It is easy for the losing side to often mutter the line, "you [the victor] won the battle, but lost the war", however after the 3 day bloodletting which resulted in 18 killed, al Mustaqbal TV/Newspaper offices being burnt to the ground, and most of West Beirut coming under the control of Amal and Hizbollah forces this adage is becoming increasingly true.
Finally, following their coup attempt, Hizbollah can be declared a full fledged militia. All of the commentators who would always try to insert a, "of all things Hizbollah wants to prevent a Sunni-Shia war" have now been proven wrong, and then some. Hizbollah has backed itself into a wall, either a real shooting war will start or one side will have to back down. The Sunnis under Hariri and Druze under Walid Jumblatt played an interesting yet realistic card. Their small less developed militias engaged in what could be termed a moribund defense of West Beirut, they knew they would lose. Hizbollah used its special units and masses of supporters to open it's way to occupy the Western part of the city, this in turn will help the March 14th coalition maintain a position in the moral high ground.
Politically this move can have many upsides. For starters, March 14th was by all accounts on the defense vs. stronger more well equipped forces: In essence the legitimately elected government fighting pro-Syrian militias who refused to negotiate an end to the political deadlock. Of course, West Beirut still smolders and has now entered into a new era (who knows how long this will last?) of Hizbollah occupation. Nonetheless in the PR battle, March 14th won out, they stood by their democratic credentials and instead of relying on party militias they looked to the army to be their defenders. Of course the army didn't step in (they fear a sectarian split up like what happened in '76, '84, and again in '89), I will fault the army for this, they are a govt. institution and essentially sat around as West Beirut 2008 turned into West Beirut 1985. As my friend has as his MSN nickname, "Neutrality is not watching a crime silently."
There is a complete downside to this: All out war. What then? I have spoken to my Lebanese friends almost constantly since the events started to get out of hand. The Christians think they need to re-arm. Personally, I can't blame them, but even they don't have the training, battle readiness or a good supply of ammunition as Hizbollah does. As I stated above, March 14th won the major PR and fact based victory, aka Hizbollah is a militia, it has no respect for the authority of Lebanese government, and pro-Syrian factions will do anything (save actually working with the government) to regain power. This was a coup! However, a realist could look at this and say, "Hizbollah has the boots on the ground, they have all the power." If they drive into E. Beirut and take out what could shape up to be a Christian/March 14th Muslim resistance, Syria will return to the country in full force---Goodbye Cedar Revolution!
© All Rights Reserved; www.ArzelJabal.blogspot.com
Showing posts with label Saad Hariri. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saad Hariri. Show all posts
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Friday, May 9, 2008
Muqawma, A Synonym for Coup De'ta?
I needed to let out some emotion; Most of my pieces are cut and dry travel logs/analysis/political articles, but I needed to release.
Another protest, because of what? Oh, they just sacked the Beirut Airport security head because he was spying for Hizbollah? ... There is something new, oh, and they are shutting down Hizbollah's communications systems, ok. It all looked like normal posturing and an interesting move by the government to undertake, Nasrallah will probably just launch into a tirade and set a few tires on fire.
Only this time he did, but went further, much further.
The "conflict" between March 14th and the "Opposition" (aka the Christian FPM, Shia Muslim Amal and Hizbollah, with help from the SSNP and Marada) had been brewing for the past few months considering no president has been elected. March 14th has tried time and time again to push a "compromise candidate" such as General Suleiman, but to no avail. Hizbollah and her allies keep pushing for the power of veto (that sounds like something you would hear on the show Survivor; Hm...Survivor Beirut? Irony), however this would kill any president the majority would want to elect, not to mention essentially be a defacto veto coup for Hizbollah. So the elections never happened, March 14th couldn't muster the courage to elect a good person for the presidency, and Hizbollah kept up its militant attitude, launching a protest every now and then.
Fast forward to three days ago. Everything in my first paragraph happened. Hizbollah and Amal rioted, Shia speaker of parliament and head of the Amal party called for "talks" (that's opposition slang for we are going to burn things unless you do as we demand) and the road to Beirut International Airport was closed...It had happened before, no one in the foreign media really paid attention, I did, but I monitored events sporadically.
Then the fun started today. Nasrallah addressed his adoring masses and accused the government of "declaring war against the Lebanese resistance (aka Hizbollah)" through the government closure of the communications lines. In "celebration" Amal and Hizbollah broke out the RPGs, Kalashnikovs and M16s to "celebrate", only this time instead of firing into the air, they fired into Sunni neighborhoods in Beirut. They clashed with Saad Hariri's al Mustaqbal (the Furture Movement) militia. They fired their RPG's into buildings. Special Hizbollah forces made it as far as Rue Hamra, seizing a number of buildings. Amal is storming up the coastal axis towards the Rouche. The airport remains closed, and the Sunni-Shia version of April 13, 1976 is now upon Beirut.
Beirut is being seized, taken by Nasrallah, a prize for his friends who sit upon their Persian throwns. I think back to my time in Beirut, if I was there now, with what is going on, I would literally be in the heart of the battle. Tonight I had lunch with a Lebanese friend, I figured the Lebanese disturbances may have just been a larger version of what happened in Dec, 2006, those had fizzled out. I took the train home, happy and content to have had a great conversation with my new friend. I came home to look at the news: Hizbollah is running rampant in Beirut. The battle is where I was. I went to school for the summer at LAU, its environs are now filled with Mustaqbal, Amal and Hizbollah combatants.
The positions keep changing, the Rouche, Beirut's two huge stones that rise from the Mediterranean like spines off a stegosaurus now form the backdrop to Amal's putsch up the Corniche. On my third day in Beirut, my first walk that I engaged in alone was to the Rouche, it's also the day I learned people often would end their own existence by jumping from the rocks. On the famous, swanky Rue Hamra I would swing by Nandos restaurant with my friend Mohammed and walk to the Radio Shack up from the restaurant. The only fighting was between myself and Mohammed over who would take the check (a common Lebanese past time), now Hizbollah special forces control some buildings in the area. Last summer I had a mediocre meal of what seemed to be canned corn, once packaged French fries and some form of a frozen burger at Roadsters, it baffled me how Lebanese, so obsessed with their appearance and class image could be suckered in to spend $13 (American prices +) for so-so food. Now Roadsters has become a point of semi-demarcation between Hizbollah fighters and Mustaqbal defenders.
After fighting over differences in opinion (political arguments: another Lebanese past time [sometimes executed using firearms, other times minus them]) regarding Barack Obama. My friend, a Lebanese who worked in Hamra, she, a Christian, couldn't get to work. From her comments this morning I should have known Lebanon was in store for something else, I ignored it, I ignored the warnings I knew were there, war was on Lebanon's horizon. My friend, in this calm and sweet disposition she usually presents in any conversation, set a rain check for when we could have a meal at Nandos, I hope the place is still standing if I get to go back.
I am up at this ungodly hour because I am upset, I feel like my mind went through a deep frier, and I am not even in Beirut, I can't see the black smoke rising from these places that I had so many memories in...It still hurts though.
© All Rights Reserved; www.ArzelJabal.blogspot.com
Another protest, because of what? Oh, they just sacked the Beirut Airport security head because he was spying for Hizbollah? ... There is something new, oh, and they are shutting down Hizbollah's communications systems, ok. It all looked like normal posturing and an interesting move by the government to undertake, Nasrallah will probably just launch into a tirade and set a few tires on fire.
Only this time he did, but went further, much further.The "conflict" between March 14th and the "Opposition" (aka the Christian FPM, Shia Muslim Amal and Hizbollah, with help from the SSNP and Marada) had been brewing for the past few months considering no president has been elected. March 14th has tried time and time again to push a "compromise candidate" such as General Suleiman, but to no avail. Hizbollah and her allies keep pushing for the power of veto (that sounds like something you would hear on the show Survivor; Hm...Survivor Beirut? Irony), however this would kill any president the majority would want to elect, not to mention essentially be a defacto veto coup for Hizbollah. So the elections never happened, March 14th couldn't muster the courage to elect a good person for the presidency, and Hizbollah kept up its militant attitude, launching a protest every now and then.
Fast forward to three days ago. Everything in my first paragraph happened. Hizbollah and Amal rioted, Shia speaker of parliament and head of the Amal party called for "talks" (that's opposition slang for we are going to burn things unless you do as we demand) and the road to Beirut International Airport was closed...It had happened before, no one in the foreign media really paid attention, I did, but I monitored events sporadically.
Then the fun started today. Nasrallah addressed his adoring masses and accused the government of "declaring war against the Lebanese resistance (aka Hizbollah)" through the government closure of the communications lines. In "celebration" Amal and Hizbollah broke out the RPGs, Kalashnikovs and M16s to "celebrate", only this time instead of firing into the air, they fired into Sunni neighborhoods in Beirut. They clashed with Saad Hariri's al Mustaqbal (the Furture Movement) militia. They fired their RPG's into buildings. Special Hizbollah forces made it as far as Rue Hamra, seizing a number of buildings. Amal is storming up the coastal axis towards the Rouche. The airport remains closed, and the Sunni-Shia version of April 13, 1976 is now upon Beirut.
Beirut is being seized, taken by Nasrallah, a prize for his friends who sit upon their Persian throwns. I think back to my time in Beirut, if I was there now, with what is going on, I would literally be in the heart of the battle. Tonight I had lunch with a Lebanese friend, I figured the Lebanese disturbances may have just been a larger version of what happened in Dec, 2006, those had fizzled out. I took the train home, happy and content to have had a great conversation with my new friend. I came home to look at the news: Hizbollah is running rampant in Beirut. The battle is where I was. I went to school for the summer at LAU, its environs are now filled with Mustaqbal, Amal and Hizbollah combatants.
The positions keep changing, the Rouche, Beirut's two huge stones that rise from the Mediterranean like spines off a stegosaurus now form the backdrop to Amal's putsch up the Corniche. On my third day in Beirut, my first walk that I engaged in alone was to the Rouche, it's also the day I learned people often would end their own existence by jumping from the rocks. On the famous, swanky Rue Hamra I would swing by Nandos restaurant with my friend Mohammed and walk to the Radio Shack up from the restaurant. The only fighting was between myself and Mohammed over who would take the check (a common Lebanese past time), now Hizbollah special forces control some buildings in the area. Last summer I had a mediocre meal of what seemed to be canned corn, once packaged French fries and some form of a frozen burger at Roadsters, it baffled me how Lebanese, so obsessed with their appearance and class image could be suckered in to spend $13 (American prices +) for so-so food. Now Roadsters has become a point of semi-demarcation between Hizbollah fighters and Mustaqbal defenders.
After fighting over differences in opinion (political arguments: another Lebanese past time [sometimes executed using firearms, other times minus them]) regarding Barack Obama. My friend, a Lebanese who worked in Hamra, she, a Christian, couldn't get to work. From her comments this morning I should have known Lebanon was in store for something else, I ignored it, I ignored the warnings I knew were there, war was on Lebanon's horizon. My friend, in this calm and sweet disposition she usually presents in any conversation, set a rain check for when we could have a meal at Nandos, I hope the place is still standing if I get to go back.
I am up at this ungodly hour because I am upset, I feel like my mind went through a deep frier, and I am not even in Beirut, I can't see the black smoke rising from these places that I had so many memories in...It still hurts though.
© All Rights Reserved; www.ArzelJabal.blogspot.com
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)