Some Breaking News For July 16

Bomb hits U.N. vehicle in Lebanon
By HUSSEIN DAKROUB ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER
BEIRUT, Lebanon AP) - A bomb hit a U.N. peacekeeping force patrol on a coastal road in southern Lebanon on Monday, a Lebanese security official said, the second such attack targeting the force in less than a month.
The bomb struck the convoy as it was driving through the village of Qassimiyeh near the southern port city of Tyre, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
There were no immediate reports of casualties and the nationalities of the soldiers traveling in the convoy were not released.
In the first attack targeting the U.N. force known as UNIFIL, six peacekeepers belonging to the Spanish contingent were killed June 24 when a bomb struck their armored personnel carrier in southern Lebanon.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1107AP_Lebanon_UNIFIL.html
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Lebanon army advances into camp
By Nazih Siddiq
NAHR AL-BARED, Lebanon (Reuters) - Lebanese troops advanced for the first time on Sunday into a Palestinian refugee camp as they battled al Qaeda-inspired militants, and two soldiers were killed raising the military death toll to 100.
Lebanese and army flags were seen flying over two or three devastated buildings inside Nahr al-Bared as the battle for the north Lebanon camp between the military and Fatah al-Islam fighters entered its ninth week.
The advance marked a major step for the army in the battle to crush the militants and a rare venture by troops into a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon in four decades.
A 1969 Arab agreement banned Lebanese security forces from entering Palestinian camps. The agreement was annulled by the Lebanese parliament in the mid-1980s but the accord effectively stayed in place.
Security sources said at least two soldiers died in the latest fighting, bringing the military death toll to 100. A total of 221 people, including at least 80 militants, have been killed since the fighting began on May 20, making it Lebanon's worst internal violence since the 1975-1990 civil war.
The toll includes those killed in limited clashes in other areas of the country.
Fatah al-Islam is made up of a few hundred mainly Arab fighters who admit admiration of al Qaeda but claim no organizational links. Some of the fighters have fought in or were on their way to fight in Iraq.

ALIVE FROM UNDER THE RUBBLE
Soldiers exchanged automatic rifle fire and grenades with militants at building and alleyways leading to the centre of Nahr al-Bared while army artillery and tanks pounded other areas. Fatah al-Islam fighters hit back, firing a dozen Katyusha rockets at surrounding Lebanese villages.
The sources said troops pulled out alive two commandos who had been buried under the rubble of a booby-trapped building that blew up on Saturday.

The military has increased its bombardment of the besieged camp since Thursday, anxious not to get sucked into a war of attrition with the well-trained and well-armed militants.

But the militants have responded fiercely, killing 13 soldiers and wounding 53.

In south Lebanon, unknown gunmen shot dead Dharrar Rifai at Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp. Rifai was a member of the now defunct Jund al-Sham group.

Jund al-Sham was dissolved last month after clashes with the Lebanese army. Two groups dominate Ain al-Hilweh, Lebanon's largest Palestinian refugee camp: Fatah and al Qaeda-linked Usbat al-Ansar.
The violence has further undermined stability in Lebanon, where a paralyzing 8-month political crisis has been compounded by bombings in and around Beirut, the assassination of an anti-Syrian legislator and a fatal attack on U.N. peacekeepers.

Lebanese politicians are meeting in France in an effort to find ways to resume dialogue after months of political stalemate.
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL1434460820070715?pageNumber=2

Syrian Workers, Mexican Illegals

As I mentioned before, July 15th is right down the road. To expand upon my blurb before, Syria is planning on pulling out its workers in Lebanon on the 15th. This has been a huge cause of concern by analysts and by common Lebanese who feel the pullout of Syrian workers is just the prelude to a new terror-offensive led by Damascus. This May, Syria, acting in consort with the Islamist terror group, Fatah al Islam (an Islamist off-shoot to Fatah Intifadah, A Syrian created and financed Palestinian group), launched assassinations, bombings, and other attacks against anti-Syrian politicians (namely Walid Eido), locals that are heavily anti-Syrian (namely Achrafieh, Aley, and Korietem), and the Lebanese Army. Recently the head of the UN probe into Rafik Hariri's murder has stated that the recent combat operations involving Fatah al Islam and the Lebanese Army, are hindering their investigations; how convenient for Damascus.

With Syrian workers being pulled out, the Lebanese economy may suffer. The Syrians have firmly implanted themselves into the economy of Lebanon. Its interesting to note that Syrian workers are in many ways like illegal Mexican immigrants in the United States, but there are also many differences.

1. They are coming to seek higher wages, an American's average wage (this includes middle and upper class workers) is around $42,000; a Mexican's average wage (also includes their middle and upper classes) is around $3,300. Syria's average wage is around $1,200 a year, compared to Lebanon's 9,600 a year.


2. During Lebanon's occupation by Syria, Syrian workers were given free range to work in Lebanon, meanwhile, if a Lebanese wanted to work in Syria it was not allowed. On the other hand illegal immigrants to Mexico can face stiff jail sentences.


3. Syria considers Lebanon to be an integral part of Syria, just as many Mexicans consider the southwestern United States to be part of Mexico. Former Mexican President Zedillo said,“I have proudly affirmed that the Mexican nation extends beyond the territory enclosed by its borders.” Syrian president Bashar Asad said, "We, the Syrians would continue to give to Lebanon because you are the grandchildren of the Syrian Arabs."


4. Experts such as Habib C. Malik have called Syria's workers in Lebanon, "nothing short of a movement toward Syrian colonization of Lebanon." In the City Journal, Manhattan Institute contributor, Heather Mac Donald wrote,“Mexico’s five-year development plan in 1995 announced that the ‘Mexican nation extends its border into the United States. The government would strengthen solidarity programs with the Mexican communities abroad by emphasizing their Mexican roots, and supporting literacy programs in Spanish and teaching of the history, values and traditions of Mexico to those Mexicans living in the United States. We are betting the Mexican population in the U.S. will think Mexico first.’”


5. About 200,000 Syrian workers are in Lebanon out of a population of 3.9 million; there are anywhere from 7-12 million illegal Mexican migrants out of a population of 200 million.


6. Syria uses car bombs and political coercion to control Lebanon. Fortunately for Washington, Mexico hasn't started using terrorism.

I wanted to see what supporters of Syria's staunch ally, Hizbollah felt about the Syrians leaving. I asked one university student, and Hizbollah supporter from south Lebanon, "what will happen on the 15th?" Her answer, "problems." It seems that even erstwhile supporters of a Syrian proxy know that Syria will cook up problems for Lebanon.

"You see Phillip," she said, "I am with Syria because they help Hizbollah to free my village, I wouldn't be able to see my parents, but these Syrian workers take people's jobs, they make it so we make less money." Of course, in typical Lebanese fashion, self-interest comes first, but it also shows that in Lebanon many things are "grey."

The Lebanese Army is planning on crushing the Fatah al Islam stronghold of Nahr al Bared. Fatah al Islam, most recently, launched a rocket attack against Tripoli. Syria, after inspiring a set of numerous explosions and disturbances throughout Lebanon, is pulling out its nationals. Also the Hariri Tribunal is supposed to name a number of suspects in the investigation, this could include Syrian officials. Last, but not least, Iran has agreed inspections of their heavy water plants and atomic reactors. Things in Lebanon will only heat up.
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*Picture above is of the ABC Achrafieh bomb site, interesting to note that the people cleaning up the site were Syrian construction workers.
*All Pictures on here are taken by me, and my property, all rights reserved.

Is War On The Horizon of The Eastern Mediterranean?

I was browsing Michael Totten's website and came upon the article, Feels Like 1967, Redux. To paraphrase, Totten explained how Israel is assuming that at some time this summer an attack will come from Iran, Syria, Lebanon (through Hizbollah), or even al Qaida.

According to WorldTribune.com, "Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin told the Cabinet that the Jewish state faces five adversaries in what could result in an imminent confrontation. Yadlin cited Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and Al Qaida.'Each of these adversaries is capable of sparking a war in the summer,' Yadlin was quoted as saying."

I have serious doubts that al Qaeda could really take Israel on via Lebanon, Gaza, or the W. Bank. They usually operate in Arab/Muslim countries and strike targets within them. One of their few anti-Israel strikes was in Mombassa, Kenya, while this caused great alarm it didn't spark a war.

Hamas is a different ball of wax from al Qaeda. First, Hamas is busy solidifying its control of Gaza and that probably won't be complete, atleast, for a few more weeks. This doesn't mean that they won't try to launch rockets or hit and run attacks against Israel, but I think Olmert is quite wary of sending the army into Gaza so soon after the debacle he managed in Lebanon. One must also consider that Hamas does get some of its orders from Damascus, so if Asad decides he would much rather have a low-intensity war on Israel's southern border he may choose to do that.

As a casual observer who is currently residing in Lebanon, A.K.A the country that is home to Hizbollah and location of the war last July; it is my fundimental belief that if there is a new war against the Jewish state it will be along the same lines as the war last year.

Why Will A War Come?

• Lebanese presidential elections are on September 25th, Syria has been at work this spring and summer knocking off anti-Syrian MPs (namely Walid Eido). Emile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president of Lebanon is going to have to step down. The last thing Damascus wants is an anti-Syrian Maronite (namely Amine Gemayel or another Maronite from the anti-Syrian Rafik Hariri Martyr List). If a crisis can be made by Damascus, Beirut may have to delay elections, or if Damascus is feeling adventurous it may just contiune knocking off more politicians.

• The current Lebanese Army vs. Fatah al Islam war started around the same time the UN was going to start its tribunal for Rafik Hariri. Syria has a vested interest in keeping Lebanon destabilized at this time. If there is war, how can the UN carry out any investigation?

• Iran is facing internal strife and external pressure. Internally there were numerous riots due to gas rationing. According to the New York Times,
" Unrest spread in Tehran on Thursday, the second day of gasoline rationing in oil-rich Iran, with drivers lining up for miles, gas stations being set on fire and state-run banks and business centers coming under attack.

Dozens were arrested, and the Tehran police chief, Ismail Ahmadi Moghaddam, complained to reporters that the police had been caught unaware by the decision to ration fuel.

The anger posed a keen threat to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was elected two years ago on a platform of bringing income from oil to the nation’s households. Instead, even though Iran is one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, it has been forced to import about 40 percent of its gasoline at an annual cost of $5 billion to make up for shortfalls in its archaic refining industry."

In the Middle East distraction from domestic problems can be solved by a foreign adventure. Due to the success of Hizbollah's last war against Israel, they may feel emboldened to launch another one. If Hizbollah succeeds again then the Iranian leadership could find its way out of another problematic internal situation.

Add that the possibility of the international community pushing for tighter sanctions on the Iranians. Currently the international community is offering Iran a "nuclear time out" I.E. Iran should hold off temporarily from Uranium enrichment. The Iranians could very well ignore the initiative and continue on their current course of enrichment.

• Arms are flowing into Lebanon faster than water out of a faucet. Syria and Iran have been pumping Hizbollah with new arms. The UN has been complaining that Iran and Syria have not been respecting an arms ban into Lebanon.What does someone do when they get new toys? Do I really need to answer this one? All right: THEY USE THEM!

When I talked with the mother of a friend here she was telling me about a new article (I believe it was in An Nahar) that discussed how Hizbollah was ready for a new war against Israel. Many of the Christians here feel a war will break out at any time. Hizbollah has become excedingly powerful and to some extent it has left the Lebanese Christian population to feel immasculated. To quote my friend's mother, "Hizbollah wants to Islamicize Lebanon and have war all the time."

However there is an opposing view. Some on the Lebanese street are convinced no war will come and its simply sabre rattling by both sides. As I am writing this, I asked a Druze girl sitting at the computer next to me whether she thought a war would occur this summer, her answer, "they have been saying that for the past 5 to 6 months, I doubt there will be war." Israel has also been very cautious in regards to its northern border. Following a number of recent Katusyia rocket hits, Jerusalem decided to just ask UNIFIL to do a better job. Granted many people said this attack was from a rouge Palestian group trying to scuttle the cease fire in the south, but Israel did attack the PLO in 1982 after Shlomo Argov was attacked by the Abu Nidal Organization (Abu Nidal and the PLO were both Palestinian groups, but, they hated eachother, Abu Nidal was far more extremely violent and considered the PLO to be a sell out group).
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I'll add a bit more as the time comes. More interviews/travel-logs to come, look out for:

• A trip to Dahiya with a publisher friend (she's great, Ms. Wasta). Dahiya is the HQ of Hizbollah conjoined with a Palestinian refugee camp, and is located in S. Beirut. Currently Dahiya is a pile of rubble due to successive Israeli airstrikes. This should be interesting...

• A trip to Harrisa (حريصا) & Jbeil/Byblos (جبيل). I am going there on Saturday---So look forward to a late night blog post.

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This post is in serious need of additions and editing, so treat the current post as a proto-version of whatever is going to come.

Trouble In The South

Yesterday, as I finished up my orientation period, I called up my friend. We all had been planning on going out for dinner. As I was on the phone with her there was a period of silence only to be interrupted by the radio. Once I heard the silence and the radio announcer say "Filisteeni" (Palestinian in Arabic) I figured there must have been a problem, and I turned out to be right.

In southern Lebanon, near the Maronite town of Marjayoun, a blast was heard. This area is usually under Hizbollah control, but after the 2006 war the UN and Lebanese Army moved in to secure the area. The explosion was the result of a mine detonated by a cellular phone as the UN convoy passed. An Armored Personel Carrier (APC) was burned and 6 UN peacekeepers (2 Spaniards and 4 Colombians) were killed. Following the news it was clear that my Lebanese friends were quite shaken up. I spoke to one of the LAU staff and she was quite adimant that the Palestinians were the worst group of people in the Middle East and should just be kicked out. I must have heard 4 people in Lebanon, all of different sectarian groups (one Kurd, one Christian, and two Sunnis) say things along the same line.

At first I heard reports that the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade (a loosely organized Fatah affiliate terrorist group/militia) were the ones to set off the bomb, but apparently that wasn't true: gotta love the Lebanese rumor mill. Later authorities blamed Fatah al Islam and/or one of its surrigate Sunni Islamist allies. The Spanish Defense Minister was quoted by the Baltimore Sun saying, "Without a doubt, we are dealing with a premeditated attack."

It goes without saying that this recent attack has really frightened many Lebanese. I went out later with my Lebanese friends and they seemed to be a bit on edge, this is the farthest south Fatah al Islam has attacked and it partially shows that eventhough the government declared victory against them, Fatah al Islam can still strike with impunity.

This attack also was a clear and blatant attempt to scare off international observers/peacekeepers. Lebanon has a track record for being a country that has sent peacekeepers packing to go home. Fatah al Islam may be following the example of the Shi'ite Hizbollah, who, in 1982, bombed the US Marine barracks and a contingent of French paratroopers. The attack ended up killing 241 and 58, respectively. Soon thereafter France and the US packed their things and went back home. The situation following their retreat resulted in more anarchy and ruin for Lebanon; without a coercive force to pay attention to petty sectarian games, Lebanese ran amuck and killing eachother was back in vouge. So, Fatah al Islam also wants foriegners to go, once they leave then the terrorists can go on a violence splurge. This merely plays into Damascus's formula to control Lebanon. If their formula was a recipe it would be written as such:

Step 1: create a problem and in the process knock off as many adversaries as possible.
Anarchy (much of it helped along by Syria) was the same excuse they used in 1976 to intervene in Lebanon and subsequently occupy the country.

Step 2: Maintain plausible deniability. Remember, if they think you are behind an attack but can't put their finger on the fact that Syria planned it, then you are ok.

Step 3: As Lebanon slides into anarchy act like a savior. Tell the international community that those "silly Lebanese" can't control their own affairs, so Syria will do it for them.

Step 4: Try to stay in Lebanon and suck it of all its wealth for more time to come.

Footage of the explosion on Lebanese TV (to be more specific NBN-Amal's/Nabbeih Berri's network):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJXdMvS4J3M

Fatah al Islam Defeated?

Reports from Lebanon are claiming that Fatah al Islam has been defeated. Lebanese Defense Minister is quoted in the linked story as saying, "the military operation is over. The Lebanese army has crushed those terrorists." This may be true considering there haven't been any recent car bombings, only time can tell. I will try to post my findings on here.

Fatah al Islam: Arabic For Another Syrian Front

By. Phillip

There has been a recently repeated theory that claims that Fatah al Islam is somehow an organization with close ties to al Qaeda. Granted, Fatah al Islam does show Islamist tendencies, such as having a leader, Sheik Shaker Al-'Absi, a man sentenced in absentia to death by Jordanian authorities for the murder of an American diplomat. However, there is overwhelming evidence linking Fatah al Islam to Syria.

Journalist, Nicholas Blanford reported in Time that, “Fatah al-Islam, the group battling the army, has dominated much of the news in Lebanon since it first declared its existence late last year, splitting from Fatah al-Intifadeh, a pro-Syrian Palestinian faction that is headquartered in Damascus.” One must remember that Fatah Intifada was created by the Syrian regime as a Palestinian counter organization to Yasser Arafat and the PLO during the Lebanese Civil War. In addition Fatah Intifada is widely considered just another Syrian proxy (such as the PFLP-GC), and has its headquarters in Damascus.

Recently, in May of 2006 Fatah Initifada was used to stir the Lebanese pot when they attacked the Lebanese army. It isn’t just coincidence that both Fatah Intifadah and Fatah al Islam both have a knack for starting problems by attacking the Lebanese Army. When the Lebanese Army encircled Fatah Intifada last May it was in response to provocative action taken by the group. After Fatah al Islam’s bank robbery there were subsequent raids by the Lebanese Police and Army. Fatah al Islam retaliated by attacking Lebanese Army posts and killing 27 soldiers.

Other Connections:
• Not so ironically, Fatah al Islam launched its attacks on the Lebanese Army during a time when the UN was just beginning a tribunal on the assassination of Rafik Hariri. Any tribunal was expected to call Syrian officials, up to and including President Bashar Asad.
• Fatah al Islam has not attacked any pro-Syrian groups. Many Islamists, especially the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood regard the ruling Alawite minority as apostates. If Fatah al Islam was a true Islamist group, would it not seek to attack them (Syria and many of its proxies are secular) too?

The current spate of assassinations and bombings is obviously due to Asad’s hand. The bombings that occurred in Aley, Achrafieh, and Verdun were more than just operations designed to sew terror in the hearts of average Lebanese, just remember this:

• Aley: in the Druze heartland, not to mention a location where there is a strong PSP
(MP Walid Jumblatt’s party) influence. While Jumblatt has been known to engage in unabashed realpolitik, even before the Cedar Revolution of 2005 he’s been a staunch critic of Syria and a leading member in the March 14th Alliance.
• Verdun: known for being quite luxurious part of Beirut. While being a mixed neighborhood (Nabi Berri owned a residence near to where the Verdun blast occurred) is generally considered to be within another anti-Syrian party’s sphere of influence, the Sunni, Future Movement. This was a message aimed at shaking Saad Hariri, leader of the Future movement and son of slain former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri.
• Achrafieh: A Christian part of Beirut, the bombing of a shopping mall in this area had much to do with threatening the Christian base of anti-Syrian coalition. This more specifically targeted parties such as Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party.
• Most of the explosions were small, often in areas frequented by the public (such as shopping malls) but often in off hours. One of the few bombings to have a large death toll was the Walid Eido assassination, which killed 10 others in the process.

The Syrian Mukhabarat is sending a very blunt message to the anti-Syrian parties: Keep defying Damascus and you will get more bombs. This was the same message sent by Syria following the anti-Syrian protests of March 14th. Syria’s bombing campaign included targets (as the bombing campaign has recently) such as anti-Syrian journalists, politicians, and areas where anti-Syrian confessional groups (ie. Druze, Christians, and pro-Hariri Sunnis) reside:

• Assassinations of fervently anti-Syrian politician Gebran Tueni and journalist Samir Kassir. This also includes the assassination attempt on LBC journalist (and candidate for a Maronite seat in the Baabda-Aley district) May Chidac.
• The bombings used small amounts of explosive (ranging from 1- around 50lbs).
• The same style of targets as the current bombing spate were hit, such as a shopping mall in the Christian neighborhood of Zalka.

Walid Eido and Destroying the Majority

After the June 14th murder Walid Eido, a Lebanese friend mentioned to me, “just four more to go.” I asked him what he meant by that and the answer I received was quite startling (I am paraphrasing here), “The Syrians just need to kill 4 more parliamentarians with March 14th, then they [March 14th and other anti-Syrians] won’t have the majority.” Whittling down on the anti-Syrian political majority is most definitely a goal of Damascus. The number of anti-Syrians has now gone down to 68 from 72, if the number goes down to 64 then pro-Syrian elements in Lebanon will undercut the Siniora’s government. Lebanon’s current president, pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud has his term is set to expire on September 25, 2007. Because Lebanon’s president is elected via the parliament, a pro-Syrian majority is a goal desired by Damascus in order to control Lebanon’s presidency.

Useful links on mentioned topics:
BBC Fatah al Islam
ABC: What is Fatah al Islam?

© Copyright http://arzeljabal.blogspot.com/; June 16, 2007