Metn Elections: The History & Results

August 5th was a big day for Lebanon, especially for Metn. Metn's original representative was Pierre Amine Gemayel. Gemayel belonged to the political dynasty of the same name. A strong anti-Syrian and prominent member of the March 14th alliance, he was appointed as Minister of Industry, Pierre Amine was in a position of power. All of this was cut short on November 21, 2006 as bullets were fired into Gemayel's driver's side window where he was sitting. Both he and his body guard were killed. The murder was condemned by the likes of the pope and the UN. America and Canada pointed fingers of responsibility at Syria.

The murder came at a time when Hizbollah, Tayyar (FPM), Amal, and a number of other pro-Syrian parties were to protest the March 14 Alliance led government. Both Hizbollah and Syria condemned the murder, but on the street, and in the government, most people blamed Syria. Circumstantial and later actual evidence; such as the fact that the car used in the assassination was stolen by a Syrian proxy group, the PFLP-GC. Gemayel was the one of many anti-Syrian politicians murdered since 2004. Gemayel's funeral drew about 800,000 mourners. The tension following Pierre Amine's assassination spilled over in December when Hizbollah and its allies held an anti-government rally. As a result the protests grew more violent, pro-government gunmen fired at the crowd. One supporter of Amal was killed, tension in Lebanon was so high that even General Michel Suleiman, commander of Lebanon's army, said the army couldn't contain the spread of violence.

According to some politicos I know within Tayyar (FPM), Kataeb, and the LF, there were many who believed that only violence would result from the election. I, too, was one of those people, I saw the fist fights, heightened aggression, and posturing done by both sides in the run up to the election. I felt as though sporadic shooting would break out between supporters of Michel Aoun and March 14th supporters. Thankfully none of this came to fruition.

Nevertheless we do have the results: Michel Aoun's candidate won. On the pro-March 14th side (that means anti-Syrians) many are seeing the loss of the seat as a technical victory. Now common knowledge would dictate that if one loses a seat then it is a loss, but when one looks at the numbers it is easy to see that a huge, united portion of the population supported Amine Gemayel. The breakdown looks like this:

51% of voters supported the Aounist candidate
49% of voters supported Amine Gemayel

Now, obviously the elections were close, but the main reason Aoun pulled ahead was due to his carefully negotiated alliances. For starters only about 15% of all voters for the Aounist candidate were actual direct Tayyar supporters. The main support for Tayyar actually came from Tachnag, a party that represents Armenian interests and from the blessing of Michel Murr.

What Is Tachnag & Who Is Murr?

Murr was originally a Lebanese Forces supporter in the 1970s to the mid 1980s, but became very pro-Syrian along with his pro-Syrian Lebanese Forces ally Elie Hobeika. Of course Murr hates the current Lebanese Forces leader, Samir Geagea (who supported Amine Gemayel), after Murr and Hobeika were ousted from power by Geagea. When Syria finally conquered Lebanon in 1990, Murr was appointed as the Minister of Interior. Because of his new found power Murr pulled the classic Lebanese move of using his power to create a strong patronage system in his home region (I like to use the term fiefdom). Where was Murr's fiefdom? The Metn area. Top that off with the fact that Murr's son is married into the Lahoud family, the same Lahoud that is currently the pro-Syrian president of Lebanon.

As for Tashnag, it was founded in 1890 to defend Armenian rights and to promulgate Armenian causes. As such, for many Armenians, their loyalty lies with Tashnag. Tashnag (and I'll say this again: typical Lebanese party) ran a very successful mixture of patronage system while also using mafia tactics to retain the loyalty of the Armenians. For more on them I would suggest reading an interesting post by the Ouwet Front Blog. For disclosure purposes this is a direct Lebanese Forces supporting blog (ie pro-Amine Gemayel). Nonetheless, the article written by contributor N10452 was quite interesting. Tashnag is not what I would consider a pro-Syrian party, but one that acts within its own self interests and what it feels (and is often incorrect) is within the Armenians self interest.

Polling & Numbers

From these two groups Aoun got around 70% of the vote. Aoun essentially needs to rely on shaky alliances with outwardly pro-Syrian groups (remember, another 15% of his vote came from the SSNP, quite possibly the most pro-Syrian party in Lebanon). This erodes Aoun's stance that he is essentially the leader of Lebanon's Christians (yes, he has tried this angle a number of times), and that he is completely in favor of Lebanese independence from Syria. He may have fought a war against Damascus, but now most of his support is coming from those who love Asad, a complete 180. Amine Gemayel's 49% of the vote came from a united grouping of Kataeb supporters and Lebanese Forces members. In addition Gemayel grabbed many Christian independent voters. Gemayel recieved about 42% of the Orthodox Christian vote, many Orthodox Christians usually vote for "Arabist" parties (such as the SSNP), as for Maronites Gemayel received about 56-57% of their votes. In general Christian support was very much behind Gemayel.

In the end though, Khoury, Aoun's candidate still has the seat, thus reducing the anti-Syrian majority by one. As for Aoun's attempt to become Lebanon's next president, his recent victory may not be the blessing he hoped for.

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