Addendum To My Last Post

Saw this in the Times:

From The Times

November 23, 2007

Rival factions return to arms as Lebanon stares into the abyss

Nicholas Blanford in Beirut

The centre of Beirut will be a sealed-off military zone today as MPs gather to elect a new president in a last-ditch attempt to prevent Lebanon from plunging into chaos and violence.

Émile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian head of state, leaves office at midnight today, but despite intense international mediation, no agreement appears to have been reached on a new president acceptable to the bitterly divided political camps.

The US-backed March 14 block, which holds a slim majority, has said that it will attend today’s session of parliament and threatened to elect a president from their own ranks if a consensus candidate is not found.

But the pro-Syrian Opposition, led by the powerful Shia Hezbollah party, says that it will boycott the election and has hinted it will respond by forming a rival government, a move that many Lebanese fear will lead to violence between heavily armed rival factions and tear the country apart.

That grim outlook appeared to draw closer last night with political sources saying that the continued lack of agreement could lead to the election being postponed, plunging Lebanon into constitutional limbo.

“Last day before zero hour: either a miracle or vacuum,” the An-Nahar daily headline said yesterday.

The foreign ministers of France, Spain and Italy are in Beirut shuttling between political leaders to push for agreement over the choice of president. In a further sign of international concern, President Sarkozy of France spoke by phone on Wednesday to Saad Hariri, head of the antiSyrian block, and Michel Aoun, the opposition candidate for president.

All three European countries contribute to a 13,300-strong United Nations peacekeeping force in south Lebanon and are aware that their soldiers would be at even greater risk if Lebanon fell apart.

Also at risk are MPs belonging to the March 14 block, more than 40 of whom have spent the past two months holed up in an annex of the five-star Phoenicia hotel in central Beirut. Four of their colleagues have been murdered since the June 2005 general election. Visitors pass through metal detectors and are escorted by bodyguards to meeting rooms.

The curtains are kept closed to avoid sniper fire. On the rare occasions MPs travel, they go in small unmarked cars and remove the chips from their mobile phones so that they cannot be tracked.

“The guys are all depressed staying here. It’s like a prison,” said Mosbah Ahdab, an MP from Tripoli, who moved into the hotel on Monday.

In an attempt to break the impasse last week, France persuaded Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir, the patriarch of the Maronite church, to submit a list of candidates from which the rival factions could select a president. Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system decrees that the president must be a Maronite. But neither camp is showing any sign of flexibility.

With Lebanon’s political woes inextricably linked to broader tensions in the Middle East, few expect an imminent solution, further complicating international efforts to secure a peace agreement at a summit in Annapolis next week.

The Lebanese Government is supported by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia, which seek to disarm Hezbollah and keep Lebanon within a pro-Western orbit – free from Syrian influence and an obstacle to Iran’s regional ambitions.

The Lebanese Opposition prefers to keep Lebanon aligned with Iran and Syria, distrusting Washington’s interest in Lebanon, which it believes seeks only to weaken Hezbollah and protect Israel.

“Everyone in Lebanon is waiting for the balance of power in the region to clarify itself,” Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Centre in Beirut, said.

The worsening crisis has resulted in a surge in black market arms sales as worried Lebanese protect themselves from an uncertain future. The weapon of choice is the AK47 assault rifle. A year ago the most popular version of this classic weapon, the 1977-vintage “circle 11” (named after the markings stamped into the rifle’s metal work), cost £250. Today it is worth about £450. “People are buying guns more than ever. They are expecting a war,” said Abu Jamil, an arms dealer.

The rise in arms sales has led to an increase in shooting practice in the Lebanese mountains, where the distant crackle of rifle fire is becoming common at weekends. The unrelenting political crisis and speculation that militias are being formed has left many Lebanese aghast at the thought that the country could be sliding into civil war once more.

“How can we even be thinking of war again? Have we learnt nothing?” Hadi Sfeir, 42, a shopkeeper, asked.

A civil rights group called Khalass – Arabic for Enough! - began a series of actions this week to highlight the disgust it feels toward the political class. “We are extremely frustrated. I don’t think the politicians care about what ordinary Lebanese care about like the economy and being able to live in peace with each other,” Carmen Jeha, an activist with Khalass, said.

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History of conflict

1975 Bus attack by Christian gunmen kills 27 and precipitates a civil war among Sunni, Shia and Christian communities

1976-78 Syrian troops enter to restore order; Israel controls south

1982 US, French and Italian peacekeepers arrive, but withdraw after a suicide attack kills 296 of their troops

1988 Beirut splits between Muslim control in west and Christian in east; the latter declares war against Syrian troops

1990 Syrian air strike against Christian government leader, who flees to the French Embassy effectively ending the civil war

2000 Israeli forces withdraw from Southern Lebanon

2005 Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s murder blamed on Syria. Street protests force Syrian withdrawal

2006 Israel attacks Beirut and south Lebanon after Hezbollah forces in Lebanon seize Israeli troops.

January 2007 Hezbollah calls general strike to force Government to resign

Source: Times archive

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My Bit:

Rival governments? Will Lebanon look like it did when President Amine Gemayel left in the late 1980s? Oddly enough it may, especially considering the man Amine left in charge (in the 80s-1990), General Aoun, is a key player in this mess. Only now, Aoun isn't fighting the Syrians, he's in league with them and their Hezbollah proxies.

With rival governments, internal conflict will come. Interestingly, if the pro-US parties of March 14th are put up against the wall, this could look like 1982 all over again. In the Middle East, the enemy (Israel) of my enemy (Hezbollah/Syria) is my friend. This is especially true when your super/large power backers (US and France) aren't offering you even an ounce as much support (militarily, economically, and diplomatically) as Iran and Syria offer to their proxies.

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Elections + Militias x Weapons = Problems

Lebanese elections have been rescheduled for November 21, in Lebanon's recent history, the stakes have never been higher. Many in the media have been postulating there may be another civil war. Lebanese friends both here in the States and who are working the political scene in Beirut have also felt the same. Rumors are flying, a few days ago some thought there were running street battles between Hezbollah controlled Dahiya and Christian Ayn Rummaneh, then that Hezbollah kidnapped a number of Christians in Ayn Rummaneh.
The true story turned out like this:
A number of Hezbollah workers were building Samir Geagea's new house, Geagea is the head of the primarily Christian and anti-Syrian/Hezbollah Lebanese Forces. These workers were taking pictures of the construction site, just what Syria's intelligence apparatus in Lebanon needed! The Hezbollah members were subsequently caught. The men's families believed the Lebanese Forces had kidnapped them, and in return wanted to stir up problems in Ayn Rummaneh.

Some in Lebanon want to write off a genuine rearmament and recreation of many militias in the country. According to Ya Libnan, rifles are now selling for $900, those are American prices if I've ever seen them! In addition they noted the recreation of one militia, "The Mourabitoun, a leading Sunni militia in the early stages of the civil war, has reappeared as a political entity allied to the March 14 block. Mourabitoun gunmen helped reinforce Lebanese troops in May during the opening stage of a three-month battle against Al-Qaeda-inspired militants holed up in a Palestinian refugee camp in north Lebanon."

Hezbollah is now recruiting a reserve force of men in case a civil war breaks out. In addition Hezbollah has been arming, training and recruiting many from inside Michel Aoun's Free-Patriotic Movement (FPM) in the Bekka and the hills of Metn. Already, intra-sectarian violence peaked its head when a number of FPM gunmen shot and killed a Kataeb party supporter.

Here is what the picture is looking like:
Pro-Syrian militias:

• The largest and most powerful: Hezbollah, armed with rockets (as we saw in 2006 hitting northern and central Israel). A new reserve force to fight in a civil war, and already has a full time militia of 3000 men.

• Small but effective Christian helper: FPM, its now being armed with brand new "Iranian rifles" according the an-Nahar.

• Always a pro-Syrian stalwart: The Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), many of their politicians have personal militias.

• Palestinian help: PFLP-GC, recently a family conflict took on a more political sound, the fight then turned into one of Fatah vs. the PFLP-GC. Even during the Nahr al Bared conflict the PFLP-GC threw its weight behind Fatah al Islam when fighting the Lebanese Army. Also, the group was implicated in the murder of Kataeb Party member, and Minister of Parliament Pierre Amine Gemayel.

Pro-Western/March 14th militias:

• A small group of Lebanese Forces and Kataeb members (mostly ex-Sadem* members at the top) are re-arming and training in the hills. From my own research and knowledge the groups are very small, armed with (at least) 10 year old Kalashnikovs and pump action shotguns. The LF vehemently denies its forming a militia, but Lebanese private security firms can be easily compared to selling some chemicals to Saddam Hussein: They are dual use.
  

• As for the Sunnis, Mourabitoun, or at least some new form of it has been reconstituted in Tripoli and possibly in Beirut. It looks as though the private Hariri security form may also be part of some new Mustaqbal militia.

• One of the best militias of the Lebanese War, the Druze PSP, while officially (according to Walid Jumblatt) hasn't been rearming, is thought to be both rearming and training members in the Chouf Mountains. Additionally, I heard from a friend in Beirut that a Hezbollah member was killed by a PSP militiaman near Aley a day ago. So far there haven't been any news stories in regard to it, so it may either be another rumor or it could be just another killing that may lead to an explosion many expect.

University students in the FPM militia. Aoun denied these people were forming his own armed group, and then claimed they were part of his security.

Samir Geagea's security up in Bcharre. (my photo)

* During the Lebanese War, Sadem (meaning: Shock) were the most elite of the Lebanese Forces troops.

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