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Monday, June 25, 2007

Trouble In The South

Yesterday, as I finished up my orientation period, I called up my friend. We all had been planning on going out for dinner. As I was on the phone with her there was a period of silence only to be interrupted by the radio. Once I heard the silence and the radio announcer say "Filisteeni" (Palestinian in Arabic) I figured there must have been a problem, and I turned out to be right.

In southern Lebanon, near the Maronite town of Marjayoun, a blast was heard. This area is usually under Hizbollah control, but after the 2006 war the UN and Lebanese Army moved in to secure the area. The explosion was the result of a mine detonated by a cellular phone as the UN convoy passed. An Armored Personel Carrier (APC) was burned and 6 UN peacekeepers (2 Spaniards and 4 Colombians) were killed. Following the news it was clear that my Lebanese friends were quite shaken up. I spoke to one of the LAU staff and she was quite adimant that the Palestinians were the worst group of people in the Middle East and should just be kicked out. I must have heard 4 people in Lebanon, all of different sectarian groups (one Kurd, one Christian, and two Sunnis) say things along the same line.

At first I heard reports that the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade (a loosely organized Fatah affiliate terrorist group/militia) were the ones to set off the bomb, but apparently that wasn't true: gotta love the Lebanese rumor mill. Later authorities blamed Fatah al Islam and/or one of its surrigate Sunni Islamist allies. The Spanish Defense Minister was quoted by the Baltimore Sun saying, "Without a doubt, we are dealing with a premeditated attack."

It goes without saying that this recent attack has really frightened many Lebanese. I went out later with my Lebanese friends and they seemed to be a bit on edge, this is the farthest south Fatah al Islam has attacked and it partially shows that eventhough the government declared victory against them, Fatah al Islam can still strike with impunity.

This attack also was a clear and blatant attempt to scare off international observers/peacekeepers. Lebanon has a track record for being a country that has sent peacekeepers packing to go home. Fatah al Islam may be following the example of the Shi'ite Hizbollah, who, in 1982, bombed the US Marine barracks and a contingent of French paratroopers. The attack ended up killing 241 and 58, respectively. Soon thereafter France and the US packed their things and went back home. The situation following their retreat resulted in more anarchy and ruin for Lebanon; without a coercive force to pay attention to petty sectarian games, Lebanese ran amuck and killing eachother was back in vouge. So, Fatah al Islam also wants foriegners to go, once they leave then the terrorists can go on a violence splurge. This merely plays into Damascus's formula to control Lebanon. If their formula was a recipe it would be written as such:

Step 1: create a problem and in the process knock off as many adversaries as possible.
Anarchy (much of it helped along by Syria) was the same excuse they used in 1976 to intervene in Lebanon and subsequently occupy the country.

Step 2: Maintain plausible deniability. Remember, if they think you are behind an attack but can't put their finger on the fact that Syria planned it, then you are ok.

Step 3: As Lebanon slides into anarchy act like a savior. Tell the international community that those "silly Lebanese" can't control their own affairs, so Syria will do it for them.

Step 4: Try to stay in Lebanon and suck it of all its wealth for more time to come.

Footage of the explosion on Lebanese TV (to be more specific NBN-Amal's/Nabbeih Berri's network):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MJXdMvS4J3M

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