Metn Elections: The History & Results

August 5th was a big day for Lebanon, especially for Metn. Metn's original representative was Pierre Amine Gemayel. Gemayel belonged to the political dynasty of the same name. A strong anti-Syrian and prominent member of the March 14th alliance, he was appointed as Minister of Industry, Pierre Amine was in a position of power. All of this was cut short on November 21, 2006 as bullets were fired into Gemayel's driver's side window where he was sitting. Both he and his body guard were killed. The murder was condemned by the likes of the pope and the UN. America and Canada pointed fingers of responsibility at Syria.

The murder came at a time when Hizbollah, Tayyar (FPM), Amal, and a number of other pro-Syrian parties were to protest the March 14 Alliance led government. Both Hizbollah and Syria condemned the murder, but on the street, and in the government, most people blamed Syria. Circumstantial and later actual evidence; such as the fact that the car used in the assassination was stolen by a Syrian proxy group, the PFLP-GC. Gemayel was the one of many anti-Syrian politicians murdered since 2004. Gemayel's funeral drew about 800,000 mourners. The tension following Pierre Amine's assassination spilled over in December when Hizbollah and its allies held an anti-government rally. As a result the protests grew more violent, pro-government gunmen fired at the crowd. One supporter of Amal was killed, tension in Lebanon was so high that even General Michel Suleiman, commander of Lebanon's army, said the army couldn't contain the spread of violence.

According to some politicos I know within Tayyar (FPM), Kataeb, and the LF, there were many who believed that only violence would result from the election. I, too, was one of those people, I saw the fist fights, heightened aggression, and posturing done by both sides in the run up to the election. I felt as though sporadic shooting would break out between supporters of Michel Aoun and March 14th supporters. Thankfully none of this came to fruition.

Nevertheless we do have the results: Michel Aoun's candidate won. On the pro-March 14th side (that means anti-Syrians) many are seeing the loss of the seat as a technical victory. Now common knowledge would dictate that if one loses a seat then it is a loss, but when one looks at the numbers it is easy to see that a huge, united portion of the population supported Amine Gemayel. The breakdown looks like this:

51% of voters supported the Aounist candidate
49% of voters supported Amine Gemayel

Now, obviously the elections were close, but the main reason Aoun pulled ahead was due to his carefully negotiated alliances. For starters only about 15% of all voters for the Aounist candidate were actual direct Tayyar supporters. The main support for Tayyar actually came from Tachnag, a party that represents Armenian interests and from the blessing of Michel Murr.

What Is Tachnag & Who Is Murr?

Murr was originally a Lebanese Forces supporter in the 1970s to the mid 1980s, but became very pro-Syrian along with his pro-Syrian Lebanese Forces ally Elie Hobeika. Of course Murr hates the current Lebanese Forces leader, Samir Geagea (who supported Amine Gemayel), after Murr and Hobeika were ousted from power by Geagea. When Syria finally conquered Lebanon in 1990, Murr was appointed as the Minister of Interior. Because of his new found power Murr pulled the classic Lebanese move of using his power to create a strong patronage system in his home region (I like to use the term fiefdom). Where was Murr's fiefdom? The Metn area. Top that off with the fact that Murr's son is married into the Lahoud family, the same Lahoud that is currently the pro-Syrian president of Lebanon.

As for Tashnag, it was founded in 1890 to defend Armenian rights and to promulgate Armenian causes. As such, for many Armenians, their loyalty lies with Tashnag. Tashnag (and I'll say this again: typical Lebanese party) ran a very successful mixture of patronage system while also using mafia tactics to retain the loyalty of the Armenians. For more on them I would suggest reading an interesting post by the Ouwet Front Blog. For disclosure purposes this is a direct Lebanese Forces supporting blog (ie pro-Amine Gemayel). Nonetheless, the article written by contributor N10452 was quite interesting. Tashnag is not what I would consider a pro-Syrian party, but one that acts within its own self interests and what it feels (and is often incorrect) is within the Armenians self interest.

Polling & Numbers

From these two groups Aoun got around 70% of the vote. Aoun essentially needs to rely on shaky alliances with outwardly pro-Syrian groups (remember, another 15% of his vote came from the SSNP, quite possibly the most pro-Syrian party in Lebanon). This erodes Aoun's stance that he is essentially the leader of Lebanon's Christians (yes, he has tried this angle a number of times), and that he is completely in favor of Lebanese independence from Syria. He may have fought a war against Damascus, but now most of his support is coming from those who love Asad, a complete 180. Amine Gemayel's 49% of the vote came from a united grouping of Kataeb supporters and Lebanese Forces members. In addition Gemayel grabbed many Christian independent voters. Gemayel recieved about 42% of the Orthodox Christian vote, many Orthodox Christians usually vote for "Arabist" parties (such as the SSNP), as for Maronites Gemayel received about 56-57% of their votes. In general Christian support was very much behind Gemayel.

In the end though, Khoury, Aoun's candidate still has the seat, thus reducing the anti-Syrian majority by one. As for Aoun's attempt to become Lebanon's next president, his recent victory may not be the blessing he hoped for.

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Amine Lost; Aoun Won; Lebanon On The Brink

Cheik Amine Gemayel lost the election in Metn. After hearing from my friends directly involved in the elections I think it might get a bit hairy today. I saw fist fights between Tayyar (the winners, and Michel Aoun's party) and Kataeb (Cheik Amine's party), and from what I've noticed, Lebanon is looking more and more polarized. I hope nothing happens and saner heads prevail.

As for blogging, I am out to Colorado (amazing how I just touched down from Lebanon and I'm out again), I think I am going to take a little break, if any big news comes down the pike I will cover it, when I am out there I am writing one of my more important pieces, and interview with Toni Nissi.


While I am gone I will let my video of a Bedouin playing some music in Palmyra entertain you:



Thanks

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The Phalangists of Sassine Square

This area of Beirut is both scenic, orderly, and quite a location for those Francophones out there. There is a Starbucks, the luxurious ABC mall, $1.5 million apartments and many honking cars, welcome to Sassine Square in Achrafieh. Achrafieh, the mainly Christian area of Beirut is a hotbed of commerce and most of all, of politics, in the middle of the square is a memorial to Bachir Gemayel. The Kataeb Party, also called the Phalanges, is based here. While secular on paper it draws much of its support from Maronites and many Greek Orthodox. To many Christians it is seen as the vanguard of their cause.

Pierre Gemayel the Nationalist & Kataeb

The party is also home to the Gemayel dynasty. The Gemayel family had been prominent Maronites and were an extraordinarily political family since the 1500s. The founder of Kataeb, Pierre Gemayel was once sentenced to death (as was his father and uncle) by Ottoman authorities for supporting an independent Lebanon. Gemayel also tired to launch a revolt against the French Mandate in 1943. The nationalistic Pierre Gemayel once said, "If my death would bring peace to this land, then wrap me in the Lebanese flag and burn me beneath the cedars."

Even though Pierre Gemayel had influence, Kataeb was still a minor party in the Lebanese poltical scene. Only in 1958 when Gemayel supported Camille Chamoun against pan-Arabist forces (led by Kamal Jumblatt, Walid Jumblatt's father) was he finally awarded with more power.

As with many Maronite and Christian parties, Kataeb considered Lebanese Christians to be a separate ethnic group from Arab Muslims. Kataeb, and its founder never supported Lebanon's inclusion in pan-Arab movements, such as the Arab League. Pierre, while an advocate and supporter of Palestinian rights, felt that the "Arab cause" (ie the Palestinian cause) only weakened Lebanon and drew it into more wars.

In the 1970s when militarism spread like wildfire through Lebanon, Kataeb was one of the main Christian parties to organize a militia and a military planning group, which was referred to by Kataeb higher-ups as, "the Security Council." Pierre Gemayel even played a role in the start of the Lebanese War.

Lebanon's War

In 1975, because of his right wing leanings and his aversion to Palestinian influence in Lebanon, Palestinian groups (this is speculation on my part, the gunmen were unknown) tried to have him assassinated (that operation killed four people) and then launched mortars into Christian areas of Beirut. Following his attempted assassination, Kataeb militiamen fired on a bus carrying DFLP/PFLP (Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine/ Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine) members killing 27-30. Many say the bus occupants were armed, but others disagree.

During the war the party had many distinct attributes. For starters it was the lead organization in the Lebanese Front and later the Lebanese Forces. Pierre Gemayel's son, Bachir Gemayel was both the leader of the Lebanese Forces, and then in 1982 became the president elect of Lebanon. Bachir was known for his Machiavellian tendencies, and soon he and Kateab dominated the Lebanese Front/Forces. Later in September, 1982 a Syrian bomb (planted by the SSNP) ripped through Bachir Gemayel's meeting in Achrafieh, killing him and many others.

During the war the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb sought covert funding and arms from Israel. Even today many Christians are pro-Western and pro-Israel. Originally in 1976 the LF supported Syria's intervention in Lebanon against Palestinian and leftist forces. Later (around 1978), the LF reversed its position and saw Syria not as a liberator but what it was actually doing, using the war as an excuse for occupying Lebanon. The LF fought a protracted war against the Syrians and in 1978 actually won many battles. However, after numerous internal power struggles, and fighting against opposing Lebanese militias and the Lebanese Army, commanded by Michel Aoun, Kataeb and the Lebanese Forces were crushed.

Its interesting to note that the Lebanese Forces used to be considered an armed wing of Kataeb. After an internal coup launched by Elie Hobieka (the same man who carried out the Sabra and Chatilla massacres against the Palestinians) and Samir Geagea (pronounced JaJa), and then another coup which displaced Hobieka (mainly because of his signing of the Tripartite accord and his closeness to Syria), Samir Geagea transformed the Lebanese Forces into a separate political, militia, and patronage group. In the 80s and 90s (especially during Syrian occupation) Kataeb was dramatically weakened. Only following Syria's pullout did Kataeb have a resurgence in influence when they first joined the Qornet Shehwan Gathering, a mainly anti-Syrian grouping.

I had always been interested in the Kataeb party. Many Western commentators describe it as "Fascist," because of its modeling after Fransisco Francos Phalanges, and heavy use of the Roman salute. From my own research, the party seems is most definitely not Naziesque. The main reason for the name, salutes, and other quasi-Fascist aspects of the party arouse from Pierre Gemayel's admiration of the strength shown by European Fascist groups, a unity of strength rarely seen in sectarian ridden Lebanon. Economically Kataeb is most definitely not Fascist, it is more along the lines of a Labour or Christian Democratic style party in Europe.

Christian Isolation, Western Guilt & The Metn Meltdown

I visited "Bayt Kataeb" (Kataeb House) in Achrafieh a number of times over the past week. The offices are located in a white house with green shutters. On top of the house is a large poster of Bachir Gemayel, towards the middle there is a huge cut out image of Bachir Gemayel. A stylized triangular cedar tree is a symbol all over. Before one approaches Bayt Kataeb there is a collection of 6 mulberry trees in rows of 3, parallel from each other. This exact location was the site of Bachir Gemayel's murder in 1982. An illuminated torch, a wall with "Wanabqa" (we will always be here; this refers to Christians in Lebanon) written on it, and a brass plaque mark the site where he and others fell due to a Syrian bomb. To many Christians Bachir is a hero, and remains what could have been the solution to Lebanon's problems in the early 1980s. The common phrase heard is "Bachir Hay Fina" (Bachir lives inside of us).

The staff of Kataeb is incredibly pro-Western. As an American I was thanked numerous times for the support America gave to Lebanon. At the same time however these Lebanese also voiced their anger that Lebanon had been used as a bargaining chip in the "game" of Middle East politics. I was asked a number of times what Americans thought about Lebanon, "did they think it was all bombs?", "why do Americans not support us? We are Christians" said another. I met an older, bohemian looking man who was an elite fighter with the Lebanese Forces before Samir Geagea took control of it. He spoke no English but he smiled at me, you could see the tension in his eyes when I mentioned I was living in Hamra (a mainly Muslim area of West Beirut). After years of fighting, the Muslims were still his enemy. I was asked a number of times when America or Israel would start supplying the Christians with weapons, I could do nothing more than say, "America wanted the area to be stable", and ask "why would you need the weapons?" The answer I got wasn't the aggressive one I had originally expected, "we need to protect ourselves, many Muslims, especially Nasrallah, don't want Christians to be in Lebanon anymore." The main thing I kept hearing though was that, "Christian Lebanon is a light to the Christians of the Middle East, we are the only sizable number left, we give the other Christians hope."

I thought a lot about the awful press Kataeb and its fellow Christian parties received following events such as the Sabra and Chatilla massacre (carried out by Kataeb commander Elie Hobieka), and the things written about them by authors such as Robert Fisk. I believe much of it has to do with "Western guilt." We as Westerners feel guilty about our colonial/imperialistic/corporate mindset/history and so we beat ourselves up for it, often seeing forces that our are complete enemy (take the PLO or Hizbollah) sympathetically. We choose to ignore the injustices our actual enemy is doing, simply because we feel guilty in doing so.

Kataeb has been pro-Western, its supporters identify themselves with the US and France, nevertheless Americans see the Sabra and Chatilla massacres and are completely disgusted by Kataeb. However, many Americans haven't even heard of massacres commited by Syrian groups or the Palestinians. There were many, such as the Damour Massacre (600-800 were killed, and a village was destroyed), or the Massacre in Chekka (hundreds were killed).
Even Muslim on Muslim massacres were barely covered, for instance there was a second Sabra and Chatilla massacre carried out by Shi'ite Amal fighters, up to 1200 Palestinians were killed, that's many more dead than in the Kataeb massacre of the Palestinians. If you ask many American intellectuals (especially in the group I am with here at LAU) who the Phalange were the typical answer is, "a bunch of crazed nazi Christians who murdered Palestinians." Whey you ask them about the other massacres, especially those against Christians, it is simply written off. Am I condoning Hobieka's or some in Kataeb's actions? Most definately not! The murder of innocent people is a deplorable act, and yes, many Christians feel as though the Palestinians deserved it. However, I am trying to be far more objective than many Middle Eastern "expert" popinjays, who want to make the Middle East into a "black and white", "good (represented by terrorist groups such as Hizbollah or the PLO) vs. evil (Kataeb, Israel, or even the United States)" world.

The other reason I was at Bayt Kataeb was because of the Metn elections. Metn is an area that encompasses portions of East Beirut up through Bikfaya. The reason there are elections is because the MP from the area, Pierre Amine Gemayel, was assassinated by pro-Syrian bullets in his car. His father, former Lebanese president Amine Gemayel was running to takeover his murdered son's seat. Almost out of the blue, Michel Aoun's Tayyar movement contested the seat by running Camille Koury. To many this was doing Pierre Amine Gemayel's murderers a service. Tayyar is now in the pro-Syrian camp (along with Hizbollah, Bachir Gemayel's killers---the SSNP, Amal, and Franjieh's Marada), it was Syria's goal to knock off as many March 14th politicians as possible.

The elections are planned for August 5th (a day after I leave to go back to the US) and many have speculated they will turn violent. For instance in Sassine there was a Kataeb/Ouwet (Lebanese Forces) convoy of cars with flags waving. As the stopped some Tayyar members tried to beat up the Kataeb supporters. Fist fights are becoming a common occurance. This all reminded me of the December 2006-Febuary 2007 protests that ended up in sporadic violence.

The situation isn't helped by the fact that both sides have armarments. In one instance I was shown a collection of AK-47s by one of the parties, and was then requested, semi-jokingly to "tell George Bush we need more." There was some glimmer of hope out of all of the troubles, while talking to a younger member of Kataeb, I asked if he hated Michel Aoun and his followers, he answered, "they are my cousins, my aunt, my uncle, we can't just go kill them." The Christians of Lebanon are, for lack of better terms, split down the middle. I talked to a pollster friend in Bikfaya (the main area where the election will be held) and so-far it was 49% favoring Michel Aoun and 51% in favor of Gemayel. The closer these numbers get, the more tension will result. Already most Lebanese are anticipating a huge amount of violence. If Aoun wins this seat, his ultimate goal, the presidency of Lebanon is his for the taking.



Here is a movie I made of Bayt Kataeb. I didn't film/wasn't allowed to film the building for security reasons.



This is a short clip I took inside an old Mercedes cab, it shows the Hizbollah/Tayyar/Amal/SSNP/Marada protest in the downtown area. If you look closely, you can see orange flags (Tayyar's color) with the Omega symbol on it. In addition some yellow Hizbollah flags are present.

Pictures:

1. Sassine Square. Note the Bachir Gemayel statue.

2. A ripped poster of Ramzi Irani, a kinapped member of the LF student union. Ramzi's body was found in the trunk of a car near my school on Rue Hamra. Next to the poster is a Lebanese Forces cross.

3. A side shot of the Bachir Gemayel memorial.

4. The Kataeb party sign when entering Bayt Kataeb. The sign reads: Kataeb Lebnania, "Lebanese Kataeb."

5. This is a shot in Sassine of a Tayyar convoy, led by a Chevy Surburban. They drove while waving orange flags and blasting Lebanese army songs out of the back on a huge stereo.

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