Political Graffiti: Lebanon Style

In Beirut and Lebanon in general, you can always tell what, or more precisely "whose" neighborhood/town you are in, due to the political graffiti. I decided that after a number of lengthy posts, and seeing American Graffiti (in Arabic) on TV, that I would post some Lebanese political posters/graffiti for your viewing pleasure.

Three posters for Rafik Hariri, on top a poster for Walid Eido (and his son), all of them were killed in bombings. All were members of the Future Movement. Location: Beirut

Samir Geagea's poster for the Lebanese Forces. Location: Bcharre

Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)

Old posters for Danny Chamoun and his Ahrar Party. Location: Douma

Lebanese University: The orange check marks are for Michel Aoun's Tayyar Party, there are posters of Samir Geagea, Bachir Gemayel (holding the assault rifle), Kataeb (the green and brown cedar tree), and Pierre Amine Gemayel. Location: East Beirut (Achrafieh)

Yes, even the Communists have graffiti here. Location: Beirut (Hamra)

No political graffiti could be complete with out the smiling and waving Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbollah's leader. Location: Baalbek

Graffiti in support of UN resolution 1559, calling for the disarmarment of militias (that means you, Hizbollah) and the withdrawal of Syrian forces for Lebanon is present, right next to posters of George Hawi, the assassinated former head of the LCP (Lebanese Communist Party). Hawi was a longtime Syrian ally who was killed in a carbombing following his formation of the DLM (Democratic Left Movement). The DLM is a secular movement that became very anti-Syrian. Location: Jounieh

Underneath the roadsign is one for Amal (the green one with red stripes). Location: Baalbek

Is War On The Horizon of The Eastern Mediterranean?

I was browsing Michael Totten's website and came upon the article, Feels Like 1967, Redux. To paraphrase, Totten explained how Israel is assuming that at some time this summer an attack will come from Iran, Syria, Lebanon (through Hizbollah), or even al Qaida.

According to WorldTribune.com, "Israeli military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin told the Cabinet that the Jewish state faces five adversaries in what could result in an imminent confrontation. Yadlin cited Iran, Syria, Hizbullah, Hamas and Al Qaida.'Each of these adversaries is capable of sparking a war in the summer,' Yadlin was quoted as saying."

I have serious doubts that al Qaeda could really take Israel on via Lebanon, Gaza, or the W. Bank. They usually operate in Arab/Muslim countries and strike targets within them. One of their few anti-Israel strikes was in Mombassa, Kenya, while this caused great alarm it didn't spark a war.

Hamas is a different ball of wax from al Qaeda. First, Hamas is busy solidifying its control of Gaza and that probably won't be complete, atleast, for a few more weeks. This doesn't mean that they won't try to launch rockets or hit and run attacks against Israel, but I think Olmert is quite wary of sending the army into Gaza so soon after the debacle he managed in Lebanon. One must also consider that Hamas does get some of its orders from Damascus, so if Asad decides he would much rather have a low-intensity war on Israel's southern border he may choose to do that.

As a casual observer who is currently residing in Lebanon, A.K.A the country that is home to Hizbollah and location of the war last July; it is my fundimental belief that if there is a new war against the Jewish state it will be along the same lines as the war last year.

Why Will A War Come?

• Lebanese presidential elections are on September 25th, Syria has been at work this spring and summer knocking off anti-Syrian MPs (namely Walid Eido). Emile Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president of Lebanon is going to have to step down. The last thing Damascus wants is an anti-Syrian Maronite (namely Amine Gemayel or another Maronite from the anti-Syrian Rafik Hariri Martyr List). If a crisis can be made by Damascus, Beirut may have to delay elections, or if Damascus is feeling adventurous it may just contiune knocking off more politicians.

• The current Lebanese Army vs. Fatah al Islam war started around the same time the UN was going to start its tribunal for Rafik Hariri. Syria has a vested interest in keeping Lebanon destabilized at this time. If there is war, how can the UN carry out any investigation?

• Iran is facing internal strife and external pressure. Internally there were numerous riots due to gas rationing. According to the New York Times,
" Unrest spread in Tehran on Thursday, the second day of gasoline rationing in oil-rich Iran, with drivers lining up for miles, gas stations being set on fire and state-run banks and business centers coming under attack.

Dozens were arrested, and the Tehran police chief, Ismail Ahmadi Moghaddam, complained to reporters that the police had been caught unaware by the decision to ration fuel.

The anger posed a keen threat to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was elected two years ago on a platform of bringing income from oil to the nation’s households. Instead, even though Iran is one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, it has been forced to import about 40 percent of its gasoline at an annual cost of $5 billion to make up for shortfalls in its archaic refining industry."

In the Middle East distraction from domestic problems can be solved by a foreign adventure. Due to the success of Hizbollah's last war against Israel, they may feel emboldened to launch another one. If Hizbollah succeeds again then the Iranian leadership could find its way out of another problematic internal situation.

Add that the possibility of the international community pushing for tighter sanctions on the Iranians. Currently the international community is offering Iran a "nuclear time out" I.E. Iran should hold off temporarily from Uranium enrichment. The Iranians could very well ignore the initiative and continue on their current course of enrichment.

• Arms are flowing into Lebanon faster than water out of a faucet. Syria and Iran have been pumping Hizbollah with new arms. The UN has been complaining that Iran and Syria have not been respecting an arms ban into Lebanon.What does someone do when they get new toys? Do I really need to answer this one? All right: THEY USE THEM!

When I talked with the mother of a friend here she was telling me about a new article (I believe it was in An Nahar) that discussed how Hizbollah was ready for a new war against Israel. Many of the Christians here feel a war will break out at any time. Hizbollah has become excedingly powerful and to some extent it has left the Lebanese Christian population to feel immasculated. To quote my friend's mother, "Hizbollah wants to Islamicize Lebanon and have war all the time."

However there is an opposing view. Some on the Lebanese street are convinced no war will come and its simply sabre rattling by both sides. As I am writing this, I asked a Druze girl sitting at the computer next to me whether she thought a war would occur this summer, her answer, "they have been saying that for the past 5 to 6 months, I doubt there will be war." Israel has also been very cautious in regards to its northern border. Following a number of recent Katusyia rocket hits, Jerusalem decided to just ask UNIFIL to do a better job. Granted many people said this attack was from a rouge Palestian group trying to scuttle the cease fire in the south, but Israel did attack the PLO in 1982 after Shlomo Argov was attacked by the Abu Nidal Organization (Abu Nidal and the PLO were both Palestinian groups, but, they hated eachother, Abu Nidal was far more extremely violent and considered the PLO to be a sell out group).
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I'll add a bit more as the time comes. More interviews/travel-logs to come, look out for:

• A trip to Dahiya with a publisher friend (she's great, Ms. Wasta). Dahiya is the HQ of Hizbollah conjoined with a Palestinian refugee camp, and is located in S. Beirut. Currently Dahiya is a pile of rubble due to successive Israeli airstrikes. This should be interesting...

• A trip to Harrisa (حريصا) & Jbeil/Byblos (جبيل). I am going there on Saturday---So look forward to a late night blog post.

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This post is in serious need of additions and editing, so treat the current post as a proto-version of whatever is going to come.

Fatah al Islam: Arabic For Another Syrian Front

By. Phillip

There has been a recently repeated theory that claims that Fatah al Islam is somehow an organization with close ties to al Qaeda. Granted, Fatah al Islam does show Islamist tendencies, such as having a leader, Sheik Shaker Al-'Absi, a man sentenced in absentia to death by Jordanian authorities for the murder of an American diplomat. However, there is overwhelming evidence linking Fatah al Islam to Syria.

Journalist, Nicholas Blanford reported in Time that, “Fatah al-Islam, the group battling the army, has dominated much of the news in Lebanon since it first declared its existence late last year, splitting from Fatah al-Intifadeh, a pro-Syrian Palestinian faction that is headquartered in Damascus.” One must remember that Fatah Intifada was created by the Syrian regime as a Palestinian counter organization to Yasser Arafat and the PLO during the Lebanese Civil War. In addition Fatah Intifada is widely considered just another Syrian proxy (such as the PFLP-GC), and has its headquarters in Damascus.

Recently, in May of 2006 Fatah Initifada was used to stir the Lebanese pot when they attacked the Lebanese army. It isn’t just coincidence that both Fatah Intifadah and Fatah al Islam both have a knack for starting problems by attacking the Lebanese Army. When the Lebanese Army encircled Fatah Intifada last May it was in response to provocative action taken by the group. After Fatah al Islam’s bank robbery there were subsequent raids by the Lebanese Police and Army. Fatah al Islam retaliated by attacking Lebanese Army posts and killing 27 soldiers.

Other Connections:
• Not so ironically, Fatah al Islam launched its attacks on the Lebanese Army during a time when the UN was just beginning a tribunal on the assassination of Rafik Hariri. Any tribunal was expected to call Syrian officials, up to and including President Bashar Asad.
• Fatah al Islam has not attacked any pro-Syrian groups. Many Islamists, especially the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood regard the ruling Alawite minority as apostates. If Fatah al Islam was a true Islamist group, would it not seek to attack them (Syria and many of its proxies are secular) too?

The current spate of assassinations and bombings is obviously due to Asad’s hand. The bombings that occurred in Aley, Achrafieh, and Verdun were more than just operations designed to sew terror in the hearts of average Lebanese, just remember this:

• Aley: in the Druze heartland, not to mention a location where there is a strong PSP
(MP Walid Jumblatt’s party) influence. While Jumblatt has been known to engage in unabashed realpolitik, even before the Cedar Revolution of 2005 he’s been a staunch critic of Syria and a leading member in the March 14th Alliance.
• Verdun: known for being quite luxurious part of Beirut. While being a mixed neighborhood (Nabi Berri owned a residence near to where the Verdun blast occurred) is generally considered to be within another anti-Syrian party’s sphere of influence, the Sunni, Future Movement. This was a message aimed at shaking Saad Hariri, leader of the Future movement and son of slain former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafik Hariri.
• Achrafieh: A Christian part of Beirut, the bombing of a shopping mall in this area had much to do with threatening the Christian base of anti-Syrian coalition. This more specifically targeted parties such as Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party.
• Most of the explosions were small, often in areas frequented by the public (such as shopping malls) but often in off hours. One of the few bombings to have a large death toll was the Walid Eido assassination, which killed 10 others in the process.

The Syrian Mukhabarat is sending a very blunt message to the anti-Syrian parties: Keep defying Damascus and you will get more bombs. This was the same message sent by Syria following the anti-Syrian protests of March 14th. Syria’s bombing campaign included targets (as the bombing campaign has recently) such as anti-Syrian journalists, politicians, and areas where anti-Syrian confessional groups (ie. Druze, Christians, and pro-Hariri Sunnis) reside:

• Assassinations of fervently anti-Syrian politician Gebran Tueni and journalist Samir Kassir. This also includes the assassination attempt on LBC journalist (and candidate for a Maronite seat in the Baabda-Aley district) May Chidac.
• The bombings used small amounts of explosive (ranging from 1- around 50lbs).
• The same style of targets as the current bombing spate were hit, such as a shopping mall in the Christian neighborhood of Zalka.

Walid Eido and Destroying the Majority

After the June 14th murder Walid Eido, a Lebanese friend mentioned to me, “just four more to go.” I asked him what he meant by that and the answer I received was quite startling (I am paraphrasing here), “The Syrians just need to kill 4 more parliamentarians with March 14th, then they [March 14th and other anti-Syrians] won’t have the majority.” Whittling down on the anti-Syrian political majority is most definitely a goal of Damascus. The number of anti-Syrians has now gone down to 68 from 72, if the number goes down to 64 then pro-Syrian elements in Lebanon will undercut the Siniora’s government. Lebanon’s current president, pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud has his term is set to expire on September 25, 2007. Because Lebanon’s president is elected via the parliament, a pro-Syrian majority is a goal desired by Damascus in order to control Lebanon’s presidency.

Useful links on mentioned topics:
BBC Fatah al Islam
ABC: What is Fatah al Islam?

© Copyright http://arzeljabal.blogspot.com/; June 16, 2007