PR'bollah

While I have been in Lebanon, I have talked to numerous people. Many of them, Christians, Sunnis, and Shi'ites voice their support of Hizbollah. Talking to Hizbollah members and their supporters is a bit like playing high stakes poker. You need a good poker face and have to put up with the hand you are dealt. When I ask them about Hizbollah's connection to terrorism I get one of four answers:

1. "Its all American propaganda/Whenever America decides it doesn't like a group it calls it a terrorist group." (Its America's fault, as usual)

2. "They are resistance fighters, they never committed acts of terror." (Outright denial; Play the "Resistance Card")

3. "Has anyone from Hizbollah been nasty to you?" (Answering a question with a question. See, if they aren't mean to you, how in the hell could they bomb an embassy?!)

4. "They haven't killed any Lebanese." (Self Interest Card; This is factually incorrect considering they killed many in the Amal party during the war of the camps. When they bombed the US embassy in 1983 they killed 43 Lebanese. During the 1984 bombing of the US embassy they killed 20 Lebanese)

How is it Hizbollah can sway so many people into their sphere of thinking? It can't be ALL smoke an mirrors. They do legitimately (though massive Syrian and Iranian aid) provide social services for impoverished Shi'ites in the south,Bekka, and Beirut. They did have a hand in kicking out the Israelis from the south. Nonetheless, they still committed acts of terror (two bombings of the American Embassy in Beirut in '83 and '84; bombed the AMIA building in Buenos Aires; and kidnapped a number of Westerners), through instigating the war with Israel last summer they directly caused Lebanon's fledgling economy to collapse, and their armed presence causes an uproar amongst many other sectarian groups (namely the Sunnis, Christians and Druze).

The 2006 Israel-Lebanon War is another topic that solicits a number of responses:

1. "This was in response to Hizbollah members kidnapped by the Israelis." (Big Lie Technique; If you tell a lie enough people will believe it; just for the record Israel hadn't kidnapped any Hizbollah members before the war began. The operation to kidnap Israeli soldiers was originally called "Operation Free Samir Kuntar." Kuntar was a member of the PLF [Palestine Liberation Front] who murdered 4 people in Israel, including a 4 year old girl, with his rifle butt.)

2. "Hizbollah was trying to free Shebba Farms." (Occupation Card; Shebba Farms is a part of Syria that Israel has occupied since 1967, Syria has said its "given" the area to Lebanon. The UN stands behind Israel [a first] in saying the Israelis fully pulled out of Lebanon in 2000)

3. "All Hizbollah did was kidnap 2 soldiers, Israel killed 1200 Lebanese and destroyed the country; it was a disproportionate attack." (Turn the Aggressor Into the Victim; Who decides what is disproportionate (a very big moral-subjective)? If a terror group say [and I am speaking hypothetically here]...Attacked 2 buildings in NYC and one in Washington, DC is invading the country that supported them disproportionate?)

4. "Israel was planning to do this for a while" (Facts Taken Out of Context; Olmert admitted Israel had plans on the books in case Israelis were kidnapped in the north. Even so, if the US was attacked by China and we used one of our already made plans to strike back, does that mean America had been planning to attack China and was simply waiting for an excuse?)

Responses aside, the question remains how so many people can believe these things? Its a bit like believers in 9-11 conspiracies (and trust me there are plenty of those here), scientifically and factually, all of the theories have been disproved. When the facts are stacked up against people who believe these things, their response is to claim there is yet another conspiracy trying to hide the truth or alter reality. Here in Lebanon, Hizbollah has a number apparatuses to make sure those who believe in their web of conspiracies is believed:

1. Al Manar TV. Al Manar is Hizbollah's TV station here in Lebanon, it comes complete with Hizbollah propaganda videos, documentaries on how wonderful Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is, and anti-Semitic cartoons for the kids (like the cigarette industry, 'you gotta get 'em while their young').



2. Pop Stars. Many pop stars here in Lebanon (as in the US) love to jump onto a cause and support it all the way. Usually in the US, the cause isn't one involving armed Islamists (except for of course Janeane Garofalo) For example Julia Boutrous did a song based on a speech Nasrallah gave during the war:



Who needs Brittney Spears showing cleavage when you have steamy Jihadist action like this?

3. A Culture of Blame. Many Lebanese I have met subscribe to a culture of anti-self-responsibility. Nothing is ever their fault, it is always an outside actor. This all ties into the belief in crazy conspiracies to explain bad/good/odd things that happen.

4. That 'Ole Time Religion. Mix militancy with religion and you have a great "good vs. evil" fight. Satan is played by Israel/America ...[insert Western nation here]. God and his righteous forces is represented by the Davidesque (as in David and Goliath) Hizbollah. Its a real win-win situation using religion. If you militarily lose it can easily be written off as a punishment by God for failing to do something. If you win, it was divinely inspired, and shows how God is actually on your side. "If God is with us, who could be against us?"
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* In the US we have restaurants shaped like hot dogs, always fun to eat in a place that looks like what you're eating. In the photo above, Hizbollah constructed a roadside, Dome of the Rock. For Hizbollah its always good to drive by what you launch rockets for.

* I've heard conflicting reports that Julia Boutrous is a Communist, a member/supporter of the SSNP, and/or likes Michel Aoun. If anyone can give me the interview where she outlines her real political philosophy that would be great. For now I'll take down the "Michel Aoun supporter bit"

Long Road To The Bekka

The Beirut to Damascus highway is mired in history. As it name states it connects coastal Beirut to Damascus, and winds through multi-sectarian areas, Jabal Libnan (Mt. Lebanon), and the Bekka Valley. During the Lebanese War it was controlled by countless militias, bombed to submission, and rolled over by Syrian, Israeli, and Lebanese tanks.

We were passing Baabda, the home of Lebanon's pro-Syria president, Emile Lahoud. The Christian areas around Lahoud's compound obviously had no love for him, I couldn't find a single Lahoud poster in the area.

The bus started to gain altitude along the Beirut to Damascus highway, we left the Christian areas and headed into Druze territory. The Druze areas are nominally controlled by the PSP's (Progressive Socialist Party) Walid Jumblatt. This was apparent through a large number of Jumblatt posters and the trademark PSP symbol; a red background with a blue triangle, inside the triangle are a pick hammer and a staff. I didn't see many Druze (or Durssi as they are called in Lebanese) out as we passed through their villages, and in their areas the mood seemed quite relaxed.

The mountains were quite pretty, a golden brown and green color. Fruit trees lined the roads and cloud cover was heavy in a few areas, all in all it was a quiet ride. We finally made our way out of Jabal Libnan to a town just inside the Bekka Valley. The town was mixed, part Shi'ite Muslims part Christians (mostly Greek Orthodox). As a result there were few political posters up and the streets were empty. We stopped for lunch and I had a traditional Halloum (native white cheese, a bit like mozzarella) sandwich.

We continued to drive north through the Bekka. The flags along the road began to change to the distinctive green of Harakat Amal (the Amal Movement aka the Amal Party) and yellow of Hizbollah. The area was mostly Shi'ite, although there were many mixed towns. Posters of the smiling Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah looked upon traffic as we drove through villages and towns. Oddly enough we weren't on our way to see Hizbollah, but ironically to get to the world famous Ksara winery in the south-central Bekka Valley.

Ksara's premises stands out from the cinder block construction and power lines along the road. Leading up to the famous cave and winery complex there is a small terraced area for growing grapes. The bus pulled up to Ksara and we entered inside. Founded by Jesuit priests, the wine was originally used for religious purposes, and when the Vatican sold the property off in the 1970s a group of buyers came in and bought the vineyard and winery. The building was spottless, it probably hadn't seen tourists in 2 years. We were led into a damp, cool cave complex that housed barrels upon barrels of wine. Following the subterranean tour we were ushered up to a beautiful dinning room for a wine tasting. Ksara wine definitely isn't a Chateau La Mondotte Saint-Emilion 1996 (aka a $600 bottle of wine), but for $4 it was cheap, tasted good, and is great with tabouli.

Some Geography & Politics of the Bekka

To give you a better idea the Bekka is in Eastern Lebanon, opposite Syria. The valley is smack dab in between the "Eastern" and "Western" ranges of Mount Lebanon (in the West) and the anti-Lebanon Mountains (in the east). The area is known for its wineries, incredible produce, and almost complete control by Hizbollah. From the mountains the Bekka looks like a green swath cut through two huge chunks of dry earth.

There are two very important population centers in the Bekka. The first is Zahle. Zahle is the largest Catholic town in the Middle East, during the Lebanese War it gained fame amoungst Lebanese Christians for holding out against a Syrian seige. The second city is Baalbek. Baalbek is situated to the north of Zahle and is primarily a Shi'ite town with a small Orthodox Christian minority. Politically Zahle is a stronghold of the Christian Lebanese Forces, however, most of the Bekka, including Baalbek is a base for Hizbollah and Amal.

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*More Posts later on my trip to Baalbek, Bcharre, Batroun, and Douma

Another Example of The Shia-Sunni (aka Iran vs. Sunni Arab Regimes) Divide Is In Full Swing

Today President Mubarak of Egypt announced he would be holding a meeting involving Israeli, Jordanian, and Fatah to discuss Hamastan (aka Hamas occupied Gaza) and its implications. While many see this as primarily an anti-Hamas/a move to bolster Fatah meeting one must acknowledge that the meeting has many anti-Iran and anti-Islamist overtones.

• Hamas is armed/supplied by Iran
  
• Hamas is the militant wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Palestinian Territories. This is the same Muslim Brotherhood that was sweeping Egypt's 2005 elections and considered a political arch enemy by Mubarak in Cairo.
• According to The Australian, "Egypt's Foreign Minister accused Iran of having encouraged Hamas to seize Gaza in factional fighting with the secular Fatah movement in which more than 110 people were killed last week."
  
• Jordan has an increasingly hostile stance towards Iran, especially following the Summer of 2006 war between Iranian backed Hizbollah and Israel. In addition Jordan borders an increasingly destabilized and Shia controlled Iraq. In the Sunni Arab states Iran is seen as the prime supplier of Iraq's Shia militias.
• Israel sees Iran, its ally Syria, and Hizbollah as its greatest regional threats. Hamas, a client of Iran getting hold of Gaza is seen as a terrible thorn in Israel's side.
• Following the Summer of 2006 Israel-Hizbollah war Israel fears a new war could break out on numerous fronts, with a new Gaza-Israel conflict in the south and a Lebanon-Israel war in the north.
  

MIGs For Damascus & Tehran

Russia announced recently that it plans to sell Syria a revamped version of its MIG-31 fighter jet. The MIG-31 is the re-vamped version of the MIG-25 Foxbat, can reach speeds of Mach 2.83 and carries a wide variety of long range missiles. The type of MIG-31 that Russia is selling Damascus, the MIG-31E can as reported by GlobalSecurity.org:

"The MiG-31E provides facilities for vectoring up to three fighters, types MiG-21-93, MiG-23, MiG-25, MiG-29, Su-27 to ensure a covert attack. A group of four MiG-31E fighter-interceptors is capable of interchanging data in the automatic mode on presence of air targets in the zone up to 800 km wide."

Not only is Russia planning on selling a batch of MIG-31s, but it also wants to sell Syria the new MIG-29M/M2. This advanced multi-role fighter jet has brand new liquid crystal displays and a long range interception capability.

This sale raises a number of questions. Woodward and Bernstein were told to "follow the money," but Syria is so deep in debt it technically shouldn't have the money to pull off all of this new defensive procurement. The Russian newspaper Kommersant reported,

"Several questions are raised by the deal. First, where Syria got the money for such expensive weapons. In the winter of 2005, Russia wrote off 70 percent of Syria's foreign debt, which was $13.4 billion at the time. Under that agreement, Syria's debt to Russia was reduced to $3.6 billion. Russia renewed military-technical cooperation with Syrian at the same time. Information has arisen regularly since the beginning of 2005 that Syria is in negotiations with Russia for the purchase of new weapons."

I was really drawn to the Kommersant article mainly because of its title, "MiGs Will Defend Syria and Iran." Read that closely Syria and Iran. Now a cliche statement in the academic world, but widely ignored by many in the press, Syria and Iran are forming a strategic alliance based on their mutual hatred of the United States and Israel. Not only are their external enemies much the same, but their ruling groups (Alawites in Syria, Twelver Shia in Iran) are both Shia minority states in a sea of US allied Sunni Muslim countries (such as Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan. Syria itself has about a 70% Sunni majority).

Israel expressed concern about the sale. Nevertheless, as a casual, realistic observer, one can assume that Israel's intelligence and air capabilities could greatly counter any advance made by Syria. Historically Israel was gravely concerned in the 1970s when Syria received a large number of Soviet MIG-23 swing wing fighter jets, only to shoot large numbers of them down over Lebanon in 1982, without a single loss to Israel. If Syria even wanted to even the odds vis a vis Israel they would need to greatly upgrade training and tactics. I can only speculate that Syria will make the same errors as it has in the past regarding its air force; they will buy the most advanced Russian equipment yet neglect to really train its pilots.

Video of the MIG-31:



Video of the MIG-29: