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Friday, June 29, 2007

Is War On The Horizon of The Eastern Mediterranean?

I was browsing Michael Totten's website and came upon the article, Feels Like 1967, Redux. To paraphrase, Totten explained how Israel is assuming that at some time this summer an attack will come from Iran, Syria, Lebanon (through Hizbollah), or even al Qaida.

According to WorldTribune.com, "Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin told the Cabinet that the Jewish state faces five adversaries in what could result in an imminent confrontation. Yadlin cited Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and Al Qaida.'Each of these adversaries is capable of sparking a war in the summer,' Yadlin was quoted as saying."

I have serious doubts that al Qaeda could really take Israel on via Lebanon, Gaza, or the W. Bank. They usually operate in Arab/Muslim countries and strike targets within them. One of their few anti-Israel strikes was in Mombassa, Kenya, while this caused great alarm it didn't spark a war.

Hamas is a different ball of wax from al Qaeda. First, Hamas is busy solidifying its control of Gaza and that probably won't be complete, atleast, for a few more weeks. This doesn't mean that they won't try to launch rockets or hit and run attacks against Israel, but I think Olmert is quite wary of sending the army into Gaza so soon after the debacle he managed in Lebanon. One must also consider that Hamas does get some of its orders from Damascus, so if Asad decides he would much rather have a low-intensity war on Israel's southern border he may choose to do that.

As a casual observer who is currently residing in Lebanon, A.K.A the country that is home to Hizbollah and location of the war last July; it is my fundimental belief that if there is a new war against the Jewish state it will be along the same lines as the war last year.

Why Will A War Come?

• Lebanese presidential elections are on September 25th, Syria has been at work this spring and summer knocking off anti-Syrian MPs (namely Walid Eido). Emile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president of Lebanon is going to have to step down. The last thing Damascus wants is an anti-Syrian Maronite (namely Amine Gemayel or another Maronite from the anti-Syrian Rafik Hariri Martyr List). If a crisis can be made by Damascus, Beirut may have to delay elections, or if Damascus is feeling adventurous it may just contiune knocking off more politicians.

• The current Lebanese Army vs. Fatah al Islam war started around the same time the UN was going to start its tribunal for Rafik Hariri. Syria has a vested interest in keeping Lebanon destabilized at this time. If there is war, how can the UN carry out any investigation?

• Iran is facing internal strife and external pressure. Internally there were numerous riots due to gas rationing. According to the New York Times,
" Unrest spread in Tehran on Thursday, the second day of gasoline rationing in oil-rich Iran, with drivers lining up for miles, gas stations being set on fire and state-run banks and business centers coming under attack.

Dozens were arrested, and the Tehran police chief, Ismail Ahmadi Moghaddam, complained to reporters that the police had been caught unaware by the decision to ration fuel.

The anger posed a keen threat to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was elected two years ago on a platform of bringing income from oil to the nation’s households. Instead, even though Iran is one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, it has been forced to import about 40 percent of its gasoline at an annual cost of $5 billion to make up for shortfalls in its archaic refining industry."


In the Middle East distraction from domestic problems can be solved by a foreign adventure. Due to the success of Hizbollah's last war against Israel, they may feel emboldened to launch another one. If Hizbollah succeeds again then the Iranian leadership could find its way out of another problematic internal situation.

Add that the possibility of the international community pushing for tighter sanctions on the Iranians. Currently the international community is offering Iran a "nuclear time out" I.E. Iran should hold off temporarily from Uranium enrichment. The Iranians could very well ignore the initiative and continue on their current course of enrichment.

• Arms are flowing into Lebanon faster than water out of a faucet. Syria and Iran have been pumping Hizbollah with new arms. The UN has been complaining that Iran and Syria have not been respecting an arms ban into Lebanon.What does someone do when they get new toys? Do I really need to answer this one? All right: THEY USE THEM!

When I talked with the mother of a friend here she was telling me about a new article (I believe it was in An Nahar) that discussed how Hizbollah was ready for a new war against Israel. Many of the Christians here feel a war will break out at any time. Hizbollah has become excedingly powerful and to some extent it has left the Lebanese Christian population to feel immasculated. To quote my friend's mother, "Hizbollah wants to Islamicize Lebanon and have war all the time."

However there is an opposing view. Some on the Lebanese street are convinced no war will come and its simply sabre rattling by both sides. As I am writing this, I asked a Druze girl sitting at the computer next to me whether she thought a war would occur this summer, her answer, "they have been saying that for the past 5 to 6 months, I doubt there will be war." Israel has also been very cautious in regards to its northern border. Following a number of recent Katusyia rocket hits, Jerusalem decided to just ask UNIFIL to do a better job. Granted many people said this attack was from a rouge Palestian group trying to scuttle the cease fire in the south, but Israel did attack the PLO in 1982 after Shlomo Argov was attacked by the Abu Nidal Organization (Abu Nidal and the PLO were both Palestinian groups, but, they hated eachother, Abu Nidal was far more extremely violent and considered the PLO to be a sell out group).
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I'll add a bit more as the time comes. More interviews/travel-logs to come, look out for:

• A trip to Dahiya with a publisher friend (she's great, Ms. Wasta). Dahiya is the HQ of Hizbollah conjoined with a Palestinian refugee camp, and is located in S. Beirut. Currently Dahiya is a pile of rubble due to successive Israeli airstrikes. This should be interesting...

• A trip to Harrisa (حريصا) & Jbeil/Byblos (جبيل). I am going there on Saturday---So look forward to a late night blog post.

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This post is in serious need of additions and editing, so treat the current post as a proto-version of whatever is going to come.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Keep up the good work.