Syria’s Assassination Goal: Target March 14th Christians To Divide & Conquer: Article Published

Happy New Year everyone! I had another article published, this time by the Counterterrorism Blog. It was the first one posted for 2008. Enjoy:

http://counterterrorismblog.org/2008/01/syrias_assassination_goal_targ.php



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Addendum To My Last Post

Saw this in the Times:

From The Times

November 23, 2007

Rival factions return to arms as Lebanon stares into the abyss

Nicholas Blanford in Beirut

The centre of Beirut will be a sealed-off military zone today as MPs gather to elect a new president in a last-ditch attempt to prevent Lebanon from plunging into chaos and violence.

Émile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian head of state, leaves office at midnight today, but despite intense international mediation, no agreement appears to have been reached on a new president acceptable to the bitterly divided political camps.

The US-backed March 14 block, which holds a slim majority, has said that it will attend today’s session of parliament and threatened to elect a president from their own ranks if a consensus candidate is not found.

But the pro-Syrian Opposition, led by the powerful Shia Hezbollah party, says that it will boycott the election and has hinted it will respond by forming a rival government, a move that many Lebanese fear will lead to violence between heavily armed rival factions and tear the country apart.

That grim outlook appeared to draw closer last night with political sources saying that the continued lack of agreement could lead to the election being postponed, plunging Lebanon into constitutional limbo.

“Last day before zero hour: either a miracle or vacuum,” the An-Nahar daily headline said yesterday.

The foreign ministers of France, Spain and Italy are in Beirut shuttling between political leaders to push for agreement over the choice of president. In a further sign of international concern, President Sarkozy of France spoke by phone on Wednesday to Saad Hariri, head of the antiSyrian block, and Michel Aoun, the opposition candidate for president.

All three European countries contribute to a 13,300-strong United Nations peacekeeping force in south Lebanon and are aware that their soldiers would be at even greater risk if Lebanon fell apart.

Also at risk are MPs belonging to the March 14 block, more than 40 of whom have spent the past two months holed up in an annex of the five-star Phoenicia hotel in central Beirut. Four of their colleagues have been murdered since the June 2005 general election. Visitors pass through metal detectors and are escorted by bodyguards to meeting rooms.

The curtains are kept closed to avoid sniper fire. On the rare occasions MPs travel, they go in small unmarked cars and remove the chips from their mobile phones so that they cannot be tracked.

“The guys are all depressed staying here. It’s like a prison,” said Mosbah Ahdab, an MP from Tripoli, who moved into the hotel on Monday.

In an attempt to break the impasse last week, France persuaded Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir, the patriarch of the Maronite church, to submit a list of candidates from which the rival factions could select a president. Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system decrees that the president must be a Maronite. But neither camp is showing any sign of flexibility.

With Lebanon’s political woes inextricably linked to broader tensions in the Middle East, few expect an imminent solution, further complicating international efforts to secure a peace agreement at a summit in Annapolis next week.

The Lebanese Government is supported by the United States, France and Saudi Arabia, which seek to disarm Hezbollah and keep Lebanon within a pro-Western orbit – free from Syrian influence and an obstacle to Iran’s regional ambitions.

The Lebanese Opposition prefers to keep Lebanon aligned with Iran and Syria, distrusting Washington’s interest in Lebanon, which it believes seeks only to weaken Hezbollah and protect Israel.

“Everyone in Lebanon is waiting for the balance of power in the region to clarify itself,” Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Centre in Beirut, said.

The worsening crisis has resulted in a surge in black market arms sales as worried Lebanese protect themselves from an uncertain future. The weapon of choice is the AK47 assault rifle. A year ago the most popular version of this classic weapon, the 1977-vintage “circle 11” (named after the markings stamped into the rifle’s metal work), cost £250. Today it is worth about £450. “People are buying guns more than ever. They are expecting a war,” said Abu Jamil, an arms dealer.

The rise in arms sales has led to an increase in shooting practice in the Lebanese mountains, where the distant crackle of rifle fire is becoming common at weekends. The unrelenting political crisis and speculation that militias are being formed has left many Lebanese aghast at the thought that the country could be sliding into civil war once more.

“How can we even be thinking of war again? Have we learnt nothing?” Hadi Sfeir, 42, a shopkeeper, asked.

A civil rights group called Khalass – Arabic for Enough! - began a series of actions this week to highlight the disgust it feels toward the political class. “We are extremely frustrated. I don’t think the politicians care about what ordinary Lebanese care about like the economy and being able to live in peace with each other,” Carmen Jeha, an activist with Khalass, said.

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History of conflict

1975 Bus attack by Christian gunmen kills 27 and precipitates a civil war among Sunni, Shia and Christian communities

1976-78 Syrian troops enter to restore order; Israel controls south

1982 US, French and Italian peacekeepers arrive, but withdraw after a suicide attack kills 296 of their troops

1988 Beirut splits between Muslim control in west and Christian in east; the latter declares war against Syrian troops

1990 Syrian air strike against Christian government leader, who flees to the French Embassy effectively ending the civil war

2000 Israeli forces withdraw from Southern Lebanon

2005 Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s murder blamed on Syria. Street protests force Syrian withdrawal

2006 Israel attacks Beirut and south Lebanon after Hezbollah forces in Lebanon seize Israeli troops.

January 2007 Hezbollah calls general strike to force Government to resign

Source: Times archive

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My Bit:

Rival governments? Will Lebanon look like it did when President Amine Gemayel left in the late 1980s? Oddly enough it may, especially considering the man Amine left in charge (in the 80s-1990), General Aoun, is a key player in this mess. Only now, Aoun isn't fighting the Syrians, he's in league with them and their Hezbollah proxies.

With rival governments, internal conflict will come. Interestingly, if the pro-US parties of March 14th are put up against the wall, this could look like 1982 all over again. In the Middle East, the enemy (Israel) of my enemy (Hezbollah/Syria) is my friend. This is especially true when your super/large power backers (US and France) aren't offering you even an ounce as much support (militarily, economically, and diplomatically) as Iran and Syria offer to their proxies.

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Elections + Militias x Weapons = Problems

Lebanese elections have been rescheduled for November 21, in Lebanon's recent history, the stakes have never been higher. Many in the media have been postulating there may be another civil war. Lebanese friends both here in the States and who are working the political scene in Beirut have also felt the same. Rumors are flying, a few days ago some thought there were running street battles between Hezbollah controlled Dahiya and Christian Ayn Rummaneh, then that Hezbollah kidnapped a number of Christians in Ayn Rummaneh.
The true story turned out like this:
A number of Hezbollah workers were building Samir Geagea's new house, Geagea is the head of the primarily Christian and anti-Syrian/Hezbollah Lebanese Forces. These workers were taking pictures of the construction site, just what Syria's intelligence apparatus in Lebanon needed! The Hezbollah members were subsequently caught. The men's families believed the Lebanese Forces had kidnapped them, and in return wanted to stir up problems in Ayn Rummaneh.

Some in Lebanon want to write off a genuine rearmament and recreation of many militias in the country. According to Ya Libnan, rifles are now selling for $900, those are American prices if I've ever seen them! In addition they noted the recreation of one militia, "The Mourabitoun, a leading Sunni militia in the early stages of the civil war, has reappeared as a political entity allied to the March 14 block. Mourabitoun gunmen helped reinforce Lebanese troops in May during the opening stage of a three-month battle against Al-Qaeda-inspired militants holed up in a Palestinian refugee camp in north Lebanon."

Hezbollah is now recruiting a reserve force of men in case a civil war breaks out. In addition Hezbollah has been arming, training and recruiting many from inside Michel Aoun's Free-Patriotic Movement (FPM) in the Bekka and the hills of Metn. Already, intra-sectarian violence peaked its head when a number of FPM gunmen shot and killed a Kataeb party supporter.

Here is what the picture is looking like:
Pro-Syrian militias:

• The largest and most powerful: Hezbollah, armed with rockets (as we saw in 2006 hitting northern and central Israel). A new reserve force to fight in a civil war, and already has a full time militia of 3000 men.

• Small but effective Christian helper: FPM, its now being armed with brand new "Iranian rifles" according the an-Nahar.

• Always a pro-Syrian stalwart: The Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), many of their politicians have personal militias.

• Palestinian help: PFLP-GC, recently a family conflict took on a more political sound, the fight then turned into one of Fatah vs. the PFLP-GC. Even during the Nahr al Bared conflict the PFLP-GC threw its weight behind Fatah al Islam when fighting the Lebanese Army. Also, the group was implicated in the murder of Kataeb Party member, and Minister of Parliament Pierre Amine Gemayel.

Pro-Western/March 14th militias:

• A small group of Lebanese Forces and Kataeb members (mostly ex-Sadem* members at the top) are re-arming and training in the hills. From my own research and knowledge the groups are very small, armed with (at least) 10 year old Kalashnikovs and pump action shotguns. The LF vehemently denies its forming a militia, but Lebanese private security firms can be easily compared to selling some chemicals to Saddam Hussein: They are dual use.
  

• As for the Sunnis, Mourabitoun, or at least some new form of it has been reconstituted in Tripoli and possibly in Beirut. It looks as though the private Hariri security form may also be part of some new Mustaqbal militia.

• One of the best militias of the Lebanese War, the Druze PSP, while officially (according to Walid Jumblatt) hasn't been rearming, is thought to be both rearming and training members in the Chouf Mountains. Additionally, I heard from a friend in Beirut that a Hezbollah member was killed by a PSP militiaman near Aley a day ago. So far there haven't been any news stories in regard to it, so it may either be another rumor or it could be just another killing that may lead to an explosion many expect.

University students in the FPM militia. Aoun denied these people were forming his own armed group, and then claimed they were part of his security.

Samir Geagea's security up in Bcharre. (my photo)

* During the Lebanese War, Sadem (meaning: Shock) were the most elite of the Lebanese Forces troops.

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Dictatorship, The Only Solution For Lebanon?

I was listening to a band play some oldies and munching on some tabouli when the discussion on how to "fix" Lebanon came about. After much debate the director of my LAU program, a woman who had lived through the Civil War, and has a doctorate from Georgetown say, "the only way to fix Lebanon is with a dictator. Get a dictator who stops the sectarianism, makes us a nation, and gets some order." While she was fervently anti-Syrian, she must have noticed how Syria had grand gardens, clean streets, working traffic lights. Laws were observed and there was a semblance and order about the place. This is all completely lacking in Lebanon. Lebanon looks like a tribal mishmash.

A village pledges allegiance to their feudal tribal lord and that's final. Most Lebanese still don't go outside of their sectarian boundaries. Many Lebanese Christians I've met still refuse to drive down to predominantly Muslim Hamra, in Beirut. Just to note, Hamra is no more than 10 to 15 minutes away from Achrafieh (the Christian area).

How can democracy even hope to thrive in a place where the people will really only vote for their feudal lord and/or their sons? Its less a Parliament and more of a Bedouin style gathering. Each family/sectarian group has its own "tent," ie the Druze tent would constitute portions of the Chouf, the Christians would have much of Jabal Libnan, the Shi'ites would have the Bekka and the the south, Sunnis would have portions of Beirut, Sidon and Tripoli. In the end they all gather and try to grab as much of the pie (Lebanon) as they can for the family and sectarian group.

And we expect democracy to win out and deliver Lebanon from Syrian domination? I think not.

Dictatorship offers:

• Stability
• Security
• A chance for a country to have a unified goal
• The possibility of secularism

However, Lebanon would need some sort of a benign dictator the likes of Lee Kuan Yew. I doubt we will see such "progressive" leadership out of Lebanon. A Lebanese leader would need to push Lebanon as the Middle East's leader for free-market reforms, be secular (no more sectarianism), clamp down on Islamists (that includes Fatah al Islam types and Hizbollah), build a strong Lebanese Army, shut down anti-Lebanon parties (this would include the likes of the SSNP, a group that wants Lebanon's union with Syria). All in all a successful leader would end up alienating a good 50% of the population, at the very least.

Lebanon has already been under a dictator's heel, one who let Lebanon retrogress. When Syria's Asad ruled Lebanon, it was like his own private fiefdom. The country's money was sucked dry and everything was as corrupt as could be. As such I have serious reservations about the decendents of Phonecian traders really being able to pull off a success story here in Lebanon through dictatorship. I just don't see the dynamism needed to pull off true reform.

When I am around my Lebanese friends, they usually talk about the need for federalism, and a strong central government. Normally I would be inclined to agree, but realistically it doesn't seem like a strong federal government will come about in this country. The people physically and mentally block eachother off, and the mentalities about outside groups (I'm talking about Christians thinking about Druze, Sunnis thinking about Shi'ites, that kind of thing) has remained unchanged since the 1800s.

What do you seek, my countrymen?

Do you desire that I build for You gorgeous palaces, decorated With words of empty meaning, or Temples roofed with dreams?

Or Do you command me to destroy what The liars and tyrants have built?

Shall I uproot with my fingers What the hypocrites and the wicked Have implanted? Speak your insane Wish!

What is it you would have me do, My countrymen? Shall I purr like The kitten to satisfy you, or roar Like the lion to please myself?

I Have sung for you, but you did not Dance; I have wept before you, but You did not cry.

Shall I sing and Weep at the same time? - Khalil Gibran, My Countrymen

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The Lebanese Middle Class: Gone and Out

Many countries have marked their stability by the size of their middle class. American democracy and power was spurred by growth in the middle class. Even in Communist China the new burgeoning middle class of 200 million wants more stability and rule of law. To quote Ayn Rand, "upper classes are a nation's past; the middle class is its future." However, in Lebanon a middle class is almost nonexistent. Beirut is a have or have not world; if Rand was correct, the Lebanese are definitely retrogressing.

Lebanese people are like peacocks, they love to display their tail feathers. Only, in Lebanon they usually cannot afford the plumage they have bought.Everyday I see at least 3 high end Mercedes or BMWs, and that's just in Hamra. While I've been in Lebanon, I've seen everything from Hummer H2s, $90,000 BMWs and Maybachs, to Armani shirts, designer jeans, and $400 Gucci sunglasses. Regardless of the fact that 28% of the population lives below the poverty line (remember Lebanon has a population of almost 4 million).

I asked one of my Lebanese friends why so many Lebanese find it necessary to get cars and clothing they can't afford, the answer, "to get girls." Attracting the opposite sex aside, there is an underlying cultural current that makes Lebanese go and get extravagant things and live far beyond their means. Because the culture is one of "haves and have nots", all in this country, even the poorest Shi'ite from Dahiyia finds the need to live beyond his means.

Before the Lebanese War (1976-1990) Downtown Beirut was a place for the middle class. Neighborhoods thrived, and so did small shops. Following the war and Rafik Hariri's Solidere project the new downtown is one of high end boutiques, million dollar apartments, and one devoid of Lebanese. Who has moved into downtown? Arabs from the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait. All of the Gulf's oil oligarchs (I call them oilgarchs) who need a place to pass through, own property and cruise around in their BMWs in the downtown. Beirut has passed from being "Paris of the Middle East" to "Grand Central Station of the Levant." The oilgarchs use Beirut as a little resting stop before they head to Geneve, or go back to their own countries.

I wondered where the money came from for Lebanese to buy all of these luxury goods, some have bank loans up to their ears, others turn to a different source of cash: expatriates (in Africa, South America, Europe, and the US) or the Lebanese "mafia". I use the term mafia to describe thugs in Lebanon that peddle drugs and knock people off. expatriates returning to Lebanon aren't the doctors, lawyers, or the educated middle class, they are the super rich who want a house in their ancestral village. The others who return are the thugs who see Lebanon as a new place to peddle his goods.

Recalling history, the first people to leave the British Mandate of Palestine in 1947-1948 were the Arab middle class followed by the extremely wealthy. Without the leadership of an intellectual community that wanted and needed stability, the remaining Arabs in the Mandate were put at an extreme disadvantage, and eventual failure. Here in Lebanon the only two groups of (Lebanese) people left are the zuama (sectarian feudal lords) and the poor hard working Lebanese. Everyone wants to be a zuama, only in this place that is impossible. The next best thing is to try to put on a facade. Just remember, no matter how beautiful a facade is, if its covering something that is disintegrating, it too will eventually be destroyed.

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(Cult)ure of Martyrs

Shahid (Shaheed), in Arabic شهد: Martyr.

Save for Abraham Lincoln, we in the US we would have a hard time calling those who die because of politics, "martyrs." While religion plays a huge role in the United States, it pales in comparison to its importance in Lebanon and the broader Middle East. Lebanon was founded on sectarianism, even the non-religious are proud to identify themselves as "Muslim" or "Christian." Because religion plays such a huge role in politics and daily life, the word "martyr" gets tossed around quite a bit.

A martyr, according to the American Heritage dictionary is:

1. One who chooses to suffer death rather than renounce religious principles.
2.One who makes great sacrifices or suffers much in order to further a belief, cause, or principle.
3.

a. One who endures great suffering: a martyr to arthritis.
b. One who makes a great show of suffering in order to arouse sympathy.

Here in Lebanon it can mean your favorite murdered warlord, a killed militiaman who defended your village, a suicide bomber who murdered foreigners in an embassy, or a child that was killed due to an Israeli bomb, that's to name a few. If Lebanon had its own dictionary, a martyr follows this definition:

1. One who is killed by an opposing sectarian/tribal/family group.

2. One who killed others while killing him or herself in the process.

3. Anyone the Israelis kill (this can be anyone, from a man who is accidentally killed in a bombing raid against Hizbollah, or a terrorist infiltrator who gets shot while gunning down children in a school).

Because the Culture of the Martyr is so pervasive, martyrdom always finds its way into politics. Rafik Hariri, the multi-billionaire former Lebanese Prime Minister is considered by some Lebanese to be a martyr for being killed by Syria. Martyrdom was so important to the identity of the March 14th group that they also call themselves, the Rafik Hariri Martyr List. From many accounts Hariri tried to kiss and make up with the Syrians, so he technically wasn't so steadfast in his beliefs, what got him killed was that he was a little TOO vocal for Syria.

On political websites, pro-Syrian Maronite, Suleiman Frangieh maintains a list of 'martyrs.' Included on the list are Suleiman's son Tony and Tony's 3 year old daughter. After infighting over protection rackets and a falling out between Lebanese Front Leader Bachir Gemayel and Tony Franjieh due to the latters pro-Syrian attitude, there was spates of violence. These 'martyrs' were created when Gemayel wanted to hunt down a number of Marada (Franjieh's party) members for murdering Kataeb (Bachir's party) members. What resulted was a blood bath, 10 Kataeb party members were killed (that link is a pro-Lebanese Front view) when Franjieh refused to hand over those who were thought responsible, Tony, his family, and a number of others were killed by Kataeb gunmen. Sticking to the definition of what a martyr is, a 3 year old girl, her mother and warlord father don't really constitute martyrs. Nevertheless the term is used to stir political feelings.

Speaking to an ordinary Shi'ite girl about suicide bombers, I was immediately interrupted by her correcting me to call them "martyrs." I questioned her whether she considered the al Qaeda terrorists blowing up countless Shi'ites in Iraq as "martyrs" and she didn't understand what I meant. The view that people who blow themselves up and take countless innocents with them is considered glorious by many here. The innocents are written off, in the Middle East no one is innocent, sometimes its an incredibly black and white, us versus them environment. What could be more glorious than to 'sacrifice' your life while taking 30 'infidels' with you? This girl's views had been so warped by surrounding influences that anyone who rammed their Ryder van, loaded with fertilizer and diesel fuel into a crowd of people was a hero, a martyr--That's it, any criticism of the person or the act was blasphemous.

These men and women who are now hailed as demigods have had their problems, some of them were drug dealing warlords bent on domination, others were out and out terrorists, some were corrupt, no one here likes to look at the "other" side of them. Once you are a "martyr" in the eyes of the populace who coined this term for you, you could do no wrong. Who knows, maybe I'll come across the poster of a suicide bomber with the word "shahid" scrolled across it, go 50 meters down the street and find a poster of his victim(s) with "shahid" written prominently on it.

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* News about my trip: I am off to Syria this weekend

PR'bollah

While I have been in Lebanon, I have talked to numerous people. Many of them, Christians, Sunnis, and Shi'ites voice their support of Hizbollah. Talking to Hizbollah members and their supporters is a bit like playing high stakes poker. You need a good poker face and have to put up with the hand you are dealt. When I ask them about Hizbollah's connection to terrorism I get one of four answers:

1. "Its all American propaganda/Whenever America decides it doesn't like a group it calls it a terrorist group." (Its America's fault, as usual)

2. "They are resistance fighters, they never committed acts of terror." (Outright denial; Play the "Resistance Card")

3. "Has anyone from Hizbollah been nasty to you?" (Answering a question with a question. See, if they aren't mean to you, how in the hell could they bomb an embassy?!)

4. "They haven't killed any Lebanese." (Self Interest Card; This is factually incorrect considering they killed many in the Amal party during the war of the camps. When they bombed the US embassy in 1983 they killed 43 Lebanese. During the 1984 bombing of the US embassy they killed 20 Lebanese)

How is it Hizbollah can sway so many people into their sphere of thinking? It can't be ALL smoke an mirrors. They do legitimately (though massive Syrian and Iranian aid) provide social services for impoverished Shi'ites in the south,Bekka, and Beirut. They did have a hand in kicking out the Israelis from the south. Nonetheless, they still committed acts of terror (two bombings of the American Embassy in Beirut in '83 and '84; bombed the AMIA building in Buenos Aires; and kidnapped a number of Westerners), through instigating the war with Israel last summer they directly caused Lebanon's fledgling economy to collapse, and their armed presence causes an uproar amongst many other sectarian groups (namely the Sunnis, Christians and Druze).

The 2006 Israel-Lebanon War is another topic that solicits a number of responses:

1. "This was in response to Hizbollah members kidnapped by the Israelis." (Big Lie Technique; If you tell a lie enough people will believe it; just for the record Israel hadn't kidnapped any Hizbollah members before the war began. The operation to kidnap Israeli soldiers was originally called "Operation Free Samir Kuntar." Kuntar was a member of the PLF [Palestine Liberation Front] who murdered 4 people in Israel, including a 4 year old girl, with his rifle butt.)

2. "Hizbollah was trying to free Shebba Farms." (Occupation Card; Shebba Farms is a part of Syria that Israel has occupied since 1967, Syria has said its "given" the area to Lebanon. The UN stands behind Israel [a first] in saying the Israelis fully pulled out of Lebanon in 2000)

3. "All Hizbollah did was kidnap 2 soldiers, Israel killed 1200 Lebanese and destroyed the country; it was a disproportionate attack." (Turn the Aggressor Into the Victim; Who decides what is disproportionate (a very big moral-subjective)? If a terror group say [and I am speaking hypothetically here]...Attacked 2 buildings in NYC and one in Washington, DC is invading the country that supported them disproportionate?)

4. "Israel was planning to do this for a while" (Facts Taken Out of Context; Olmert admitted Israel had plans on the books in case Israelis were kidnapped in the north. Even so, if the US was attacked by China and we used one of our already made plans to strike back, does that mean America had been planning to attack China and was simply waiting for an excuse?)

Responses aside, the question remains how so many people can believe these things? Its a bit like believers in 9-11 conspiracies (and trust me there are plenty of those here), scientifically and factually, all of the theories have been disproved. When the facts are stacked up against people who believe these things, their response is to claim there is yet another conspiracy trying to hide the truth or alter reality. Here in Lebanon, Hizbollah has a number apparatuses to make sure those who believe in their web of conspiracies is believed:

1. Al Manar TV. Al Manar is Hizbollah's TV station here in Lebanon, it comes complete with Hizbollah propaganda videos, documentaries on how wonderful Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is, and anti-Semitic cartoons for the kids (like the cigarette industry, 'you gotta get 'em while their young').



2. Pop Stars. Many pop stars here in Lebanon (as in the US) love to jump onto a cause and support it all the way. Usually in the US, the cause isn't one involving armed Islamists (except for of course Janeane Garofalo) For example Julia Boutrous did a song based on a speech Nasrallah gave during the war:



Who needs Brittney Spears showing cleavage when you have steamy Jihadist action like this?

3. A Culture of Blame. Many Lebanese I have met subscribe to a culture of anti-self-responsibility. Nothing is ever their fault, it is always an outside actor. This all ties into the belief in crazy conspiracies to explain bad/good/odd things that happen.

4. That 'Ole Time Religion. Mix militancy with religion and you have a great "good vs. evil" fight. Satan is played by Israel/America ...[insert Western nation here]. God and his righteous forces is represented by the Davidesque (as in David and Goliath) Hizbollah. Its a real win-win situation using religion. If you militarily lose it can easily be written off as a punishment by God for failing to do something. If you win, it was divinely inspired, and shows how God is actually on your side. "If God is with us, who could be against us?"
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* In the US we have restaurants shaped like hot dogs, always fun to eat in a place that looks like what you're eating. In the photo above, Hizbollah constructed a roadside, Dome of the Rock. For Hizbollah its always good to drive by what you launch rockets for.

* I've heard conflicting reports that Julia Boutrous is a Communist, a member/supporter of the SSNP, and/or likes Michel Aoun. If anyone can give me the interview where she outlines her real political philosophy that would be great. For now I'll take down the "Michel Aoun supporter bit"

Political Graffiti: Lebanon Style

In Beirut and Lebanon in general, you can always tell what, or more precisely "whose" neighborhood/town you are in, due to the political graffiti. I decided that after a number of lengthy posts, and seeing American Graffiti (in Arabic) on TV, that I would post some Lebanese political posters/graffiti for your viewing pleasure.

Three posters for Rafik Hariri, on top a poster for Walid Eido (and his son), all of them were killed in bombings. All were members of the Future Movement. Location: Beirut

Samir Geagea's poster for the Lebanese Forces. Location: Bcharre

Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

Old posters for Danny Chamoun and his Ahrar Party. Location: Douma

Lebanese University: The orange check marks are for Michel Aoun's Tayyar Party, there are posters of Samir Geagea, Bachir Gemayel (holding the assault rifle), Kataeb (the green and brown cedar tree), and Pierre Amine Gemayel. Location: East Beirut (Achrafieh)

Yes, even the Communists have graffiti here. Location: Beirut (Hamra)

No political graffiti could be complete with out the smiling and waving Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah's leader. Location: Baalbek

Graffiti in support of UN resolution 1559, calling for the disarmarment of militias (that means you, Hizbollah) and the withdrawal of Syrian forces for Lebanon is present, right next to posters of George Hawi, the assassinated former head of the LCP (Lebanese Communist Party). Hawi was a longtime Syrian ally who was killed in a carbombing following his formation of the DLM (Democratic Left Movement). The DLM is a secular movement that became very anti-Syrian. Location: Jounieh

Underneath the roadsign is one for Amal (the green one with red stripes). Location: Baalbek

Syrian Workers, Mexican Illegals

As I mentioned before, July 15th is right down the road. To expand upon my blurb before, Syria is planning on pulling out its workers in Lebanon on the 15th. This has been a huge cause of concern by analysts and by common Lebanese who feel the pullout of Syrian workers is just the prelude to a new terror-offensive led by Damascus. This May, Syria, acting in consort with the Islamist terror group, Fatah al Islam (an Islamist off-shoot to Fatah Intifadah, A Syrian created and financed Palestinian group), launched assassinations, bombings, and other attacks against anti-Syrian politicians (namely Walid Eido), locals that are heavily anti-Syrian (namely Achrafieh, Aley, and Korietem), and the Lebanese Army. Recently the head of the UN probe into Rafik Hariri's murder has stated that the recent combat operations involving Fatah al Islam and the Lebanese Army, are hindering their investigations; how convenient for Damascus.

With Syrian workers being pulled out, the Lebanese economy may suffer. The Syrians have firmly implanted themselves into the economy of Lebanon. Its interesting to note that Syrian workers are in many ways like illegal Mexican immigrants in the United States, but there are also many differences.

1. They are coming to seek higher wages, an American's average wage (this includes middle and upper class workers) is around $42,000; a Mexican's average wage (also includes their middle and upper classes) is around $3,300. Syria's average wage is around $1,200 a year, compared to Lebanon's 9,600 a year.


2. During Lebanon's occupation by Syria, Syrian workers were given free range to work in Lebanon, meanwhile, if a Lebanese wanted to work in Syria it was not allowed. On the other hand illegal immigrants to Mexico can face stiff jail sentences.


3. Syria considers Lebanon to be an integral part of Syria, just as many Mexicans consider the southwestern United States to be part of Mexico. Former Mexican President Zedillo said,“I have proudly affirmed that the Mexican nation extends beyond the territory enclosed by its borders.” Syrian president Bashar Asad said, "We, the Syrians would continue to give to Lebanon because you are the grandchildren of the Syrian Arabs."


4. Experts such as Habib C. Malik have called Syria's workers in Lebanon, "nothing short of a movement toward Syrian colonization of Lebanon." In the City Journal, Manhattan Institute contributor, Heather Mac Donald wrote,“Mexico’s five-year development plan in 1995 announced that the ‘Mexican nation extends its border into the United States. The government would strengthen solidarity programs with the Mexican communities abroad by emphasizing their Mexican roots, and supporting literacy programs in Spanish and teaching of the history, values and traditions of Mexico to those Mexicans living in the United States. We are betting the Mexican population in the U.S. will think Mexico first.’”


5. About 200,000 Syrian workers are in Lebanon out of a population of 3.9 million; there are anywhere from 7-12 million illegal Mexican migrants out of a population of 200 million.


6. Syria uses car bombs and political coercion to control Lebanon. Fortunately for Washington, Mexico hasn't started using terrorism.

I wanted to see what supporters of Syria's staunch ally, Hizbollah felt about the Syrians leaving. I asked one university student, and Hizbollah supporter from south Lebanon, "what will happen on the 15th?" Her answer, "problems." It seems that even erstwhile supporters of a Syrian proxy know that Syria will cook up problems for Lebanon.

"You see Phillip," she said, "I am with Syria because they help Hizbollah to free my village, I wouldn't be able to see my parents, but these Syrian workers take people's jobs, they make it so we make less money." Of course, in typical Lebanese fashion, self-interest comes first, but it also shows that in Lebanon many things are "grey."

The Lebanese Army is planning on crushing the Fatah al Islam stronghold of Nahr al Bared. Fatah al Islam, most recently, launched a rocket attack against Tripoli. Syria, after inspiring a set of numerous explosions and disturbances throughout Lebanon, is pulling out its nationals. Also the Hariri Tribunal is supposed to name a number of suspects in the investigation, this could include Syrian officials. Last, but not least, Iran has agreed inspections of their heavy water plants and atomic reactors. Things in Lebanon will only heat up.
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*Picture above is of the ABC Achrafieh bomb site, interesting to note that the people cleaning up the site were Syrian construction workers.
*All Pictures on here are taken by me, and my property, all rights reserved.

No Fireworks For The Fourth; Fireworks For the 15th?

During Syria's occupation of Lebanon they exploited both Lebanon's politicial system and its economy. Thousands of Syrian workers, even following Syria's pullout of Lebanon in 2005, make their living off of higher wages in Lebanon. However, it has been announced by Syria that it is pulling all of its workers out on July 15th. Many are speculating the country might have a new round of Syrian inspired terrorist attacks.

Only time can tell

Happy 4th, Blame America!

In regards to anti-Americanism and the "blame America" tendencies of many on the left, the late Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick said it best, "When Marxist dictators shoot their way into power in Central America, the San Francisco Democrats don't blame the guerrillas and their Soviet allies. They blame United States policies of 100 years ago. But then they always blame America first." Hyperbole and hypocrisy are two words that best describe most people's views here. Its no different here in the Middle East, America is usually the cause of every ill and the reason behind every failure.

There is a certain Islamic tendency I've noticed to rarely look inward at the source of many ills and instead to look outward, usually at the most powerful non-Muslim empire/state/outside power and express their wrath at it. Some of these reasons are legitimate, toward the end of the Ottoman Empire, Russia was encroaching into mainly Muslim territories such as Bukhara, and in the Caucuses (which were Ottoman provinces). As a result Russia was seen as the 'Great Satan' for the later part of the 19th century. Tags such as "Godless Atheists" or "foreign invader" would return to Russia in the 1970s and 80s as they invaded Afghanistan. Still, you don't hear many Muslims calling the Soviet Union the Great Satan, regardless of the fact that they had state sanctioned Atheism, suppressed Muslims, and (if we are being literal here) absorbed "Muslim lands" (the Kingdom of Bukhara or the lands to the east of the Caspian are prime examples) into its great empire. Even today, war rages on in Chechnya, many foreign Jihadists have joined the fight against Russia. Nevertheless the main country that is to blame for Middle Eastern problems is the United States.

The Middle East is a Catch 22. I am paraphrasing, but I heard a number of American soldiers in Iraq say on TV, "if something happens they blame us, no matter if our intentions are good, they just hate us, we can't do anything right." Its quite true, let's take Lebanon for instance. In the US we call it "Taxi Wisdom," the man on the street who is driving the taxi usually has the general views of much of the population and much wisdom to go with it. Here in Lebanon I call it "Security Guard Wisdom." I am friendly with all of the security guards at LAU and we always love to talk about politics. They will ask me, "when will America kill Asad, why haven't they done it already?" My answer is usually, "we don't have the power to do that, and what happens to Syria AFTER he is gone?" It seems the basics (let's say assassinating Bashar Asad) is far more important then the kind of chaos the country would descend into following any such assassination. I am sure the answer I would get AFTER we kill Asad would be, "well why didn't America stop the anarchy? Why couldn't you just leave Asad?"

Personal responsibility isn't big in the Middle East, if a scapegoat is present "everyone is happy." Let's take Syria, a repressive dictatorship, terror sponsor, and all round not so nice player in the "Middle Eastern sandbox." Why must Syria have huge expenditures on its military and be so oppressive against its own people? Easy answer: 'The Zionists and Americans!' Their internal economic problems are never the regimes fault, no, its some huge conspiracy by America and Israel to destroy Syria. No matter the fact that its incredibly implausible this view is, it is somehow curried as fact. As we have seen, Syria has sponsored and STILL sponsors terrorism against the US and Israel, yet the regime is still around, wouldn't this be enough to convince someone on the street that maybe America isn't all powerful? Definitely not.

This myth that America is all powerful is a sham created by the people in need of a scapegoat. Sometimes even their own propaganda gets the best of them, in Iran for instance America is considered the 'Great Satan' and a nation that controlled EVERYTHING in Iran. When Jimmy Carter's rescue attempt of the hostages held in Tehran failed, the answer by the ayatollahs was: HA! America is nothing more than a paper tiger! The Iranians, feeling strong in the 80s upped the ante in the Gulf against the tankers using mines. There decision came around to bite them when the US launched Operation Praying Mantis and sank the Iranian frigate Sahand.

The Hizbollah supporters whom I've met here at LAU are probably the most affected by the "America-did-it Syndrome." They would routinely deny that Hizbollah was EVER engaged in terrorist activities against the United States, "we are just resisting invaders, we don't kill innocent people." I asked if "invaders" included the 63 people, mostly Lebanese, including 17 embassy staff, murdered via Hizbollah car bomb in April of 1983? The answer I received was, "well there must have been a reason it was attacked." Of course, when the facts are stacked up against these sorts of people they always say, "see Phillip your government tells you the opposite to the truth." Whenever a book, article, or anything is produced to say, "hey you guys are wrong," it is deemed as American propaganda.

I once brought up the "War of the Camps", a prolonged bloody conflict primarily between Palestinians and the Shia, and between Shia groups. The two primarily players at each others throat were the more secular Amal Pary and the Iranian backed Hizbollah. Today the two are allies, so I asked these Hizbollah supporters what their views were on that conflict. Their answer was as usual hypocritical, "it was an inter-Shia thing," so I asked, "if you were killed by a fellow Shia it wouldn't be as bad as opposed to if an American killed you?" Considering hundreds if not thousands of Shia were killed in the conflict, one would assume that possibly it would be realized that its not always "America's fault." Of course this fell upon deaf ears. Following that interchange, they told me how the Hizbollah members protesting in Martyr's Square were opposing US influence and control of Lebanon. I asked, "what would make Syrian or Iranian domination or control any better?" Their answer, "we are the same people, and they want what's best for Lebanon." This ignores the fact that Iran is most definitely Persian, not Arab (as the Lebanese Shia consider themselves), and that Syria has killed Hizbollah members before. To quote the MEIB (Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, a more right wing, anti Syria publication), "In early 1987, Amal launched a disastrous campaign against rival Druze and Palestinian forces in west Beirut, prompting Syrian forces to enter the area on February 22. During the operation to secure control of the Basta quarter, Syrian troops killed 23 Hezbollah members who allegedly attacked them."

This isn't a solely Muslim phenomena, many of the Christians of Lebanon blame the US for the loss of Lebanon to Syria. I was speaking to a friend regarding American policies in the region and his answer was, "America sold us out, they let Syria have Lebanon so you could fight in Iraq [referring to James Baker's deal with Damascus, pulling Israeli air cover of the Christian enclave in 1990]." There is much truth to that statement, but to allow all of the blame to fall on the United States ignores many basic facts. For instance Syria was the Soviet Union's main ally in the Middle East following the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreements, they supplied Damascus with thousands of tanks, airplanes, and other weapons. In addition the Christians main enemies (namely the Druze, Sunni Arab Communists, and the PLO) were all Soviet clients. Also regardless of whether America gave the "green light" or not to a Syrian invasion, Damascus already controlled 3/4ths of the country. The Syrian goal, regardless of what the Soviets or Americans told them, was to conquer Lebanon. Even Syria's greatest ally, the Soviet Union, was incredibly mad with Syria for attacking leftist forces (the Soviets backed) and creating tumult in the area. Following Lebanese Army General, Michel Aoun's "War of Liberation," a time when he attacked the Syrian Army, to push them from Lebanon, the Syrians were, air cover of not, going to try to take the Christian areas. Blaming America also ignores that the United States inadvertently preserved Christian power in Lebanon in 1958, and helped stabilize the country, following Lebanese President Chamile Chamoun's plea for American assistance vs. what Chamoun characterized as a Communist takeover.

The question remains, "why is it always America's fault?" Its a number of reasons, it isn't just because we are "the most powerful nation in the world/the world's only superpower."Former vice- chair of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA, Graham Fuller, (again I'm paraphrasing) says much of the hatred against America is because of an Islamic view that they were once the dominant empire in the world, respected and feared, and now they are not united and they perceive they are controlled by outside Western influence, who is the biggest and most powerful of the Western nations? The US. Atlantic Monthly writer Robert Kaplan charts the rise of Islamism (and its anti-American overtones) to rebelling against globalization. Globalization is, of course, primarily pushed by America.

Again, the Middle East is a cocktail of tribal identities, and sometimes the only way to get them to work as one, is by finding an outside enemy. America, with its liberal social policies (as compared to much of the Arab world), massive conventional military power, and strong presence abroad make it a clear target. Arab governments use this to their advantage. If the economy is poor, and in comparison America's is large and booming, it was all an American plot. If the military is too repressive, its only to protect the nations identity and keep it out of American hands: in essence its written off "a necessary evil." In the eyes of a common person here and of course many other places, anything that is large, powerful, and seemingly better in many respects than home will be an instant competitor or potential enemy. An old Arab proverb says it best, "I against my brother I and my brother against our cousin, my brother and our cousin against the neighbors all of us against the foreigner." Now imagine that foreigner is more powerful then the brother, the cousin, and your neighbors. This is human nature, only in the Middle East it often takes a violent turn.

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Happy 4th of July from a place that doesn't celebrate Independence Day, but has enough fireworks to light up 1000 American cities.

I am headed to al arz (this blogs namesake) aka the cedars, and northern Lebanon on Friday. I will visit Batroun, Bcharre, and a number of other locations.

To Jbeil

The Mediterranean sprays against the shoreline of the world's oldest seaport, Jbeil (also known as Byblos), are breathtaking. After driving through Jabal Libnan we reached the seaport and I marveled at its antique grandeur. The view was beyond belief, in front of me was the Mediterranean, further on was the ancient Byblos castle, to the right the ancient seaport, used by mariners since time immemorial.

The castle was a combination of two parts fairy tale mixed with one half history text book. The area had been continuously inhabited by some of the world's most interesting invaders and civilizations. To name a few of them the Phoenicians, Alexander the Great's Greeks, Ramses' Egyptians, Romans, Frankish Crusaders, Ottomans, Arabs, and yes, even the French all called Jbeil and its castle home at one time or another. The ruins were quite expansive, and spread over a large area that was buttressed by the sea. At the top of the castle there was a view to die for. I could see all the way out to the Mediterranean and the whole city (including the old historic parts) of Jbeil.

Jbeil is a primarily Christian city on the Lebanese coast, so the political graffiti was a bit different than what one would find in a place like Beirut. The main contenders for wall space in Jbeil were Bachir Gemayel (assassinated president of Lebanon and founder of the Lebanese Forces), Orange check marks belonging to Michel Aoun's Tayyar Movement, Kataeb Party graffiti in the shape of a cedar, and Samir Geagea and his Lebanese Forces.

You could definately see that Jbeil had been hit hard by the lack of tourists. The zouk (market) down by the ancient seaport was virtually empty, the vendors tried to charge an arm and a leg for anything, I must say though I found a beautiful (albeit overpriced, so I didn't purchase anything) book store loaded with Lebanese history books in three different languages.

I love the imagery that always shows Israel or Lebanon with a dove and olive branch in its mouth. These are two places where political violence knows no bounds, but I can understand the pictures to a point. As I stood atop the Jbeil castle I realized how peaceful a place Lebanon could potentially be. I would guess that the combination of seaspray, expansive views, Crusader era embattlements and the beautiful breeze would have that effect.

Misty Jabal Hop

I was up bright and early to head out to northern Lebanon, more specifically Jbeil (Byblos) and the Mt. Lebanon area. Even at 7 o'clock the weather here is muggy and hot. If the breeze wasn't so forceful I would have sweated through yet another T-shirt. At around 7:30am we boarded a bus, the bus had Reagan era orange curtains, barely functional air vents, the bus had seen better days, when MTV was new. I sat next to a very well educated Turkish girl who worked with the Washington Institute, we had a good conversation about a wide variety of topics, and listened to CCR and Journey on my headphones (That's right Lebanon, Don't Stop Believin'). We were also "blessed" by the fact that we both have low blood sugar, so I guess we had each other's back.

The bus headed up the coastal road past Downtown Beirut, the seaport, Rabieh, and up the (in)famous Jabal Libnan (Mt. Lebanon). After living in Colorado I was much more comfortable with the change in altitude, less humidity in the air, and cooler breezes one would get in the mountains. The mountains here are truly spectacular; I can only speculate what they may have looked like in the 17 and 1800's when the first Victorian Europeans started to explore the area, but I am pretty sure there weren't many concrete high rises.

To the Jeita Grotto! To get to Jeita travellers have to board a cable car. The cable car is a no-frills ride that goes over a small stream bed and through a valley lined with very green trees. When it gets to the cave complex you go through a small turnstile and into the cave. The cave complex is of course dark, but also cool and misty. The combination of those things makes me understand why so many aesthetics and mystics would often become hermits in the complexes. Inside the cave had a nice little walk way and lights pointing at all of the marvelous stalactites. Further on there was a boat ride through the cave. The water inside the cave is very cool, I would often put my hand in to feel it or throw some on my head. Even though the water is not very deep, the lights placed into the water make it have this very Caribbean feel, even the sand on the bottom is white.

Following the boat ride, we were coerced to watch a movie that reminded me of those 1950s made for school, Mcgraw Hill productions, "From the makers of Duck and Cover: What You Need to Know About Reds and 'The Bomb', its, Caves and Stalactites a New Frontier!" (note: I just made that little bit up, I'm sure you get the idea) To top that off the theater was boiling, I must have been perspiring so much that I lost at least 3 gallons of water. After the movie we took "the train," a more or less hyped up gasoline powered golf cart pulling carloads of my fellow students to the small petting zoo of native Lebanese animals. For people who know me, I love to play with any animal that comes within a mile radius. Because of this, I had a ball harassing the grown and baby Shami and Mt. Lebanon goats, with whom I played with for a few minutes.

We left Jeita and started to hit the same altitude I was used to in Colorado, about 6-7000FT. We then drove off the paved road onto what looked like a deserted dirt road, lined with wild mint, mountain flowers, and some wild herbs. We were in Faqra, about 45km from Beirut. Faqra is home to the world's highest Roman temple, and the largest set of ruins in Lebanon. The ruins were very well maintained albeit they were fenced off with a rusty chain link fence. There were the remains of columns, an old church, and the most spectacular of all, the columned entrance to the temple remains, the pyramid shaped roof has long disappeared, but the splendour of the entrance columns was somthing Nero himself couldn't have imagined.

The area around the temple was virtually empty, save for the few lizards that were basking in the heat and my tour group. I climbed to the top of one of the Roman (and later Byzantine) walls to enjoy the view of the mountains. The mix of colors is almost Tuscan, with reds, sepia, green, and many hues of gold. The hills here have a mix of sepia and reddish soil. there are some grains, herbs, and piles of sharp straw (I say sharp because they can penetrate a sneaker) dotting the landscape.

Just up the hill from Faqra are the world famous Faqra ski resorts. In Lebanon it was popular to say that in spring you could be bask in the sun at the beach in the morning, and in half an hour's drive go skiing. Even though Lebanon is currently experiencing a heat wave, I could easily see how beautiful the area could be with a little snow.

We continued to drive to the north and stopped to view the natural stone bridge (jusoor al Hijar) at Kfardebian. Some of villages that line the roads here are something out of a story book. They are dun colored, some have red tiled roofs, in the Christian villages you can see Lebanese Forces symbols and shrines to the Virgin Mary. Sometimes out of nowhere you see a modern looking house/apartment building in the middle of nowhere, empty, as if a family of vagrants were squatting in it for the past 10 years. Around the villages there are terraced hills, many different types of fruit trees, ranging from lime, pomegranate, orange, figs, to a variety of apples.

Up in Jabal Libnan you could definitely see the "tribal" breakdown of the people. Since the 1850s the area had been fought over by the Druze and the Christians. In 1860 the Druze massacred up to 10,000 Maronites, Greek Catholics, and other Christians. Currently, much of the Druze are represented by Walid Jumblatt's PSP (Progressive Socialist Party) and many of the Christians belong to Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces. During the 1975-1990 war the PSP and LF fought incredibly bloody battles against one another to control the mountain. At times the Druze would massacre the Christians, and other times Christians would massacre the Druze.
The more I experienced life in the mountains, I could see how certain sectarian values were in turn brought by those villagers to the bourgeois capital of Beirut. Mix materialism, religious fanaticism, and provincial views and you have a healthy reason why you can always tell which sectarian neighborhood you are in because of the posters that line the walls. The mountains are a kill or be killed type of area. You could hide out in them for weeks, and no one could/would find you. The villages seem quite self sufficient. They remind me of micro-city states in the hills; Supplying their own food and social functions in times of peace, militias and communal defence in times of war.

As we continued driving the tiny, winding mountain roads, I was astonished to find an all Shia village near Kferdiban. Older women wore the Iranian chador, a few younger girls were in Western clothing, for the most part it was a conservative village. Young children came out to gawk at the bus, in one case a 7 year old boy threw a rock at the bus. The village was complete with Amal and Hizbollah flags, posters of Hassan Nassrallah and Samir Kuntar, and a small mosque decked in yellow and green sheets. (yellow and green are the colors of Hizbollah and Amal respectively). Past the village were a set of small waterfalls and springs. The springs were fresh but I wouldn't drink from them. In Lebanon I have noticed many people care about preserving the environment, but many villagers, even when its within their self interest, still don't care. For instance, there is a small sitting area where one can have a soda near the springs. The covered women would wash dirt and filth from the floors into the very streams and water lauded as crisp, fresh, and scenic.

To the villagers the small "cafe" was the perfect place to scam a few extra lira, they tried to charge 2000 L.L for a coke (that's about $1.30); of course, the cokes are bought by stores for about 250-500 L.L, I'm guessing a bit of the profit went to Tehran, so I argued with the shrewd little boy selling the cokes and got 2 of them for 1500, I guess it does pay sometimes to have a university education! I guess I also had another laugh considering they were selling Coke, Coca-Cola in turn sells A LOT to Israel. Oh irony, thou hast smiled upon me.

Apart from the Coke, irony is always present no matter where you turn in this county. Old enemies are friends and sometimes friends are enemies. In the village I mentioned there were both Amal AND Hizbollah flags, however, in 1985 Hizbollah and Amal (both Shia groups) fought countless bloody battles in what was refered to as "the War of the Camps." Right now the PSP and the LF are allied in the March 14th grouping. The PSP used to be one Syria's strongest allies, now Jumblatt (often called "the fox" for his unabashed realism in politics) is completely anti-Syria. Henry Kissinger was off by a few hundred miles when he did his dissertation on Realpolitik, instead of analyzing von Metternich, he should have analyzed Jumblatt.

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* Next post will be on my trip I made to Jbeil.

Is War On The Horizon of The Eastern Mediterranean?

I was browsing Michael Totten's website and came upon the article, Feels Like 1967, Redux. To paraphrase, Totten explained how Israel is assuming that at some time this summer an attack will come from Iran, Syria, Lebanon (through Hizbollah), or even al Qaida.

According to WorldTribune.com, "Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin told the Cabinet that the Jewish state faces five adversaries in what could result in an imminent confrontation. Yadlin cited Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and Al Qaida.'Each of these adversaries is capable of sparking a war in the summer,' Yadlin was quoted as saying."

I have serious doubts that al Qaeda could really take Israel on via Lebanon, Gaza, or the W. Bank. They usually operate in Arab/Muslim countries and strike targets within them. One of their few anti-Israel strikes was in Mombassa, Kenya, while this caused great alarm it didn't spark a war.

Hamas is a different ball of wax from al Qaeda. First, Hamas is busy solidifying its control of Gaza and that probably won't be complete, atleast, for a few more weeks. This doesn't mean that they won't try to launch rockets or hit and run attacks against Israel, but I think Olmert is quite wary of sending the army into Gaza so soon after the debacle he managed in Lebanon. One must also consider that Hamas does get some of its orders from Damascus, so if Asad decides he would much rather have a low-intensity war on Israel's southern border he may choose to do that.

As a casual observer who is currently residing in Lebanon, A.K.A the country that is home to Hizbollah and location of the war last July; it is my fundimental belief that if there is a new war against the Jewish state it will be along the same lines as the war last year.

Why Will A War Come?

• Lebanese presidential elections are on September 25th, Syria has been at work this spring and summer knocking off anti-Syrian MPs (namely Walid Eido). Emile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president of Lebanon is going to have to step down. The last thing Damascus wants is an anti-Syrian Maronite (namely Amine Gemayel or another Maronite from the anti-Syrian Rafik Hariri Martyr List). If a crisis can be made by Damascus, Beirut may have to delay elections, or if Damascus is feeling adventurous it may just contiune knocking off more politicians.

• The current Lebanese Army vs. Fatah al Islam war started around the same time the UN was going to start its tribunal for Rafik Hariri. Syria has a vested interest in keeping Lebanon destabilized at this time. If there is war, how can the UN carry out any investigation?

• Iran is facing internal strife and external pressure. Internally there were numerous riots due to gas rationing. According to the New York Times,
" Unrest spread in Tehran on Thursday, the second day of gasoline rationing in oil-rich Iran, with drivers lining up for miles, gas stations being set on fire and state-run banks and business centers coming under attack.

Dozens were arrested, and the Tehran police chief, Ismail Ahmadi Moghaddam, complained to reporters that the police had been caught unaware by the decision to ration fuel.

The anger posed a keen threat to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was elected two years ago on a platform of bringing income from oil to the nation’s households. Instead, even though Iran is one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, it has been forced to import about 40 percent of its gasoline at an annual cost of $5 billion to make up for shortfalls in its archaic refining industry."

In the Middle East distraction from domestic problems can be solved by a foreign adventure. Due to the success of Hizbollah's last war against Israel, they may feel emboldened to launch another one. If Hizbollah succeeds again then the Iranian leadership could find its way out of another problematic internal situation.

Add that the possibility of the international community pushing for tighter sanctions on the Iranians. Currently the international community is offering Iran a "nuclear time out" I.E. Iran should hold off temporarily from Uranium enrichment. The Iranians could very well ignore the initiative and continue on their current course of enrichment.

• Arms are flowing into Lebanon faster than water out of a faucet. Syria and Iran have been pumping Hizbollah with new arms. The UN has been complaining that Iran and Syria have not been respecting an arms ban into Lebanon.What does someone do when they get new toys? Do I really need to answer this one? All right: THEY USE THEM!

When I talked with the mother of a friend here she was telling me about a new article (I believe it was in An Nahar) that discussed how Hizbollah was ready for a new war against Israel. Many of the Christians here feel a war will break out at any time. Hizbollah has become excedingly powerful and to some extent it has left the Lebanese Christian population to feel immasculated. To quote my friend's mother, "Hizbollah wants to Islamicize Lebanon and have war all the time."

However there is an opposing view. Some on the Lebanese street are convinced no war will come and its simply sabre rattling by both sides. As I am writing this, I asked a Druze girl sitting at the computer next to me whether she thought a war would occur this summer, her answer, "they have been saying that for the past 5 to 6 months, I doubt there will be war." Israel has also been very cautious in regards to its northern border. Following a number of recent Katusyia rocket hits, Jerusalem decided to just ask UNIFIL to do a better job. Granted many people said this attack was from a rouge Palestian group trying to scuttle the cease fire in the south, but Israel did attack the PLO in 1982 after Shlomo Argov was attacked by the Abu Nidal Organization (Abu Nidal and the PLO were both Palestinian groups, but, they hated eachother, Abu Nidal was far more extremely violent and considered the PLO to be a sell out group).
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I'll add a bit more as the time comes. More interviews/travel-logs to come, look out for:

• A trip to Dahiya with a publisher friend (she's great, Ms. Wasta). Dahiya is the HQ of Hizbollah conjoined with a Palestinian refugee camp, and is located in S. Beirut. Currently Dahiya is a pile of rubble due to successive Israeli airstrikes. This should be interesting...

• A trip to Harrisa (حريصا) & Jbeil/Byblos (جبيل). I am going there on Saturday---So look forward to a late night blog post.

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This post is in serious need of additions and editing, so treat the current post as a proto-version of whatever is going to come.

Martyrs' Square

Yesterday I headed out with J, her sister N, A and E. They have been incredibly hospitible towards me and I feel as though I am one of the family, its the sort of acceptance you would rarely find in the United States; I have only expereienced it within my own family and with my girlfriend.

I really feel at ease, unstressed and at peace here. Despite the random violence (nothing has hit Beirut so far), and, in some places uncleanliness there is a general relaxed feeling about the people. I honestly think most of them are more curious about me than I am of them, I've never been stared at quite so much, but its not a stare of disgust, it is one of interest.

J, N, A, and E (we can't forget E!), were kind enough to take me to the downtown area. Many Lebanese, especially those in the Christian community rarely go to the downtown area because of the Hizbollah tent city that sprouted up in the square. Also, because of the terrorism purpotrated by Fatah al Islam many of Lebanon's most famous sites look like ghost towns. I wasn't about to let this deter me, but then again, I must put my thanks out to my friends who were kind enough to drive me there, guide me and put up with their feelings of rage against Hizbollah, which they regard as a state within their state. Not to mention deal with a routy American who always sticks his nose in things.

The Garden(s) of the Shahid (Martyr)

Martyr's Square first attained its name from six Lebanese nationalists who were hanged by Ottoman authorities in World War One, following a revolt against the Turks. The Palace des Martyrs' (as its known in French) was also the place in 2005 that the March 14th rally was held. It was described to me by friends who attended the event as a remarkably huge sea of humanity; Sunnis, Druze, Christians, and even some Shia all comming together to protest Syria's murder of Rafik Hariri and to get Syria to pull out of Lebanon. This is one of the few squares I've been to that not only features "martyrs of the past" but of "martyrs of the present." If you look east you can see the Kataeb Party headquarters adorned with a poster of slain leader Pierre Amine Gemayel, to the center of the square there is the An Nahar Newspaper tower with a huge poster of murdered MP and writer Gebran Tueni, towards the new mosque built by Rafik Hariri is his tomb and that of his body guards, all killed by Syria. Even the statue commemorating the 6 executed nationalists is scared by war as there are bullet holes all over the bronze. In Lebanon death is always around the corner, or in this case in the square, but life is always so vibrant. I toured around Place de l'Étoile which features the famous Rolex clock tower, normally the square would be PACKED with people, but today, because of the high heat and the fear of terrorism, tourists and locals have just stayed home.

We continued on in central Beirut and I went into this stunning Greek Orthodox Cathedral called The Cathedral of Saint George. The churches and cathedrals here are simple on the outside, using heavy stone, mixing Byzantine, Western, and Arab architecture. On the inside they are incredibly ornate and stunning. In Saint George's there were murals of angels, gold leaf covering the columns, and 3 burning candles in the back. If you aren't religious like me, the building could definately cause you to reconsider.

Following the tour around City Centre, everyone took me to Club 43 in Achrafieh. The club is within (and excuse the pun here)a gunshot's distance from Martyrs' Square, has a French flag hanging from its 18/19th century window, and is up a darkened flight of steps. Our server was an Australian hippie who served us shots (ouzo) and then our other food and drinks. I must note that they have the best iced tea I've had in Lebanon, but the food was hit or miss.

"Wierd New Jersey" Doesn't Have ANYTHING on "Wierd Lebanon"

On another side note, Lebanon has always been a place of contradictions, a place where the militant Islamist group Hizbollah can launch katusyia rockets at Israel but at the same time where one can get drunk in a bar off absinthe, 500FT from a Hizbollah protest.

I've noticed that time isn't that important in Lebanon. In my dorms there are no clocks, just one clock on the bottom floor (I am up 4 flights of steps to my room). Appointments are made but I've noticed that they are rarely kept, for instance I was supposed to have lunch with a Hizbollah member, we made plans the night before and she was atleast 20 minutes late and wasn't hungry.

Modern Lebanese culture (and I am trying not to generalize here, because my friends are not like this) is incredibly materialistic. People may not be able to buy food in some cases but have a brand new Mercedes or BMW, Gucci clothing, or a Rolex watch.

In the United States much business and politics is preformed through connections people have but it is generally frowned upon to openly gloat about how one uses and makes connections. Here it is quite different and the word that is used is Wasta. I was talking to two people who go to LAU and one was trying to get her best friend to go out with a teachers assistant who proctors her class---why you may ask? Not so she could be a good friend, no, she wanted a good grade in class! In Lebanon even socially, the ends justify the means.

Trouble In The South

Yesterday, as I finished up my orientation period, I called up my friend. We all had been planning on going out for dinner. As I was on the phone with her there was a period of silence only to be interrupted by the radio. Once I heard the silence and the radio announcer say "Filisteeni" (Palestinian in Arabic) I figured there must have been a problem, and I turned out to be right.

In southern Lebanon, near the Maronite town of Marjayoun, a blast was heard. This area is usually under Hizbollah control, but after the 2006 war the UN and Lebanese Army moved in to secure the area. The explosion was the result of a mine detonated by a cellular phone as the UN convoy passed. An Armored Personel Carrier (APC) was burned and 6 UN peacekeepers (2 Spaniards and 4 Colombians) were killed. Following the news it was clear that my Lebanese friends were quite shaken up. I spoke to one of the LAU staff and she was quite adimant that the Palestinians were the worst group of people in the Middle East and should just be kicked out. I must have heard 4 people in Lebanon, all of different sectarian groups (one Kurd, one Christian, and two Sunnis) say things along the same line.

At first I heard reports that the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade (a loosely organized Fatah affiliate terrorist group/militia) were the ones to set off the bomb, but apparently that wasn't true: gotta love the Lebanese rumor mill. Later authorities blamed Fatah al Islam and/or one of its surrigate Sunni Islamist allies. The Spanish Defense Minister was quoted by the Baltimore Sun saying, "Without a doubt, we are dealing with a premeditated attack."

It goes without saying that this recent attack has really frightened many Lebanese. I went out later with my Lebanese friends and they seemed to be a bit on edge, this is the farthest south Fatah al Islam has attacked and it partially shows that eventhough the government declared victory against them, Fatah al Islam can still strike with impunity.

This attack also was a clear and blatant attempt to scare off international observers/peacekeepers. Lebanon has a track record for being a country that has sent peacekeepers packing to go home. Fatah al Islam may be following the example of the Shi'ite Hizbollah, who, in 1982, bombed the US Marine barracks and a contingent of French paratroopers. The attack ended up killing 241 and 58, respectively. Soon thereafter France and the US packed their things and went back home. The situation following their retreat resulted in more anarchy and ruin for Lebanon; without a coercive force to pay attention to petty sectarian games, Lebanese ran amuck and killing eachother was back in vouge. So, Fatah al Islam also wants foriegners to go, once they leave then the terrorists can go on a violence splurge. This merely plays into Damascus's formula to control Lebanon. If their formula was a recipe it would be written as such:

Step 1: create a problem and in the process knock off as many adversaries as possible.
Anarchy (much of it helped along by Syria) was the same excuse they used in 1976 to intervene in Lebanon and subsequently occupy the country.

Step 2: Maintain plausible deniability. Remember, if they think you are behind an attack but can't put their finger on the fact that Syria planned it, then you are ok.

Step 3: As Lebanon slides into anarchy act like a savior. Tell the international community that those "silly Lebanese" can't control their own affairs, so Syria will do it for them.

Step 4: Try to stay in Lebanon and suck it of all its wealth for more time to come.

Footage of the explosion on Lebanese TV (to be more specific NBN-Amal's/Nabbeih Berri's network):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJXdMvS4J3M

Dinner & Arak With Friends

Yesterday was my first full day in Lebanon. I slept about 3 hours in total, but had many adventures and met many interesting people. My first adventure was going outside of the LAU campus to get some coffee, water, sodas and some other assorted junk food. Afterwards a fellow student and myself took a stroll down to the Raouché (Pigeon Rocks). They are a spectacular formation of stone jutting out of the Mediterreanean, the water surrounding them is a mixture of teal, green, light blue, and a medium shade of blue I can only describe as "Azure Mediterreanean."

The stroll down to the Raouché was quite an interesting one. The school I am attending is in the heart of Quoritem, the bastion of Rafiq Hariri and his Future Movement (a March 14th associated political party and heavily anti-Syrian). As such, there is heavy security by both the army and police. On almost every major intersection one can find an M113 Armored Personel Carrier with a .50 caliber machine gun mounted atop its metal hull. To get to the Raouché you have to pass the Saudi embassy, which is a massive building loaded with private security and a battalion of soldiers outside. Because I am a free wheeling American I decided I would take some pictures of the APCs dotting the streets---BAD idea. I got yelled at repeadedly by the soldiers, although it seems if I just play the "dumb American" card I won't get my camera smashed.

Also, during the day, I stopped and found some nice little coffee shops, and had some of the best iced coffee in a place across from the school. Around 11 in the morning I gave a close Lebanese friend a call. She invited me over to her home for a dinner complete with the Lebanese specialty drink known as Arak (also spelled 3arak--the 3 is an ain in Arabic) . Arak is made of anise and is quite sweet, almost like drinking an incredibly sweet tequila without so much alchoholic bite.

After speaking with my friend she informed me that her boyfriend (who was playing soccer at the time) was going to pick me up around 9:30PM. As 9:30 passed I called her up again and she told me he would be there to pick me up around 10PM. I had little to do, so I sat in the guard house and talked with the guards. The guards told me that rent (per month) was around $700 a month, they earned around $1.30 an hour and they couldn't get over the fact that America had a minimum wage around $5.75-$7.00. I tried out my rudimentary Arabic/Lebanese with the guards and they seemed to get a kick out of it, teaching me a few new words and pronounciation. As 10 o'clock rolled around my friend's boyfriend pulled up with another person I am friendly with and we headed off to Rabieh.

Rabieh and Christian Beirut (and its suburbs) seem a lot more organized and clean as compared to the Muslim sections. Of course both Muslim and Christian Beirut have much alore, but that difference definately sets them apart. On the drive down to Rabieh we passed downtown Beirut. I was told that ever since Hizbollah started protesting the current government they were subsidizing poor Shia (giving them $3 a day) to squat in Martyr's Square. There is a joke that is going around (some of it is true according to photos I've seen) that these Hizbollah members brought their shishas (water pipes) and TVs with them---Now Martyr's Square is their new home. I was also told that to get down to Martyr's Square (which stradles the old Green Line seperating Christian and Muslim Beirut) one must go through, not one of the numerous Lebanese Army checkpoints, but a Hizbollah checkpoint. Yes, Hizbollah has people who "guard" their encampment in downtown Beirut, and they (not the government) allow people in and out.

As we entered Rabieh we pulled up to a nice looking apartment building. My friend had a beautiful home with a wonderful family. Politics was the talk of the night, and of course I felt as if I had center stage (its not everyday some random American walks through your door and wants to talk about inter-Christian/Sunni-Shi'ite politics). I had a wonderful meal prepared for me complete with native bread, salad, arak, and pleasantly spiced chicken just to name a few things served. After the meal we all sat down and watched the television, my friend's sister had an international phone so I gave my mother a quick call. I must say after a great dinner there are few things more amusing than to have Seinfeld with Arabic subtitles.

For some time I had been talking about trying to get as much political paraphenalia out of Lebanon as possible. My friend went through a huge poster collection and gave me a Lebanese flag, a Kataeb party flag (Kataeb is also known as the Phalange party, and are right wing, anti-Syrian). As I was driven home my hosts took me to the Bachir Gemayel memorial in Achrafieh. Bachir Gemayel, a hero to many Lebanese Christians, was the son of Kataeb founder Pierre Gemayel, founder and leader of the Lebanese Front and later Lebanese Forces, and was president elect of Lebanon in 1982 before an SSNP bomb killed him. I visited the very place he was murdered that night. Formerly it was an unspectacular apartment building, after the explosion flattened that building, it became a square with concrete floors, trees, and a memorial to Gemayel and those killed in the building. The square was mostly quiet, save for a few young men who jokingly wanted to cheer for George W. Bush because I was in the area. Large posters and a massive metal carving of Bachir Gemayel's figure adorned the building adjacent to the memorial and it reminded me of a modern day shrine. In Lebanon it seems that the whole city is one massive shrine to opposing/allied political leaders who were supported by their confessional group. Eventhough I have been here a day, you can tell what sectarian section of town you are in by the posters that are stuck to the walls: Rafiq Hariri for Sunni sections, Walid Jumblatt for the Druze, numerous Hizbollah "martyr posters" and pictures of Hassan Nasrallah for Shi'ite sections, and Bachir Gemayel and the recently assassinated Pierre Amin Gemayel for Christian areas.

All in all it was a very spectacular day/night filled with adventure and great conversation.