Elections + Militias x Weapons = Problems

Lebanese elections have been rescheduled for November 21, in Lebanon's recent history, the stakes have never been higher. Many in the media have been postulating there may be another civil war. Lebanese friends both here in the States and who are working the political scene in Beirut have also felt the same. Rumors are flying, a few days ago some thought there were running street battles between Hezbollah controlled Dahiya and Christian Ayn Rummaneh, then that Hezbollah kidnapped a number of Christians in Ayn Rummaneh.
The true story turned out like this:
A number of Hezbollah workers were building Samir Geagea's new house, Geagea is the head of the primarily Christian and anti-Syrian/Hezbollah Lebanese Forces. These workers were taking pictures of the construction site, just what Syria's intelligence apparatus in Lebanon needed! The Hezbollah members were subsequently caught. The men's families believed the Lebanese Forces had kidnapped them, and in return wanted to stir up problems in Ayn Rummaneh.

Some in Lebanon want to write off a genuine rearmament and recreation of many militias in the country. According to Ya Libnan, rifles are now selling for $900, those are American prices if I've ever seen them! In addition they noted the recreation of one militia, "The Mourabitoun, a leading Sunni militia in the early stages of the civil war, has reappeared as a political entity allied to the March 14 block. Mourabitoun gunmen helped reinforce Lebanese troops in May during the opening stage of a three-month battle against Al-Qaeda-inspired militants holed up in a Palestinian refugee camp in north Lebanon."

Hezbollah is now recruiting a reserve force of men in case a civil war breaks out. In addition Hezbollah has been arming, training and recruiting many from inside Michel Aoun's Free-Patriotic Movement (FPM) in the Bekka and the hills of Metn. Already, intra-sectarian violence peaked its head when a number of FPM gunmen shot and killed a Kataeb party supporter.

Here is what the picture is looking like:
Pro-Syrian militias:

• The largest and most powerful: Hezbollah, armed with rockets (as we saw in 2006 hitting northern and central Israel). A new reserve force to fight in a civil war, and already has a full time militia of 3000 men.

• Small but effective Christian helper: FPM, its now being armed with brand new "Iranian rifles" according the an-Nahar.

• Always a pro-Syrian stalwart: The Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), many of their politicians have personal militias.

• Palestinian help: PFLP-GC, recently a family conflict took on a more political sound, the fight then turned into one of Fatah vs. the PFLP-GC. Even during the Nahr al Bared conflict the PFLP-GC threw its weight behind Fatah al Islam when fighting the Lebanese Army. Also, the group was implicated in the murder of Kataeb Party member, and Minister of Parliament Pierre Amine Gemayel.

Pro-Western/March 14th militias:

• A small group of Lebanese Forces and Kataeb members (mostly ex-Sadem* members at the top) are re-arming and training in the hills. From my own research and knowledge the groups are very small, armed with (at least) 10 year old Kalashnikovs and pump action shotguns. The LF vehemently denies its forming a militia, but Lebanese private security firms can be easily compared to selling some chemicals to Saddam Hussein: They are dual use.
  

• As for the Sunnis, Mourabitoun, or at least some new form of it has been reconstituted in Tripoli and possibly in Beirut. It looks as though the private Hariri security form may also be part of some new Mustaqbal militia.

• One of the best militias of the Lebanese War, the Druze PSP, while officially (according to Walid Jumblatt) hasn't been rearming, is thought to be both rearming and training members in the Chouf Mountains. Additionally, I heard from a friend in Beirut that a Hezbollah member was killed by a PSP militiaman near Aley a day ago. So far there haven't been any news stories in regard to it, so it may either be another rumor or it could be just another killing that may lead to an explosion many expect.

University students in the FPM militia. Aoun denied these people were forming his own armed group, and then claimed they were part of his security.

Samir Geagea's security up in Bcharre. (my photo)

* During the Lebanese War, Sadem (meaning: Shock) were the most elite of the Lebanese Forces troops.

© All Rights Reserved; www.ArzelJabal.blogspot.com

Metn Elections: The History & Results

August 5th was a big day for Lebanon, especially for Metn. Metn's original representative was Pierre Amine Gemayel. Gemayel belonged to the political dynasty of the same name. A strong anti-Syrian and prominent member of the March 14th alliance, he was appointed as Minister of Industry, Pierre Amine was in a position of power. All of this was cut short on November 21, 2006 as bullets were fired into Gemayel's driver's side window where he was sitting. Both he and his body guard were killed. The murder was condemned by the likes of the pope and the UN. America and Canada pointed fingers of responsibility at Syria.

The murder came at a time when Hizbollah, Tayyar (FPM), Amal, and a number of other pro-Syrian parties were to protest the March 14 Alliance led government. Both Hizbollah and Syria condemned the murder, but on the street, and in the government, most people blamed Syria. Circumstantial and later actual evidence; such as the fact that the car used in the assassination was stolen by a Syrian proxy group, the PFLP-GC. Gemayel was the one of many anti-Syrian politicians murdered since 2004. Gemayel's funeral drew about 800,000 mourners. The tension following Pierre Amine's assassination spilled over in December when Hizbollah and its allies held an anti-government rally. As a result the protests grew more violent, pro-government gunmen fired at the crowd. One supporter of Amal was killed, tension in Lebanon was so high that even General Michel Suleiman, commander of Lebanon's army, said the army couldn't contain the spread of violence.

According to some politicos I know within Tayyar (FPM), Kataeb, and the LF, there were many who believed that only violence would result from the election. I, too, was one of those people, I saw the fist fights, heightened aggression, and posturing done by both sides in the run up to the election. I felt as though sporadic shooting would break out between supporters of Michel Aoun and March 14th supporters. Thankfully none of this came to fruition.

Nevertheless we do have the results: Michel Aoun's candidate won. On the pro-March 14th side (that means anti-Syrians) many are seeing the loss of the seat as a technical victory. Now common knowledge would dictate that if one loses a seat then it is a loss, but when one looks at the numbers it is easy to see that a huge, united portion of the population supported Amine Gemayel. The breakdown looks like this:

51% of voters supported the Aounist candidate
49% of voters supported Amine Gemayel

Now, obviously the elections were close, but the main reason Aoun pulled ahead was due to his carefully negotiated alliances. For starters only about 15% of all voters for the Aounist candidate were actual direct Tayyar supporters. The main support for Tayyar actually came from Tachnag, a party that represents Armenian interests and from the blessing of Michel Murr.

What Is Tachnag & Who Is Murr?

Murr was originally a Lebanese Forces supporter in the 1970s to the mid 1980s, but became very pro-Syrian along with his pro-Syrian Lebanese Forces ally Elie Hobeika. Of course Murr hates the current Lebanese Forces leader, Samir Geagea (who supported Amine Gemayel), after Murr and Hobeika were ousted from power by Geagea. When Syria finally conquered Lebanon in 1990, Murr was appointed as the Minister of Interior. Because of his new found power Murr pulled the classic Lebanese move of using his power to create a strong patronage system in his home region (I like to use the term fiefdom). Where was Murr's fiefdom? The Metn area. Top that off with the fact that Murr's son is married into the Lahoud family, the same Lahoud that is currently the pro-Syrian president of Lebanon.

As for Tashnag, it was founded in 1890 to defend Armenian rights and to promulgate Armenian causes. As such, for many Armenians, their loyalty lies with Tashnag. Tashnag (and I'll say this again: typical Lebanese party) ran a very successful mixture of patronage system while also using mafia tactics to retain the loyalty of the Armenians. For more on them I would suggest reading an interesting post by the Ouwet Front Blog. For disclosure purposes this is a direct Lebanese Forces supporting blog (ie pro-Amine Gemayel). Nonetheless, the article written by contributor N10452 was quite interesting. Tashnag is not what I would consider a pro-Syrian party, but one that acts within its own self interests and what it feels (and is often incorrect) is within the Armenians self interest.

Polling & Numbers

From these two groups Aoun got around 70% of the vote. Aoun essentially needs to rely on shaky alliances with outwardly pro-Syrian groups (remember, another 15% of his vote came from the SSNP, quite possibly the most pro-Syrian party in Lebanon). This erodes Aoun's stance that he is essentially the leader of Lebanon's Christians (yes, he has tried this angle a number of times), and that he is completely in favor of Lebanese independence from Syria. He may have fought a war against Damascus, but now most of his support is coming from those who love Asad, a complete 180. Amine Gemayel's 49% of the vote came from a united grouping of Kataeb supporters and Lebanese Forces members. In addition Gemayel grabbed many Christian independent voters. Gemayel recieved about 42% of the Orthodox Christian vote, many Orthodox Christians usually vote for "Arabist" parties (such as the SSNP), as for Maronites Gemayel received about 56-57% of their votes. In general Christian support was very much behind Gemayel.

In the end though, Khoury, Aoun's candidate still has the seat, thus reducing the anti-Syrian majority by one. As for Aoun's attempt to become Lebanon's next president, his recent victory may not be the blessing he hoped for.

© All Rights Reserved; www.ArzelJabal.blogspot.com

PFLP-GC Stands For Syrian Mercenaries

The PFLP-GC (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command) was founded in 1968 as a splinter of the PFLP; the group believed in militancy, not political agreements. Its founder, Ahmed Jibril, was a Palestinian refugee who adopted Syrian nationality and had become, essentially a Syrian puppet. Jibril was also the leader of al-Saiqa (a pro-Syrian Palestinian group), in the 1970s and 1980s, the second largest group within the PLO. Until the War of the Camps, in which the PFLP-GC fought alongside Syria and helped kill hundreds of Palestinians, Jibril had a strong following amongst many Palestinians. In the 80s Jibril even sold his services to the likes of Mumar Kadafi during the attack on Pan Am 103.

In the 1970s and 1980s Jibril's staged a number of remarkable attacks against Israel. In 1978 one of Jibril's attacks, actually the first Palestinian suicide bombing, 18 people (including 9 children) were killed. This attack pushed the Israelis to invade Lebanon up to the Litani River. In 1987 the PFLP-GC launched an attack on the Israeli Army using hang gliders, 6 Israeli soldiers were killed. That attack was a great psychological boost to Palestinians who later rioted against Israeli authority during the Intifadah.

Currently the PFLP-GC maintains training camps and a strong presence in the Palestinian refugee camps and in the Bekka Valley. Even though Marxism has long passed its vogue, the General Command still continues its violence today, only its for Damascus.

Track Record of the PFLP-GCs Attacks For Syria:

• the General Command is a key source of arms and training for other Syrian backed terrorist outfits in Israel, namely Hamas and the PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad). In 2001 it was suspected that the PFLP-GC sent a ship loaded with explosives, ammunition, and arms to the Gaza strip. The ship was intercepted by the Israeli Navy before it arrived.


• In 2002 the PFLP-GC launched katusyia rockets into Israel after former secretary of state Colin Powell's Middle East visit, snubbed Syria.


• October 2005, the Lebanese Army surrounds PFLP-GC encampments in the Bekkaa following acusations that the group was smuggling weapons in from Syria.


• In November of 2006 Jibril's organization stole a car used in the assassination of Lebanese politician, Pierre Gemayel.


• Currently in Nahr al Bared refugee camp the PFLP-GC fights alongside Fatah al Islam against the Lebanese Army. To quote TIME, "Lebanese security officials also maintain that pro-Syrian Palestinians of the PFLP-GC have taken sides with Fatah al-Islam in Nahr al-Bared." Only recently did the PFLP-GCs fighters start surrendering to the Lebanese Army.

One this is for certain, as long as the PLFP-GC is around, it will continue to be a Syrian proxy group.

© All Rights Reserved; www.ArzelJabal.blogspot.com