadi Moghaddam, complained to reporters that the police had been caught unaware by the decision to ration fuel.

The anger posed a keen threat to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was elected two years ago on a platform of bringing income from oil to the nation’s households. Instead, even though Iran is one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, it has been forced to import about 40 percent of its gasoline at an annual cost of $5 billion to make up for shortfalls in its archaic refining industry."

In the Middle East distraction from domestic problems can be solved by a foreign adventure. Due to the success of Hizbollah's last war against Israel, they may feel emboldened to launch another one. If Hizbollah succeeds again then the Iranian leadership could find its way out of another problematic internal situation.

Add that the possibility of the international community pushing for tighter sanctions on the Iranians. Currently the international community is offering Iran a "nuclear time out" I.E. Iran should hold off temporarily from Uranium enrichment. The Iranians could very well ignore the initiative and continue on their current course of enrichment.

• Arms are flowing into Lebanon faster than water out of a faucet. Syria and Iran have been pumping Hizbollah with new arms. The UN has been complaining that Iran and Syria have not been respecting an arms ban into Lebanon.What does someone do when they get new toys? Do I really need to answer this one? All right: THEY USE THEM!

When I talked with the mother of a friend here she was telling me about a new article (I believe it was in An Nahar) that discussed how Hizbollah was ready for a new war against Israel. Many of the Christians here feel a war will break out at any time. Hizbollah has become excedingly powerful and to some extent it has left the Lebanese Christian population to feel immasculated. To quote my friend's mother, "Hizbollah wants to Islamicize Lebanon and have war all the time."

However there is an opposing view. Some on the Lebanese street are convinced no war will come and its simply sabre rattling by both sides. As I am writing this, I asked a Druze girl sitting at the computer next to me whether she thought a war would occur this summer, her answer, "they have been saying that for the past 5 to 6 months, I doubt there will be war." Israel has also been very cautious in regards to its northern border. Following a number of recent Katusyia rocket hits, Jerusalem decided to just ask UNIFIL to do a better job. Granted many people said this attack was from a rouge Palestian group trying to scuttle the cease fire in the south, but Israel did attack the PLO in 1982 after Shlomo Argov was attacked by the Abu Nidal Organization (Abu Nidal and the PLO were both Palestinian groups, but, they hated eachother, Abu Nidal was far more extremely violent and considered the PLO to be a sell out group).
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I'll add a bit more as the time comes. More interviews/travel-logs to come, look out for:

• A trip to Dahiya with a publisher friend (she's great, Ms. Wasta). Dahiya is the HQ of Hizbollah conjoined with a Palestinian refugee camp, and is located in S. Beirut. Currently Dahiya is a pile of rubble due to successive Israeli airstrikes. This should be interesting...

• A trip to Harrisa (حريصا) & Jbeil/Byblos (جبيل). I am going there on Saturday---So look forward to a late night blog post.

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This post is in serious need of additions and editing, so treat the current post as a proto-version of whatever is going to come.

Fatah al Islam Defeated?

Reports from Lebanon are claiming that Fatah al Islam has been defeated. Lebanese Defense Minister is quoted in the linked story as saying, "the military operation is over. The Lebanese army has crushed those terrorists." This may be true considering there haven't been any recent car bombings, only time can tell. I will try to post my findings on here.

Fatah al Islam: Arabic For Another Syrian Front

By. Phillip

There has been a recently repeated theory that claims that Fatah al Islam is somehow an organization with close ties to al Qaeda. Granted, Fatah al Islam does show Islamist tendencies, such as having a leader, Sheik Shaker Al-'Absi, a man sentenced in absentia to death by Jordanian authorities for the murder of an American diplomat. However, there is overwhelming evidence linking Fatah al Islam to Syria.

Journalist, Nicholas Blanford reported in Time that, “Fatah al-Islam, the group battling the army, has dominated much of the news in Lebanon since it first declared its existence late last year, splitting from Fatah al-Intifadeh, a pro-Syrian Palestinian faction that is headquartered in Damascus.” One must remember that Fatah Intifada was created by the Syrian regime as a Palestinian counter organization to Yasser Arafat and the PLO during the Lebanese Civil War. In addition Fatah Intifada is widely considered just another Syrian proxy (such as the PFLP-GC), and has its headquarters in Damascus.

Recently, in May of 2006 Fatah Initifada was used to stir the Lebanese pot when they attacked the Lebanese army. It isn’t just coincidence that both Fatah Intifadah and Fatah al Islam both have a knack for starting problems by attacking the Lebanese Army. When the Lebanese Army encircled Fatah Intifada last May it was in response to provocative action taken by the group. After Fatah al Islam’s bank robbery there were subsequent raids by the Lebanese Police and Army. Fatah al Islam retaliated by attacking Lebanese Army posts and killing 27 soldiers.

Other Connections:
• Not so ironically, Fatah al Islam launched its attacks on the Lebanese Army during a time when the UN was just beginning a tribunal on the assassination of Rafik Hariri. Any tribunal was expected to call Syrian officials, up to and including President Bashar Asad.
• Fatah al Islam has not attacked any pro-Syrian groups. Many Islamists, especially the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood regard the ruling Alawite minority as apostates. If Fatah al Islam was a true Islamist group, would it not seek to attack them (Syria and many of its proxies are secular) too?

The current spate of assassinations and bombings is obviously due to Asad’s hand. The bombings that occurred in Aley, Achrafieh, and Verdun were more than just operations designed to sew terror in the hearts of average Lebanese, just remember this:

• Aley: in the Druze heartland, not to mention a location where there is a strong PSP
(MP Walid Jumblatt’s party) influence. While Jumblatt has been known to engage in unabashed realpolitik, even before the Cedar Revolution of 2005 he’s been a staunch critic of Syria and a leading member in the March 14th Alliance.
• Verdun: known for being quite luxurious part of Beirut. While being a mixed neighborhood (Nabi Berri owned a residence near to where the Verdun blast occurred) is generally considered to be within another anti-Syrian party’s sphere of influence, the Sunni, Future Movement. This was a message aimed at shaking Saad Hariri, leader of the Future movement and son of slain former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri.
• Achrafieh: A Christian part of Beirut, the bombing of a shopping mall in this area had much to do with threatening the Christian base of anti-Syrian coalition. This more specifically targeted parties such as Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party.
• Most of the explosions were small, often in areas frequented by the public (such as shopping malls) but often in off hours. One of the few bombings to have a large death toll was the Walid Eido assassination, which killed 10 others in the process.

The Syrian Mukhabarat is sending a very blunt message to the anti-Syrian parties: Keep defying Damascus and you will get more bombs. This was the same message sent by Syria following the anti-Syrian protests of March 14th. Syria’s bombing campaign included targets (as the bombing campaign has recently) such as anti-Syrian journalists, politicians, and areas where anti-Syrian confessional groups (ie. Druze, Christians, and pro-Hariri Sunnis) reside:

• Assassinations of fervently anti-Syrian politician Gebran Tueni and journalist Samir Kassir. This also includes the assassination attempt on LBC journalist (and candidate for a Maronite seat in the Baabda-Aley district) May Chidac.
• The bombings used small amounts of explosive (ranging from 1- around 50lbs).
• The same style of targets as the current bombing spate were hit, such as a shopping mall in the Christian neighborhood of Zalka.

Walid Eido and Destroying the Majority

After the June 14th murder Walid Eido, a Lebanese friend mentioned to me, “just four more to go.” I asked him what he meant by that and the answer I received was quite startling (I am paraphrasing here), “The Syrians just need to kill 4 more parliamentarians with March 14th, then they [March 14th and other anti-Syrians] won’t have the majority.” Whittling down on the anti-Syrian political majority is most definitely a goal of Damascus. The number of anti-Syrians has now gone down to 68 from 72, if the number goes down to 64 then pro-Syrian elements in Lebanon will undercut the Siniora’s government. Lebanon’s current president, pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud has his term is set to expire on September 25, 2007. Because Lebanon’s president is elected via the parliament, a pro-Syrian majority is a goal desired by Damascus in order to control Lebanon’s presidency.

Useful links on mentioned topics:
BBC Fatah al Islam
ABC: What is Fatah al Islam?

© Copyright http://arzeljabal.blogspot.com/; June 16, 2007