Metn Elections: The History & Results

August 5th was a big day for Lebanon, especially for Metn. Metn's original representative was Pierre Amine Gemayel. Gemayel belonged to the political dynasty of the same name. A strong anti-Syrian and prominent member of the March 14th alliance, he was appointed as Minister of Industry, Pierre Amine was in a position of power. All of this was cut short on November 21, 2006 as bullets were fired into Gemayel's driver's side window where he was sitting. Both he and his body guard were killed. The murder was condemned by the likes of the pope and the UN. America and Canada pointed fingers of responsibility at Syria.

The murder came at a time when Hizbollah, Tayyar (FPM), Amal, and a number of other pro-Syrian parties were to protest the March 14 Alliance led government. Both Hizbollah and Syria condemned the murder, but on the street, and in the government, most people blamed Syria. Circumstantial and later actual evidence; such as the fact that the car used in the assassination was stolen by a Syrian proxy group, the PFLP-GC. Gemayel was the one of many anti-Syrian politicians murdered since 2004. Gemayel's funeral drew about 800,000 mourners. The tension following Pierre Amine's assassination spilled over in December when Hizbollah and its allies held an anti-government rally. As a result the protests grew more violent, pro-government gunmen fired at the crowd. One supporter of Amal was killed, tension in Lebanon was so high that even General Michel Suleiman, commander of Lebanon's army, said the army couldn't contain the spread of violence.

According to some politicos I know within Tayyar (FPM), Kataeb, and the LF, there were many who believed that only violence would result from the election. I, too, was one of those people, I saw the fist fights, heightened aggression, and posturing done by both sides in the run up to the election. I felt as though sporadic shooting would break out between supporters of Michel Aoun and March 14th supporters. Thankfully none of this came to fruition.

Nevertheless we do have the results: Michel Aoun's candidate won. On the pro-March 14th side (that means anti-Syrians) many are seeing the loss of the seat as a technical victory. Now common knowledge would dictate that if one loses a seat then it is a loss, but when one looks at the numbers it is easy to see that a huge, united portion of the population supported Amine Gemayel. The breakdown looks like this:

51% of voters supported the Aounist candidate
49% of voters supported Amine Gemayel

Now, obviously the elections were close, but the main reason Aoun pulled ahead was due to his carefully negotiated alliances. For starters only about 15% of all voters for the Aounist candidate were actual direct Tayyar supporters. The main support for Tayyar actually came from Tachnag, a party that represents Armenian interests and from the blessing of Michel Murr.

What Is Tachnag & Who Is Murr?

Murr was originally a Lebanese Forces supporter in the 1970s to the mid 1980s, but became very pro-Syrian along with his pro-Syrian Lebanese Forces ally Elie Hobeika. Of course Murr hates the current Lebanese Forces leader, Samir Geagea (who supported Amine Gemayel), after Murr and Hobeika were ousted from power by Geagea. When Syria finally conquered Lebanon in 1990, Murr was appointed as the Minister of Interior. Because of his new found power Murr pulled the classic Lebanese move of using his power to create a strong patronage system in his home region (I like to use the term fiefdom). Where was Murr's fiefdom? The Metn area. Top that off with the fact that Murr's son is married into the Lahoud family, the same Lahoud that is currently the pro-Syrian president of Lebanon.

As for Tashnag, it was founded in 1890 to defend Armenian rights and to promulgate Armenian causes. As such, for many Armenians, their loyalty lies with Tashnag. Tashnag (and I'll say this again: typical Lebanese party) ran a very successful mixture of patronage system while also using mafia tactics to retain the loyalty of the Armenians. For more on them I would suggest reading an interesting post by the Ouwet Front Blog. For disclosure purposes this is a direct Lebanese Forces supporting blog (ie pro-Amine Gemayel). Nonetheless, the article written by contributor N10452 was quite interesting. Tashnag is not what I would consider a pro-Syrian party, but one that acts within its own self interests and what it feels (and is often incorrect) is within the Armenians self interest.

Polling & Numbers

From these two groups Aoun got around 70% of the vote. Aoun essentially needs to rely on shaky alliances with outwardly pro-Syrian groups (remember, another 15% of his vote came from the SSNP, quite possibly the most pro-Syrian party in Lebanon). This erodes Aoun's stance that he is essentially the leader of Lebanon's Christians (yes, he has tried this angle a number of times), and that he is completely in favor of Lebanese independence from Syria. He may have fought a war against Damascus, but now most of his support is coming from those who love Asad, a complete 180. Amine Gemayel's 49% of the vote came from a united grouping of Kataeb supporters and Lebanese Forces members. In addition Gemayel grabbed many Christian independent voters. Gemayel recieved about 42% of the Orthodox Christian vote, many Orthodox Christians usually vote for "Arabist" parties (such as the SSNP), as for Maronites Gemayel received about 56-57% of their votes. In general Christian support was very much behind Gemayel.

In the end though, Khoury, Aoun's candidate still has the seat, thus reducing the anti-Syrian majority by one. As for Aoun's attempt to become Lebanon's next president, his recent victory may not be the blessing he hoped for.

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Amine Lost; Aoun Won; Lebanon On The Brink

Cheik Amine Gemayel lost the election in Metn. After hearing from my friends directly involved in the elections I think it might get a bit hairy today. I saw fist fights between Tayyar (the winners, and Michel Aoun's party) and Kataeb (Cheik Amine's party), and from what I've noticed, Lebanon is looking more and more polarized. I hope nothing happens and saner heads prevail.

As for blogging, I am out to Colorado (amazing how I just touched down from Lebanon and I'm out again), I think I am going to take a little break, if any big news comes down the pike I will cover it, when I am out there I am writing one of my more important pieces, and interview with Toni Nissi.


While I am gone I will let my video of a Bedouin playing some music in Palmyra entertain you:



Thanks

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PFLP-GC Stands For Syrian Mercenaries

The PFLP-GC (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command) was founded in 1968 as a splinter of the PFLP; the group believed in militancy, not political agreements. Its founder, Ahmed Jibril, was a Palestinian refugee who adopted Syrian nationality and had become, essentially a Syrian puppet. Jibril was also the leader of al-Saiqa (a pro-Syrian Palestinian group), in the 1970s and 1980s, the second largest group within the PLO. Until the War of the Camps, in which the PFLP-GC fought alongside Syria and helped kill hundreds of Palestinians, Jibril had a strong following amongst many Palestinians. In the 80s Jibril even sold his services to the likes of Mumar Kadafi during the attack on Pan Am 103.

In the 1970s and 1980s Jibril's staged a number of remarkable attacks against Israel. In 1978 one of Jibril's attacks, actually the first Palestinian suicide bombing, 18 people (including 9 children) were killed. This attack pushed the Israelis to invade Lebanon up to the Litani River. In 1987 the PFLP-GC launched an attack on the Israeli Army using hang gliders, 6 Israeli soldiers were killed. That attack was a great psychological boost to Palestinians who later rioted against Israeli authority during the Intifadah.

Currently the PFLP-GC maintains training camps and a strong presence in the Palestinian refugee camps and in the Bekka Valley. Even though Marxism has long passed its vogue, the General Command still continues its violence today, only its for Damascus.

Track Record of the PFLP-GCs Attacks For Syria:

• the General Command is a key source of arms and training for other Syrian backed terrorist outfits in Israel, namely Hamas and the PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad). In 2001 it was suspected that the PFLP-GC sent a ship loaded with explosives, ammunition, and arms to the Gaza strip. The ship was intercepted by the Israeli Navy before it arrived.


• In 2002 the PFLP-GC launched katusyia rockets into Israel after former secretary of state Colin Powell's Middle East visit, snubbed Syria.


• October 2005, the Lebanese Army surrounds PFLP-GC encampments in the Bekkaa following acusations that the group was smuggling weapons in from Syria.


• In November of 2006 Jibril's organization stole a car used in the assassination of Lebanese politician, Pierre Gemayel.


• Currently in Nahr al Bared refugee camp the PFLP-GC fights alongside Fatah al Islam against the Lebanese Army. To quote TIME, "Lebanese security officials also maintain that pro-Syrian Palestinians of the PFLP-GC have taken sides with Fatah al-Islam in Nahr al-Bared." Only recently did the PFLP-GCs fighters start surrendering to the Lebanese Army.

One this is for certain, as long as the PLFP-GC is around, it will continue to be a Syrian proxy group.

© All Rights Reserved; www.ArzelJabal.blogspot.com

Martyrs' Square

Yesterday I headed out with J, her sister N, A and E. They have been incredibly hospitible towards me and I feel as though I am one of the family, its the sort of acceptance you would rarely find in the United States; I have only expereienced it within my own family and with my girlfriend.

I really feel at ease, unstressed and at peace here. Despite the random violence (nothing has hit Beirut so far), and, in some places uncleanliness there is a general relaxed feeling about the people. I honestly think most of them are more curious about me than I am of them, I've never been stared at quite so much, but its not a stare of disgust, it is one of interest.

J, N, A, and E (we can't forget E!), were kind enough to take me to the downtown area. Many Lebanese, especially those in the Christian community rarely go to the downtown area because of the Hizbollah tent city that sprouted up in the square. Also, because of the terrorism purpotrated by Fatah al Islam many of Lebanon's most famous sites look like ghost towns. I wasn't about to let this deter me, but then again, I must put my thanks out to my friends who were kind enough to drive me there, guide me and put up with their feelings of rage against Hizbollah, which they regard as a state within their state. Not to mention deal with a routy American who always sticks his nose in things.

The Garden(s) of the Shahid (Martyr)

Martyr's Square first attained its name from six Lebanese nationalists who were hanged by Ottoman authorities in World War One, following a revolt against the Turks. The Palace des Martyrs' (as its known in French) was also the place in 2005 that the March 14th rally was held. It was described to me by friends who attended the event as a remarkably huge sea of humanity; Sunnis, Druze, Christians, and even some Shia all comming together to protest Syria's murder of Rafik Hariri and to get Syria to pull out of Lebanon. This is one of the few squares I've been to that not only features "martyrs of the past" but of "martyrs of the present." If you look east you can see the Kataeb Party headquarters adorned with a poster of slain leader Pierre Amine Gemayel, to the center of the square there is the An Nahar Newspaper tower with a huge poster of murdered MP and writer Gebran Tueni, towards the new mosque built by Rafik Hariri is his tomb and that of his body guards, all killed by Syria. Even the statue commemorating the 6 executed nationalists is scared by war as there are bullet holes all over the bronze. In Lebanon death is always around the corner, or in this case in the square, but life is always so vibrant. I toured around Place de l'Étoile which features the famous Rolex clock tower, normally the square would be PACKED with people, but today, because of the high heat and the fear of terrorism, tourists and locals have just stayed home.

We continued on in central Beirut and I went into this stunning Greek Orthodox Cathedral called The Cathedral of Saint George. The churches and cathedrals here are simple on the outside, using heavy stone, mixing Byzantine, Western, and Arab architecture. On the inside they are incredibly ornate and stunning. In Saint George's there were murals of angels, gold leaf covering the columns, and 3 burning candles in the back. If you aren't religious like me, the building could definately cause you to reconsider.

Following the tour around City Centre, everyone took me to Club 43 in Achrafieh. The club is within (and excuse the pun here)a gunshot's distance from Martyrs' Square, has a French flag hanging from its 18/19th century window, and is up a darkened flight of steps. Our server was an Australian hippie who served us shots (ouzo) and then our other food and drinks. I must note that they have the best iced tea I've had in Lebanon, but the food was hit or miss.

"Wierd New Jersey" Doesn't Have ANYTHING on "Wierd Lebanon"

On another side note, Lebanon has always been a place of contradictions, a place where the militant Islamist group Hizbollah can launch katusyia rockets at Israel but at the same time where one can get drunk in a bar off absinthe, 500FT from a Hizbollah protest.

I've noticed that time isn't that important in Lebanon. In my dorms there are no clocks, just one clock on the bottom floor (I am up 4 flights of steps to my room). Appointments are made but I've noticed that they are rarely kept, for instance I was supposed to have lunch with a Hizbollah member, we made plans the night before and she was atleast 20 minutes late and wasn't hungry.

Modern Lebanese culture (and I am trying not to generalize here, because my friends are not like this) is incredibly materialistic. People may not be able to buy food in some cases but have a brand new Mercedes or BMW, Gucci clothing, or a Rolex watch.

In the United States much business and politics is preformed through connections people have but it is generally frowned upon to openly gloat about how one uses and makes connections. Here it is quite different and the word that is used is Wasta. I was talking to two people who go to LAU and one was trying to get her best friend to go out with a teachers assistant who proctors her class---why you may ask? Not so she could be a good friend, no, she wanted a good grade in class! In Lebanon even socially, the ends justify the means.